MacintoshPro Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This is not a good trend, IMO. I too tend to think that the 18z runs are sometimes outliers in their own right but that's hardly scientific. My guess is that the 0z runs tonight will tell the story for this storm for us. We won't have to sweat it out all weekend (unless we see marked improvement tonight). Would a 2-3" storm with cold temps be that bad? I think we all got our expectations up, but a nice couple inches of powder is nicer than a few inches of slop followed by a driving rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I am rooting for 18z GEFS member P001 965mb low Over Lurray. Quite a range of solutions still. None of them count until 60hrs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Would a 2-3" storm with cold temps be that bad? I think we all got our expectations up, but a nice couple inches of powder is nicer than a few inches of slop followed by a driving rain. Not at all. But I think with this one it's go big or go home. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Would a 2-3" storm with cold temps be that bad? I think we all got our expectations up, but a nice couple inches of powder is nicer than a few inches of slop followed by a driving rain. A few inches would be fantastic but the trend has been farther east and less amplification. In the early snowy runs we were getting the "front end thump" coming from the south west with a somewhat wound up, wet storm, and the latest run of the GFS has us relying on a coastal that has been pushed off the coast. Somewhat simple in the explanation but the trend has been ongoing for the past 24 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Would a 2-3" storm with cold temps be that bad? I think we all got our expectations up, but a nice couple inches of powder is nicer than a few inches of slop followed by a driving rain. No it would be great. But with a trend like this...meaning several ticks SE over the last 6 runs...most of us fear it just heads further SE until it's only BOS that gets hit..which I am confident is more a possibly at this point...but what the heck we are powerless either way so might as well let it roll...and pick up some more vodka Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Obviously this one will miss south, swing around, and hit Boston. Book it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I bet 00Z will show the same look and then panic will really set in. Yup... I mean every successive run of the globals have trended south and east... That's where its heading as we get closer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm not overly concerned with a suppressed track at this point. Seasonal trend, FWIW, is certainly to move things N/W with time. I still think a OH Valley track is well in-play with a thump to mix/drizzle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm not overly concerned with a suppressed track at this point. Seasonal trend, FWIW, is certainly to move things N/W with time. I still think a OH Valley track is well in-play with a thump to mix/drizzle.I would take that in a heart beat at this point. Maybe not OH valley. Do you think that is in play because no blocking or because of the seasonal trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm not overly concerned with a suppressed track at this point. Seasonal trend, FWIW, is certainly to move things N/W with time. I still think a OH Valley track is well in-play with a thump to mix/drizzle.I'd be pretty surprised if it went back to a west track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'd be pretty surprised if it went back to a west track. So would I. Obviously, we can't rule anything out..but it seems unlikely. Looks like suppression is our bug-a-boo this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I would take that in a heart beat at this point. Maybe not OH valley. Do you think that is in play because no blocking or because of the seasonal trend? I'd be pretty surprised if it went back to a west track. Mostly because of no blocking. We have strong confluence forecast at the moment which is forcing the track to the south, but that confluence is based on the joint positions of multiple northern stream s/w's being in particular positions at a certain time. Lots of moving parts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 So would I. Obviously, we can't rule anything out..but it seems unlikely. Looks like suppression is our bug-a-boo this time.just took a nose dive back into our comfortable valley Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Would a 2-3" storm with cold temps be that bad? I think we all got our expectations up, but a nice couple inches of powder is nicer than a few inches of slop followed by a driving rain. 18Z GFS is not 2-3 for anyone north and west of the cities. Like I said last week. A suppressed storm would be the perfect end to this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 just took a nose dive back into our comfortable valley I think we're ok. I'm cool with S and E (hi winterwxluvr) right now. I want to see the good track on Sunday at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Here's the last 4 18z GFS runs. You can see how the confluence changes based on the position of the northern stream s/w's and how far they dig. The track of the storm is very sensitive to that confluence. I don't really trust that the 18z GFS has those positions perfectly right at 4.5-5 days out. I think anything between a OH Valley/Apps track to a suppressed slider is still within the realm of possibilities. What probably can be ruled out at this stage is a big cutter towards Chicago/Cleveland/Detroit and something sliding off the coast of Wilmington, NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Mostly because of no blocking. We have strong confluence forecast at the moment which is forcing the track to the south, but that confluence is based on the joint positions of multiple northern stream s/w's being in particular positions at a certain time. Lots of moving parts.It's definitely not impossible and I would be less surprised to see it come back north or run over us. Further west than that I dunno. Not sure that was ever the best answer with this one to begin with.We do relatively frequently see confluence end up not as strong as shown from range. With that northern wave digging it seems unlikely it would come too far north/west unless there's a full early phase which I wouldnt expect for now. Problem with midday runs is they may have just been the sweet spot during the ultimate transition to something else. There is a lot of time tho.