84 Hour NAM Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z rule..... always suppressed..... old data......something, something Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Gotta remember-present all scenarios/cover all bases. Nothing to worry about. Solid high pressure would cause the drawings to move things south. Drawings? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks too weak, outlier, better solutions at 00z. If you don't mind, based on what? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It would be good comedy. I don't even like late season snow much so it's tempting... mid-February is late season? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 One of my concerns that I posted earlier that Low going NW of us wasn't really the threat, it was missing SE that was the issue. The 18Z GFS 500MB actually has a sharper trough with the associated deeper LP and higher heights along the coast, but the low and associated precip is swept further east because the northern stream pushes/digs further south pushing the cold and front further SE. The GL low (which is closer to phasing in on the 18Z GFS) actually is close enough to kill our CCB so the precip cant make its way back into the cold sector like a normal coastal. This is a "trough Low" - not a scientific term (I don't think) it's track is more determined by what's going on with the surface front/cold air push vs directly at 500mb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 There's gonna be a ton of rationalizing how suppressed is better for us at this point.... I sure hope it hits us. I don't know if I can care anymore if it doesn't Only rationalization I can think is....it's 120 hours, 10 Euro Runs, 40 GFS out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 18z rule..... always suppressed..... old data......something, somethingThe off runs do seem off sometimes but it's also overstated. The southern wave has been slowly running out ahead of the northern stuff. This is actually fairly logical as far as the progression has gone. But we are far enough out it could be total crap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 mid-February is late season?Pretty much. Feb 20 might be a better mark but close enough. Anything after PD is late season to me though Ji did point out that PD is later than this many years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I know many scoff at the NAM, but it has done well at times, and was pretty good at sniffing out the SB Storm disaster at 3 days out. So, for a note of positivity, it has pretty good differences at 84 with the gfs. Pretty clear that suppressed and dry wouldn't be an issue with the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Pretty much. Feb 20 might be a better mark but close enough. Anything after PD is late season to me though Ji did point out that PD is later than this many years. I guess that's when the sun angle becomes an issue but otherwise we're generally very much in the game until March 10th or so. I consider mid-March and later late season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 As they always say in our business. Next! After one bad GFS run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The latest euro says 6-10. That's all that matters right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 After one bad GFS run?of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The latest euro says 6-10. That's all that matters right? Euro = king Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It was a good very quick storm..piled up really quick even on main arteries. I think I got around 6" in Old Town. Started around midnight and was only like a 5-6 hour event....I got caught in it, and a lot of people got stuck... i think it started earlier than that if i'm thinking of the same storm. i had a basketball game that night and by the time it was over there was several inches on the ground. could be a different storm i'm thinking of though. it was powder and stuck to the roads really well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I guess that's when the sun angle becomes an issue but otherwise we're generally very much in the game until March 10th or so. I consider mid-March and later late season.This feels a bit like I'm talking to Yoda but I don't care to have a academic discussion about climo. March is not a good snow month for DC of late with some obvious exceptions. Further west maybe. If we keep the cold around we will have chances going forward for a while yet.. But mid March and beyond is spring. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Typical storm for us. Looks bad...looks better...looks great...looks bad... started bad, trended closer...and kept trending...til it's past us. i think some people have this assumption that a trend will just stop when it's good. in any case, i think it's better to be on the north side than the south side this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This feels a bit like I'm talking to Yoda but I don't care to have a academic discussion about climo. March is not a good snow month for DC of late with some obvious exceptions. Further west maybe. If we keep the cold around we will have chances going forward for a while yet.. But mid March and beyond is spring. Yeah and especially this year I feel like tossing in the towel a little early. If we don't have a good storm by Feb 20 I don't even want one. I'm not trying to get 8 inches of snow where it's melting from the bottom up as it falls. I want some good clean powder that sticks around for 7-10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This feels a bit like I'm talking to Yoda but I don't care to have a academic discussion about climo. March is not a good snow month for DC of late with some obvious exceptions. Further west maybe. If we keep the cold around we will have chances going forward for a while yet.. But mid March and beyond is spring. for the most part, we are done with snow chances by early march. i stop following closely and anything we get is usually luck. it's like if it's going to snow in late november or early december, which is not common. