nj2va Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 18z GEFS mean 24 hour QPF runs the 0.5" line right through SE DC and pretty much along 95 through MD. 0.25" is out in eastern WV. I'd take that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Guess you are not too optimistic. You really think that it will be OTS That is the trend. I want for us to get drilled but we have been screwed all winter. Why would it change now. I don't like the progressive nature of the trough. Ridge out west not amped enough and the low could very well be a southern slider. How many elongated fast moving southern lows actually work out for us? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I agree it's 1 run but the fact that it's 18z is irrelevant. The runs are what they given the conditions at the time. This run factored in stronger confluence. The point is why panic over ONE run of ONE model when there isn't even a consensus yet on a storm that is days away unless you truly believe that this is the final solution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The point is why panic over ONE run of ONE model when there isn't even a consensus yet on a storm that is days away unless you truly believe that this is the final solution. the red tagger above this post seems to think panic is in order. Who am I to argue? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 That is the trend. I want for us to get drilled but we have been screwed all winter. Why would it change now. I don't like the progressive nature of the trough. Ridge out west not amped enough and the low could very well be a southern slider. How many elongated fast moving southern lows actually work out for us? Good enough. I am in no position to argue anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 the red tagger above this post seems to think panic is in order. Who am I to argue? Having a storm produce a solid hit at day 5 and 6 in the models has been a trend all season...only to fade away as we draw near. Not saying it won't happen but it hasn't worked out yet. There aren't any good signals for it. Cold high moves off the coast, western ridge not too amped and nothing to really phase or block in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I love most people are already on the ledger. Saturday 12z suite is the one to watch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 According to the 18 UT GFS, Dulles actually gets more precipitation from Saturday's clipper(0.07") than from Wednesday's coastal (0.04"). Call me skeptical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 According to the 18 UT GFS, Dulles actually gets more precipitation from Saturday's clipper(0.07") than from Wednesday's coastal (0.04"). Call me skeptical. It's on to something ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Having a storm produce a solid hit at day 5 and 6 in the models has been a trend all season...only to fade away as we draw near. Not saying it won't happen but it hasn't worked out yet. There aren't any good signals for it. Cold high moves off the coast, western ridge not too amped and nothing to really phase or block in. This is really only the second or third solid five day hit..and it probably will fade. But yeah I agree with all of the above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So we're rooting for the northern stream further west and the southern stream quicker so it phases. This is the kind of solution that will jump 200 miles inside 72hrs. The +AO and +NAO make it hard for DC to get a snowstorm, but it can still happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The problem really is that most of the vorticity is up in the great lakes and progressively pushing the southern energy east. Ideally I would think we would want to see that vorticity consolidated at the base of the trough along the gulf of mexico. I guess there's still time for some sort of phase to occur, but the signals aren't really there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So we're rooting for the northern stream further west and the southern stream quicker so it phases. This is the kind of solution that will jump 200 miles inside 72hrs. The +AO and +NAO make it hard for DC to get a snowstorm, but it can still happen. Right, models don't "trend" for five days up through verification. They're still in the jumping around range. The trending happens in the shorter term when actual forecast amounts need to be disseminated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I definitely don't want to come off as defeating or a Debbie downer. I'm a snow lover like everyone. I spent much of the day digging through models and it's tough to get excited for a setup like this. I hope it turns for the best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I'd favor a less than great solution but it is early. I however don't think we want to see the southern wave speed up at this pt it's running away and getting deflected. Might highlight a problem with declaring a huge pattern change for the better tho. N stream still seems to be dominant and messing with stuff even if we do have some southern juice to play with in theory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 By my count, there were 7 gfs members that were good...at different time frames. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 By my count, there were 7 gfs members that were good...at different time frames. What were the looks of those 7 good members, as far as the evolution, strength and track of the lows? Just trying to figure out what to pull for here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 the red tagger above this post seems to think panic is in order. Who am I to argue? Meh...it's one run. It's 120 hours out. You seriously hanging on one run? Ugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Meh...it's one run. It's 120 hours out. You seriously hanging on one run? Ugh No I don't want to be that guy. It is one run and I have been staying up for the Euro since December so maybe I am being a bit impulsive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 By my count, there were 7 gfs members that were good...at different time frames. I don't care, I'm only interested in the one that has the bomb over the Shenandoah. It won't verify but it's awesome to look at, and I can deal with the change to rain if I get 20" in 6 hrs.first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 even if it goes out to sea, no matter because the CFS2 says MAR is cold AND wet....and it keeps trending colder each day! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20150212.201503.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20150212.201503.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
motsco Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 even if it goes out to sea, no matter because the CFS2 says MAR is cold AND wet....and it keeps trending colder each day! http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaT2m.20150212.201503.gif http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/mchen/CFSv2FCST/monthly/images/CFSv2.NaPrec.20150212.201503.gif yeah..a computer model making a forcast. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 yeah..a computer model making a forcast. lol. it was spot on with this JAN and FEB's cold and trough placements and dead on last year with temps/precip too you don't have to believe it, but it stands a better than average chance of verifying Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I love most people are already on the ledger. Saturday 12z suite is the one to watch Are they in the debit or credit column? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What were the looks of those 7 good members, as far as the evolution, strength and track of the lows? Just trying to figure out what to pull for here. Looked like pretty classic tracks for good snows in the area. All were about the same....timing was only diff. I only briefly looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Are they in the debit or credit column? Debt according to this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Biggest run of the year (again X 10) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Biggest run of the year (again X 10) Get ready to get crushed, one way or another. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What, no 00Z NAM extrapolations? Sorry...but after this place turned into a veritable morgue after the 18Z GFS, I thought we needed a laugh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Get ready to get crushed, one way or another. I honestly don't expect that, either good or bad. Probably be enough to keep us looking tomorrow (or at the Euro later, but I'm not staying up for that regardless of what the GFS shows). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.