CAPE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 it doesn't start for 120 hours...I hope nobody is taking these runs or this event seriously.... People get excited over modeled snow. My ratio of digital/real is like 9:1. So yeah, nice trends over the past day or so, but that is about all one can say at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leaking Gut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Are there ensembles after every GFS run? or only 00Z and 12Z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 UKIE at 120 looks decent... 1004mb MSLP right around OBX 12zUKIESLPFeb1215.gif Im going to pretend like I dont see that GL low Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Are there ensembles after every GFS run? or only 00Z and 12Z? Every run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Im going to pretend like I dont see that GL low You mean the hurricane? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Are there ensembles after every GFS run? or only 00Z and 12Z? Every but you should stop looking at models and call 911 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 it doesn't start for 120 hours...I hope nobody is taking these runs or this event seriously.... Of course, but no reason not be interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Im going to pretend like I dont see that GL lowGeneral low pressure around the lakes in on all models. 1011 isn't very worrisome. I'm fully expecting a mixed event either way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 General low pressure around the lakes in on all models. 1011 isn't very worrisome. I'm fully expecting a mixed event either way. As am I. Frankly can't remember the last good storm we had that didn't mix at all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 General low pressure around the lakes in on all models. 1011 isn't very worrisome. I'm fully expecting a mixed event either way. its an embedded low, part of polar vortex right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GGEM is a crush job Leesburg and west. 10 Inch storm. GFS is 6 inches. The track on both really doesnt get any better. Wish this was the 12Z Tuesday run though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leaking Gut Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Every run Thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Per GFS, qpf values are .6" or less for anyone west of 95 Wes jackpots though, same with eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 CMC looks a little like 12/26/2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 12z GEFS mean snow map is a thing of beauty for almost everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 CMC looks a little like 12/26/2010. That's a dangerous post to be making around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Fairly progressive storm. It will probably end up similar to January 22 last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That's a dangerous post to be making around here. Oh I know.... but when I saw that strip of snow through VA and then redevelopment off the coast.. my stomach dropped.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The 12z GEFS mean snow map is a thing of beauty for almost everyone! For our area, I only saw 1 solution that gave little if any snow. All the rest were darn good. Some are crushings. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Reading posts like this must be like what "50 Shades.." is like for women By far the best GEFS run I've seen this year as far as track/consensus goes. Supportive of the op overall with the low passing south and east. There's a couple delayed solutions that are big hits. Only saw 2 west tracks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I have liked this storm, and so stated, ever since saw that it's origins were in area of TX/LA gulf region. Good things for DC come from there. But, let us remember that no matter how cold it is around here we can still miss the snow. A low in the lakes plus a low to our west would be able to overcome the preexisting very cold temps. 1994 was low 20's at onset and not one flake of snow, all sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 In case anyone cares what the Navy thinks. There's 2-3" on the ground before this 6 hour panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 at this point..more worried about supression(UKMET) than too north? The problem is, regardless of how good the runs today are, this will require some luck because both a NW track and suppression are a threat due to the ridiculously positive AO/NAO. Highs are going to be transient and kick out of the way with no resistance. So we are relying on the progressive northern branch to force this east. If it doesn't this could still cut. If it does it could also push the whole thing east of us. On the positive side the cold air in front at least gives us a shot, its just not the high probability scenario I would like if we could ever get a less hostile NAO/AO combo. ETA: As wavelengths shorten if the EPO/PNA were to remain as they are now, and the AO/NAO, it would open the door to some kind of crazy full latitude trough/storm like 1993. Thats actually how you get that type of setup, thats why 93 keeps showing up in analogs. Less likely in a -NAO but of course there is no guarantee such a storm wouldnt cut on us or be an apps runner. EETA: before the bombardment starts I am NOT predicting another superstorm, just saying the possibility of a deep trough and associated bombing storm is there in such a pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 EEETA: Psuhoffman is predicting another superstorm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro is quicker with the vort. Look similar to GFS through 90. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro is again throwing some very light preliminary snow close to the region on Monday afternoon/evening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 it's nice seeing trends but seems like these are significant trends...which may not end this run. we want things to start locking in soon or else we could end up with a fish storm. i still want the euro to trend good this run, though lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 I just hope this isn't like the one a few weeks ago that had the light snow over us then shifted. Gimme a thump and I'm happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 EEETA: Psuhoffman is predicting another superstorm. ok sure, why not Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 7pm start for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.