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I bet 00Z will show the same look and then panic will really set in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Missing SE became a possibility as we trended away from what we thought was a likely west track. It's a risk and may happen but not because the 18z gfs @ 120 hours told me it was. Just like if the 0z tells me I'm going to get 4-8" I'm not going to jump for joy and think we're in the clear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This feels a bit like I'm talking to Yoda but I don't care to have a academic discussion about climo. March is not a good snow month for DC of late with some obvious exceptions. Further west maybe. If we keep the cold around we will have chances going forward for a while yet.. But mid March and beyond is spring. Other than a slight semantic difference, I think we're on the same page. I'm not a fan of March snow unless it's either unusually cold or a big one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I am having a drink or 2 and taking it in stride. One run. There is still range of possible outcomes. This is fun, because if nothing else its different. For the first time in a while I am more worried about a miss east than a soaking 33 degree rainstorm. And honestly I would rather see that(a scrape or miss), although I doubt its going to happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GEFS mean supports the OP, though looks like a number of members inside the OP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah and especially this year I feel like tossing in the towel a little early. If we don't have a good storm by Feb 20 I don't even want one. I'm not trying to get 8 inches of snow where it's melting from the bottom up as it falls. I want some good clean powder that sticks around for 7-10 days.To be fair I don't think I like snow quite as much as many people here. It's fun to forecast and watch fall and for a day or so after but otherwise I'm fairly ambivalent. I'm usually among the first looking for winter to end around here. It is a fluid idea that is not defined.. But most people freely admit Dec isn't usually a good snow month yet some of the same folks act like Mar is when it's not any better usually and has a lower avg. I guess it's because the odds of a big storm are probably at least slightly better late season than early season. But again we certainly don't appear to be staring down a hard stop for snow chances anytime soon. Maybe March is trying to make a comeback. It used to be better than it has been in recent decades. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 To be fair I don't think I like snow quite as much as many people here. It's fun to forecast and watch fall and for a day or so after but otherwise I'm fairly ambivalent. I'm usually among the first looking for winter to end around here. It is a fluid idea that is not defined.. But most people freely admit Dec isn't usually a good snow month yet some of the same folks act like Mar is when it's not any better usually and has a lower avg. I guess it's because the odds of a big storm are probably at least slightly better late season than early season. But again we certainly don't appear to be staring down a hard stop for snow chances anytime soon. Maybe March is trying to make a comeback. It used to be better than it has been in recent decades. Yeah March has been pretty decent very recently. Maybe it is making a comeback as a legit winter month, at least the first couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 To be fair I don't think I like snow quite as much as many people here. It's fun to forecast and watch fall and for a day or so after but otherwise I'm fairly ambivalent. I'm usually among the first looking for winter to end around here. It is a fluid idea that is not defined.. But most people freely admit Dec isn't usually a good snow month yet some of the same folks act like Mar is when it's not any better usually and has a lower avg. I guess it's because the odds of a big storm are probably at least slightly better late season than early season. But again we certainly don't appear to be staring down a hard stop for snow chances anytime soon. Maybe March is trying to make a comeback. It used to be better than it has been in recent decades. I think you just want severe to start sooner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Other than a slight semantic difference, I think we're on the same page. I'm not a fan of March snow unless it's either unusually cold or a big one.Fair enough. St Patrick's day last year was an eye opener. I didn't even truly think it could snow like that so late anymore. We do have some time to go.. I guess I'd break into early/peak/late and we are past peak at this pt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 QPF for the last four runs of the GFS at MRB: 00Z- 0.70" 06Z- 0.65" 12Z- 0.35" 18Z- < 0.10" This is not a good trend, IMO. I too tend to think that the 18z runs are sometimes outliers in their own right but that's hardly scientific. My guess is that the 0z runs tonight will tell the story for this storm for us. We won't have to sweat it out all weekend (unless we see marked improvement tonight). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This is not a good trend, IMO. I too tend to think that the 18z runs are sometimes outliers in their own right but that's hardly scientific. My guess is that the 0z runs tonight will tell the story for this storm for us. We won't have to sweat it out all weekend (unless we see marked improvement tonight). Would a 2-3" storm with cold temps be that bad? I think we all got our expectations up, but a nice couple inches of powder is nicer than a few inches of slop followed by a driving rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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