PDIII Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 V-day 2007 repeat? Haven't looked too heavily into the evolution of that storm, but the thermals are kind of similar. I got like 4-5" of sleet in that one. Are you for real? .. There is no way you got that much sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 6z gfs cold but awful run. Dry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I normally don't post these, esp at this lead time as they are fairly useless, so forgive me lol. But that is a really wonky looking snowfall map. Can only assume a large portion of that SE of I-95 would be sleet. Unless the run had some sort of a trailing wave after 850s cooled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 6z gfs cold but awful run. Dry It is like an inch of qpf for all of central MD... I guess it is a little drier for the initial thump... But it ain't dry. Anyway... I just compared the last five runs of the gfs... In the 120 hour time frame (what I use as a bench mark for when the globals start to zero in on a solution) The low pressure track has gone from st Louis to corpus cristi. Yesterday was by far the most favorable trend we have seen all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I normally don't post these, esp at this lead time as they are fairly useless, so forgive me lol. But that is a really wonky looking snowfall map. Can only assume a large portion of that SE of I-95 would be sleet. Unless the run had some sort of a trailing wave after 850s cooled. euro.jpg Uhh...wow...Maine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It is like an inch of qpf for all of central MD... I guess it is a little drier for the initial thump... But it ain't dry. Anyway... I just compared the last five runs of the gfs... In the 120 hour time frame (what I use as a bench mark for when the globals start to zero in on a solution) The low pressure track has gone from st Louis to corpus cristi. Yesterday was by far the most favorable trend we have seen all year. Yeah definite improvement in the track over the last day in the guidance. Still, the overall set up is not great, so even a "good" storm track likely will produce a mix or even plain rain at some point for the coastal plain. I would prefer a somewhat weaker, flatter solution over something amped up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Uhh...wow...Maine lol yeah...on top of whats already on the ground they would be pushing 8 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah definite improvement in the track over the last day in the guidance. Still, the overall set up is not great, so even a "good" storm track likely will produce a mix or even plain rain at some point for the coastal plain. I would prefer a somewhat weaker, flatter solution over something amped up. perhaps but comparing just the op panels for 0z and 6z I like 6z...it may be drier but colder...notice how 2m temps hr 135 on 6z wedge down further...0z 2m temps creeping up to S-central VA....would rather all frozen event and I think w of I95 might have a shot at that with 6z...but we are 5 days out and south trend is nice however don't want it too far. Never easy but always fun to track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah definite improvement in the track over the last day in the guidance. Still, the overall set up is not great, so even a "good" storm track likely will produce a mix or even plain rain at some point for the coastal plain. I would prefer a somewhat weaker, flatter solution over something amped up cape i will be happy with half of those totals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 00z GFS was pretty sweet for Westminster 1.19" total QPF ~8" snow .5 sleet .1 fzra 06z not quite as nice .8"qpf, only ~5" snow, .3 fzra Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If the track would be just a little more to the se that would be great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 If we just had a little blocking to slow down Next weeks storm it would really be something on the 6Z GFS. As modeled its about .65 out here all frozen. Around 5 inches of snow that quickly turns to concrete. It's just moving to fast to be a big storm. But I would take it as modeled in a heartbeat. If anyone cares about the rest of the cobb numbers: DCA 2.3 IAD 3.2 BWI 3.2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 cape i will be happy with half of those totals I just want a low end warning criteria event that doesn't flip to rain and turn to slop. So I am with ya. Lots of moving parts this far out but never good to see low pressure to the north and high pressure sliding off the coast to our east. Places NW would have the best shot at a mainly snow event given the set up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I just want a low end warning criteria event that doesn't flip to rain and turn to slop. So I am with ya. Lots of moving parts this far out but never good to see low pressure to the north and high pressure sliding off the coast to our east. Places NW would have the best shot at a mainly snow event given the set up. I think it's pretty clear this is going to be a tainted event as there won't be a miracle block forming, or a High pressure showing up to our north. The low to the north and High out at sea aren't likely to change. So we need to accept we are dealing with a needle thread scenario here. The question really is how long can the cold air hold without a surface high to the north, and where does the surface low track. The next several days we'll probably see a variety of tainted event scenarios painted on the models, some with mostly snow, some with mostly sleet/frz rain, but precip type with this one is going to really drive the impact, and that may not be clear until we are inside 48 or even 24 hours. FWIW, the 6Z GFS sounding At DCA looked like snow at 138 hours, but at 144 hours the cold surface was extremely shallow, and there was a very thick layer of very warm air above. It's going to be tough to keep the surface below 32 with that very thick warm layer above. This isn't just a thin layer warm nose the GFS is showing at 144 hours. I do still see some room for improvement, but I'm also seeing the typical redflags at this lead for debacle. Expectations should be set appropriately given the medium range flaws of the models this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We just need as much qpf as humanly possible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoth Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I sincerely hope you guys get smoked down there next week. I'm pushing some of our good juju your way. Just keep the rain out of Boston. That would spell capital T trouble; all the storm drains are completely clogged with snow. As an aside, my God at the Euro snow output. That's 100"+ in 30 days if that happened. How many standard deviations that must be from the mean… All the best for a white future down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Would go with GFS/Euro for now. We can't hope on HP to save the day if the Low runs up the Apps. So we got to hope for a good LP track and hope that the Cold air holds as modeled, which has been hard to do w/o HP/wedge. Could easily see this trend north on a dime. If we have solutions like this at 0z Monday and temps Sunday/Sunday Night verify. We got a good chance and could hoist Winter Storm Watches. Way too far out to get exited. But very much able to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah definite improvement in the track over the last day in the guidance. Still, the overall set up is not great, so even a "good" storm track likely will produce a mix or even plain rain at some point for the coastal plain. I would prefer a somewhat weaker, flatter solution over something amped up. I know... at any rate, we have gotten lucky with a needle threaded in the past.... If this thing shifts another 50 miles SE... people are gonna go Ape-Sh$t around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 6z gfs is most unrealiable gfs run:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 6z gfs is most unrealiable gfs run:) I don't think we are supposed to say that. Keep those thoughts locked in your head. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We just need as much qpf as humanly possible2-3" is about that in winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 All of this for a storm that is 5 days away. This winter has taken a real toll on people. Every storm has went north of us starting around 5 day mark. Can we buck the trend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I just want a low end warning criteria event that doesn't flip to rain and turn to slop. So I am with ya. Lots of moving parts this far out but never good to see low pressure to the north and high pressure sliding off the coast to our east. Places NW would have the best shot at a mainly snow event given the set up. good ideas agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 All of this for a storm that is 5 days away. This winter has taken a real toll on people. Every storm has went north of us starting around 5 day mark. Can we buck the trend? can you buck unexpected high pressure to our south, its amazing how that "high" was never seen or projected in the winter outlooks, other features that were expected never show or are late!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z Ukie was a total whiff to the south. Almost no precip makes it here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z Ukie was a total whiff to the south. Almost no precip makes it here. Excellent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z Ukie was a total whiff to the south. Almost no precip makes it here. It's the only model to show that magical High showing up in Canada. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 0z Ukie was a total whiff to the south. Almost no precip makes it here. i wouldn't think the model runs would be that much change in any given cycle, models are based on mathematical equations and physics, there can't be that much change in incoming data, unless the data is wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's the only model to show that magical High showing up in Canada. don't forget that high ridge to our south flexing its muscle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 don't forget that high ridge to our south flexing its muscle I'm not sure that it is, hence the southerly track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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