MN Transplant Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 How cold is it with the high over us and fresh snowpack Friday morning the 20th? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Missing south with a big +ao/nao and zero hp to the north is a meteorological impossibility.We can hope. Well not too much plenty of time to go north tho that seems sort of unlikely at this pt. Weaken the waves a bit and going south would t be too hard. Mentioned last night but I do think that's something we've seen a fair amount of this winter.. Flatter/faster/weaker in close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We survived another 12z suite. GEFS looked great. Models that should not be looked at looked good. No thread until Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Weather.com already calling for 8 inches of snow in the DC Metro.. atypical for them to do that this early. Well, that seems a bit extreme and bold to go with any accumulations at this point. Let alone significant amounts. In the same vein, however, LWX is going categorical on the probabilities for precipitation (80%, snow) already for Tuesday and Tuesday night, I noticed. But that's just the POP, and though it seems a bit early to throw high ones out there, it is looking pretty likely that precip will be falling right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 How cold is it with the high over us and fresh snowpack Friday morning the 20th? Euro shows a -25C reading Friday morning. I dont think ive ever seen that before Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yup, do they even tweak it with their own mets as it gets closer?.I'm not sure. I'd imagine it's heavily automated though I believe they have a proprietary way of doing so that's not just one model. Maybe they step in more for populated areas in shorter range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Low single digit lows all the way down into South Carolina Thursday. Correct me if I am wrong, but hasn't the pattern been less cold/further north as we close in? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 LOL. Euro ends up with about 17" at SBY per text. do you have westminster? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GEFS had some of those on the 12z run and they were big hits. yea that can work, and today's runs are all encouraging, but I am still aware of the flaws in this setup and so I am waiting and watching. I sure wish we were 12 hours out getting these runs and not 120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro is 14 below for DCA on Friday? C'mon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 do you have westminster? .5 qpf. Very cold surface and 850's. Would probably be a solid 6-8. 2m temps in the low 20's during the heaviest snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro is 14 below for DCA on Friday? C'mon. it's been well established going back to last year that the euro has issues with sfc temps in areas of snowcover -- looks like the new GFS has similar radiation issues Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Most will scroll right past my post and that would be par for the course but I can't help but worry about that GL low and the fast flow. It hasn't worked out well for us all year even with some model consensus. Just think we should temper our enthusiasm until Wednesday morning. Ha! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro is 14 below for DCA on Friday? C'mon. Just flip the sign and you're good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 .5 qpf. Very cold surface and 850's. Would probably be a solid 6-8. 2m temps in the low 20's during the heaviest snow. thanks, friend! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 -14 is close enough to all time record low we can't sleep on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Most will scroll right past my post and that would be par for the course but I can't help but worry about that GL low and the fast flow. It hasn't worked out well for us all year even with some model consensus. Just think we should temper our enthusiasm until Wednesday morning. Ha! I don't think anyone is ignoring these issues, just holding out hope we get lucky this time. I know I am well aware of this. I am equally nervous about an over amped system going NW of us and the threat that the progressive flow pushes this whole thing east of me. Its a thread the needle thing because the atlantic wants to just stay stuck in a craptastic pattern all winter. If the NAO would ever go negative this pattern would be epic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 -14 is close enough to all time record low we can't sleep on it. DCA would be lucky to ever actually record a 14 above reading again.... cue Tenman Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I don't think anyone is ignoring these issues, just holding out hope we get lucky this time. I know I am well aware of this. I am equally nervous about an over amped system going NW of us and the threat that the progressive flow pushes this whole thing east of me. Its a thread the needle thing because the atlantic wants to just stay stuck in a craptastic pattern all winter. If the NAO would ever go negative this pattern would be epic. It seems like almost every single time the models showed a big storm it was showing some semblance of blocking too, and I imagine if the NAO had cooperated this winter then we might be talking 60"+ totals for the region. Something ridiculous. Do you know of any other winters in which we were so close to having an epic pattern minus a horrible NAO? Maybe 1994? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 DCA would be lucky to ever actually record a 14 above reading again.... cue TenmanHit 6 last year! Might get close this go.. That would be something for 2nd half of Feb these days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It would be funny to miss something to the south at this pt in the season. That's exactly what I'm thinking. We'll see the models trend for a bigger Deep South hit and the the storm redevelops up near New England. Really hope that is not the case. So over the weekend the models show a really big hit for everyone. I know this season has been depressing watching the models only to take away the threat. But as been mentioned, the pattern is very hostile for winter storms down here. Anyway, just wait and watch for now. But the good sign is that we may finally have a big storm that may finally bring big snows for many. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Most will scroll right past my post and that would be par for the course but I can't help but worry about that GL low and the fast flow. It hasn't worked out well for us all year even with some model consensus. Just think we should temper our enthusiasm until Wednesday morning. Ha! It's not really a great lakes low. At least in the traditional sense. There simply is no high pressure across southern canada in general. The track in this case is upper air driven. Here's hr96 of the gfs. Euro is basically the same or even better with confluence in the east. As the vort digs down in the west, the confluence and down hill look of the isobars in the east force the track east before things amplify and bring it up to us. It's a pretty lucky setup. A track overhead or just west is still very much on the table but not before we probably get snowed on anyway. The thing that gives me comfort is now that the favorable h5 look is inside of 96hrs. This isn't like the disaster we had earlier with the north trend late in the game. That storm was tracking from the pac nw through the MW. This one is forming down in TX. Huge difference. The 12z gfs yesterday was the only run that amped things up way early. The run was an outlier (thankfully). Couple of things to help put us at ease with thinking this storm can easily turn a cold or warm rainer: 1. The bombing clipper is going to happen. It's a lock. The big bowling ball is going to setup a period of strong confluence as the vort starts digging inside of 4 days. 2. The airmass on Sunday and Monday is really really cold. 850 line is all the way down to GA on Monday and we're in the -10's 3. The storm develops in TX and tracks along the deep south. With no block, this is imperative. Even if it tracks overhead or west, we still won't have a tough time getting a decent period of snow. The bad thing is it's a fast mover with a relatively small precip shield and uncertain track. We'll just have to sweat it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The threat of the Low moving NW of our area are being greatly diminishing due to the fact that the surface front pushes fairly far south. This touches off the Low Pressure development in a great spot for us along the Gulf Coast. As the northern stream s/w sweeps in along with its push of deep cold air this acts to sweep every east fairly quickly. I would be more worried about suppression but that's where our sub-tropical ridge/high actually helps us from letting the low swing to far south and east. The only thing to worry about IMO is the effect the GL low will have on the precip shield (not temps) the farther west you go. The flow around the GL low tend to disrupt the CCB (cold conveyer belt) which can do a number on the western part of the precip shield in the cold sector and keep accums down. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It seems like almost every single time the models showed a big storm it was showing some semblance of blocking too, and I imagine if the NAO had cooperated this winter then we might be talking 60"+ totals for the region. Something ridiculous. Do you know of any other winters in which we were so close to having an epic pattern minus a horrible NAO? Maybe 1994? It's fairly rare to get the EPO/PNA/NAO combo that we have had this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Here's the latest CWG article than Jason adn I wrote on the Tuesday/Wednesday threat. It's suitably wishy-washy since we're still 120 hours away from the event. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/12/tuesday-into-wednesday-next-week-shows-some-potential-for-winter-storminess/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 A general 6-10 storm for the area is exactly whats needed at this point. I would obviously prefer a more amped solution out here. But with what the Euro is depicting at least no one in our subforum gets screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If we can get a moderate snow from this, I'm of the opinion that Spring can begin next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 I like that the I95 crowd is not in the bullseye at this point. Do we get a decent snow? Sure, but we aren't the bullseye so there is room for movement and still see our best event of the year. That's about all we can ask right now imho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro is 14 below for DCA on Friday? C'mon. This is latest GFS mos for Monday morning at 7am. This is colder than after the snowstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If DCA gets another 6-12" the remainder of the winter then I will have pretty much nailed my winter guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.