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 Here's the last 4 18z GFS runs. You can see how the confluence changes based on the position of the northern stream s/w's and how far they dig. The track of the storm is very sensitive to that confluence. I don't really trust that the 18z GFS has those positions perfectly right at 4.5-5 days out. I think anything between a OH Valley/Apps track to a suppressed slider is still within the realm of possibilities. What probably can be ruled out at this stage is a big cutter towards Chicago/Cleveland/Detroit and something sliding off the coast of Wilmington, NC. gfs_z500_mslp_us_31.png gfs_z500_mslp_us_27.png gfs_z500_mslp_us_23.png gfs_z500_mslp_us_19.png I'm with ya' 100% and believe there will be some (and hopefully not all) of us sweating a northwest trend before start time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Both suppressed and west are still a threat. Obviously given current trends suppressed is right now the fear but if this started to amplify more it could end up trending right back. That's the problem with the nao and AO being so hostile. Since we can't rely on a high locked in we can't have an amped up storm or unless it's timed perfect it cuts. But to get it to stay under us we rely on the trough being progressive. But a progressive storm in flat flow could easily slide south of us. We are relying on getting perfect timing or luck. Weeks ago when I said this epo Pna look was good the guidance mostly showed a neutral to slightly pos nao. There is a huge difference between that and a +3. I wasn't expecting the nao to be this hostile again. The great PAC pattern at least gives us a shot but the crappy atl makes it a long shot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's definitely not impossible and I would be less surprised to see it come back north or run over us. Further west than that I dunno. Not sure that was ever the best answer with this one to begin with. We do relatively frequently see confluence end up not as strong as shown from range. With that northern wave digging it seems unlikely it would come too far north/west unless there's a full early phase which I wouldnt expect for now. Problem with midday runs is they may have just been the sweet spot during the ultimate transition to something else. There is a lot of time tho.. I sort of feel the western edge of the "realm of possible tracks" is probably something on a Nashville-Pittsburgh line and then probably fairly due east afterwards. Eastern edge is probably something that slides due east off the coast near Hatteras. That's probably about 500mi difference? Which is pretty typical for a 5 day lead. Just look at how much the low position jumped between yesterday and today's 18z GFS runs. Over Dallas to SE of New Orleans. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 It's definitely not impossible and I would be less surprised to see it come back north or run over us. Further west than that I dunno. Not sure that was ever the best answer with this one to begin with. We do relatively frequently see confluence end up not as strong as shown from range. With that northern wave digging it seems unlikely it would come too far north/west unless there's a full early phase which I wouldnt expect for now. Problem with midday runs is they may have just been the sweet spot during the ultimate transition to something else. There is a lot of time tho.. We're getting into that range where the important things early on in runs can only tick a little each run. I remember watching heights tick just a little higher each run when we tracked the disaster across the midwest. I like toggling h5 vort panels from around 72 hours+ against the previous run. I've seen confluence relax at d3-4+ leads much more often than get stronger this year. Part of me wants to believe the 18z gfs was the limit. The other part of me thinks this is a NADS situation. 18z gefs really only had 4-5 east tracks that are worrisome. We'll see how things trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Lol I used to have that mindset years ago when I was a hill folk. Just a place to drive through to get to the beach. Nice being an hour from Rehoboth with zero traffic issues now though. Can be to BWI in an hour or less. Plus I am far enough north I get decent snow. Plus its quiet. I like the flat farmscapes of the eastern shore and Delaware. I find it very picturesque. Looks like good thunderstorm watching country too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 After one bad GFS run? Seriously! It's one run....and the 18z at that! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Seriously! It's one run....and the 18z at that! I agree it's 1 run but the fact that it's 18z is irrelevant. The runs are what they given the conditions at the time. This run factored in stronger confluence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenfanalways Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 LOL, If this turns out true hopefully JB2's followers will finally realize he is not "the best met in the country" as they think he is. He screams about how he never hypes a storm several days in advance because he never trusts the models. Then today he just hyped this thing saying that snow lovers will be thrilled with what information he has for them. Figure at least if we have to suffer through this horrible winter we can enjoy the show of him spinning and claiming he never hyped this storm as he always does. Looks like more and more of his followers are starting to catch on that he's like a carnival barker "come see the great big it, it's right inside this tent, pay me so I can tell you about the it" LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 I like the flat farmscapes of the eastern shore and Delaware. I find it very picturesque. Looks like good thunderstorm watching country too. Yeah its a different kind of beauty I suppose. Lots of wide open farmland. Plus after living here a while its fairly easy to distinguish subtleties in the landscape between the super flat lower shore and the upper shore where it slopes and rolls gently. Lots of nice quaint towns. Everyone seems to love St Michaels but Easton is a better place to hang IMO, with some great places to eat as well, and I really like Chestertown a lot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 LOL, If this turns out true hopefully JB2's followers will finally realize he is not "the best met in the country" as they think he is. He screams about how he never hypes a storm several days in advance because he never trusts the models. Then today he just hyped this thing saying that snow lovers will be thrilled with what information he has for them. Figure at least if we have to suffer through this horrible winter we can enjoy the show of him spinning and claiming he never hyped this storm as he always does. Looks like more and more of his followers are starting to catch on that he's like a carnival barker "come see the great big it, it's right inside this tent, pay me so I can tell you about the it" LOL Lots of people were thrilled earlier today, including me. Why are you being a hater? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravenfanalways Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 LOL, If this turns out true hopefully JB2's followers will finally realize he is not "the best met in the country" as they think he is. He screams about how he never hypes a storm several days in advance because he never trusts the models. Then today he just hyped this thing saying that snow lovers will be thrilled with what information he has for them. Figure at least if we have to suffer through this horrible winter we can enjoy the show of him spinning and claiming he never hyped this storm as he always does. Looks like more and more of his followers are starting to catch on that he's like a carnival barker "come see the great big it, it's right inside this tent, pay me so I can tell you about the it" LOL Lots of people were thrilled earlier today, including me. Why are you being a hater? Still chance it works out, but just think it's funny that he tells everyone how he never trusts models more than 48 hours in advance, but then hypes storms just like everyone else or even more . He reminds me of a politician. I've seen a few call him out on it before, but then of course his followers, who some admit they can't find their town on a map follow him blindly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Tomorrow they will all be out to sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Tomorrow they will all be out to sea. Guess you are not too optimistic. You really think that it will be OTS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.