Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I should have added one more thing to my previous post. I'm pretty skeptical of the all snow solutions from today. This really isn't a good all snow setup nor one that we would get widespread 6 or more inches from it. If it happens it would go down as a pretty big fluke. I would like to think that I can top my biggest event of the year and get 4" but I'm not sure how easy that's going to be. I wish these model runs were happening inside of 48 hours. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I should have added one more thing to my previous post. I'm pretty skeptical of the all snow solutions from today. This really isn't a good all snow setup nor one that we would get widespread 6 or more inches from it. If it happens it would go down as a pretty big fluke. I would like to think that I can top my biggest event of the year and get 4" but I'm not sure how easy that's going to be. I wish these model runs were happening inside of 48 hours. lol We're gonna mix, unquestionably. That's how we do around here. People should accept that as a default position around here. Even when we have a high in the favored position sometimes we mix. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I should have added one more thing to my previous post. I'm pretty skeptical of the all snow solutions from today. This really isn't a good all snow setup nor one that we would get widespread 6 or more inches from it. If it happens it would go down as a pretty big fluke. I would like to think that I can top my biggest event of the year and get 4" but I'm not sure how easy that's going to be. I wish these model runs were happening inside of 48 hours. lol We've been marching toward our yearly average by gathering up .2 and .8 inch cartoppers, we're playing with house money at this point. 4 inches would feel like a foot. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I like that the I95 crowd is not in the bullseye at this point. Do we get a decent snow? Sure, but we aren't the bullseye so there is room for movement and still see our best event of the year. That's about all we can ask right now imho. I-95 pretty much is in the bullseye on the GFS. Also points east around the bay. And stop being so selfish Those fine folks in southern MD and the lower shore want some snow too. You dont need to be in the bullseye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We're gonna mix, unquestionably. That's how we do around here. People should accept that as a default position around here. Even when we have a high in the favored position sometimes we mix. Truth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 I-95 pretty much is in the bullseye on the GFS. Also points east around the bay. And stop being so selfish Those fine folks in southern MD and the lower shore want some snow too. You dont need to be in the bullseye One model may place us there, but there's no consensus among the models on a bullseye. And there are living people in S MD and the Eastern Shore? I thought they were holograms as the I95 people drive through those locations to get where they are going! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SOMDweather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 One model may place us there, but there's no consensus among the models on a bullseye. And there are living people in S MD and the Eastern Shore? I thought they were holograms as the I95 people drive through those locations to get where they are going! Yes Mitch, there are a few of us down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 -14 is close enough to all time record low we can't sleep on it. -13 is all time record but that's back when cowboys and indians were still at it. Really amateurish cartoons to throw up anything like -14 for DCA. IAD, on a once in 20 year air mass, clear, calm, full snowcover could radiate to that level while DCA would be 9, Andrews and Annapolis 0. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 One model may place us there, but there's no consensus among the models on a bullseye. And there are living people in S MD and the Eastern Shore? I thought they were holograms as the I95 people drive through those locations to get where they are going! Lol I used to have that mindset years ago when I was a hill folk. Just a place to drive through to get to the beach. Nice being an hour from Rehoboth with zero traffic issues now though. Can be to BWI in an hour or less. Plus I am far enough north I get decent snow. Plus its quiet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 This is latest GFS mos for Monday morning at 7am. This is colder than after the snowstorm 12zmon.PNG Pretty legit for this late. Obv we had some legit later last yr but we may stave off big UHI if winds stay up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I should have added one more thing to my previous post. I'm pretty skeptical of the all snow solutions from today. This really isn't a good all snow setup nor one that we would get widespread 6 or more inches from it. If it happens it would go down as a pretty big fluke. I would like to think that I can top my biggest event of the year and get 4" but I'm not sure how easy that's going to be. I wish these model runs were happening inside of 48 hours. lol Yeah, as much as I wish it could happen, I don't see an all-snow event here in the end. That said, I can see us getting a decent snow followed by sleet and ice (or snow/sleet/ice mix), then getting glaciered-over right afterward. That would still be quite interesting to follow and would be pretty high impact. What I don't want to see is snow followed by a washout...I'm hoping those solutions are becoming less likely. Given what we've seen in the last day, and the discussions on what the ensembles have been showing, that gives me more hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If we can get a moderate snow from this, I'm of the opinion that Spring can begin next weekend. yea i have the same mindset. i'm craving one sizable areawide snowstorm and then i'd be fine with milder weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 -13 is all time record but that's back when cowboys and indians were still at it. Really amateurish cartoons to throw up anything like -14 for DCA. IAD, on a once in 20 year air mass, clear, calm, full snowcover could radiate to that level while DCA would be 9, Andrews and Annapolis 0.Think it's -15 in 1899 but I'm not at home and don't have data on me at the moment. DCA has only gotten to like -5 and not below zero since 1994... So it is pretty stupid a model shows that. Though I guess there is some grand issue with snow cover and the models at range not to mention their apparent general cold bias at range. Apparently it's coming up soon as a euro upgrade. And a reason MOS is still important.. Tho it gets screwed by the crazy numbers a bit of course. Too many people don't know climo and get all excited sharing that stuff these days as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 EPS anyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 EPS anyone? Solid. Vast majority of the tracks go se of us. Mean track is great. Mean snowfall is 3-6" through the area. Very few west tracks. However, there's a small cluster of whiffs or scrapes to the south and east. I suppose that can be viewed as an insurance policy of sorts but it's a weird storm doing weird things. There is more support for a consolidated single storm but also enough looking like the op to take notice. Some of the more strung out solutions are big hits. Overall, another improvement as time goes forward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 When was the last time we saw something like this? CMC ensembles are less convinced that it's going to be all snow. The difference is that the GEFS members are mostly along or to the east of the op / control run, while there are still several western tracks in the CMC ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leaking Gut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 EPS looks good, at least to my boob eyes. Seems most of the tracks are south with only a couple to the west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Damn, 18z NAM gets that New England bomb down to 955mb. Can't help but think that helps us downstream a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The threat of the Low moving NW of our area are being greatly diminishing due to the fact that the surface front pushes fairly far south. This touches off the Low Pressure development in a great spot for us along the Gulf Coast. As the northern stream s/w sweeps in along with its push of deep cold air this acts to sweep every east fairly quickly. I would be more worried about suppression but that's where our sub-tropical ridge/high actually helps us from letting the low swing to far south and east. The only thing to worry about IMO is the effect the GL low will have on the precip shield (not temps) the farther west you go. The flow around the GL low tend to disrupt the CCB (cold conveyer belt) which can do a number on the western part of the precip shield in the cold sector and keep accums down. Nice post. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Solid. Vast majority of the tracks go se of us. Mean track is great. Mean snowfall is 3-6" through the area. Very few west tracks. However, there's a small cluster of whiffs or scrapes to the south and east. I suppose that can be viewed as an insurance policy of sorts but it's a weird storm doing weird things. There is more support for a consolidated single storm but also enough looking like the op to take notice. Some of the more strung out solutions are big hits. Overall, another improvement as time goes forward. Great news, thank you Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It got down to -14 here back in January 1994. Many nights that year below zero. I know dulles and bwi were also below zero but can't remember exact #s. BWI was -7 and i think IAD was -10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Great news, thank you Bob. There's about 10 solutions out of 51 that would be viewed as completely unacceptable. All the others would make tracking this worth it. It's kinda weird that missing to the se seems to be a bigger threat to screwing things up than anything else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 There's about 10 solutions out of 51 that would be viewed as completely unacceptable. All the others would make tracking this worth it. It's kinda weird that missing to the se seems to be a bigger threat to screwing things up than anything else. I will chase in OCMD... need to paint the condo anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Think it's -15 in 1899 but I'm not at home and don't have data on me at the moment. Yeah it was 2/11/1899. I've spent far too much time reading about that month (just look at my avatar lol) BWI was -7 and i think IAD was -10. BWI was -5 in 1994. The all time record low for BWI has been -7 on a couple occasions (most recently in 1984). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If this is still a threat on Saturday... is the server going to be able to hold the load? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 check out tweet from HM!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Anthony Masiello @antmasiello · 2h2 hours ago Confluence between two polar waves is just as effective for coastal low track as a classic 50/50, -NAO. See Feb 2-4, 1995 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 check out tweet from HM!! http://www.raymondcmartinjr.com/weather/1995/04-Feb-95.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 i except a suite of terrible runs soon. When is that going to happen? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah it was 2/11/1899. I've spent far too much time reading about that month (just look at my avatar lol) BWI was -5 in 1994. The all time record low for BWI has been -7 on a couple occasions (most recently in 1984). Thanks for the correction i thought 94 also tied the all time record low. If i am not mistaken it has happened 5 times over the years at BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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