Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wow that's really slow. Euro sw bias? wow....we flip back to snow in a big way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The evolution gets strung out with 2 low centers. We've seen this before at midrange leads. Usually ends up being more consolidated. Weird run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 JI gets like 6" after the flip back...it's an insanely wet run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The evolution gets strung out with 2 low centers. We've seen this before at midrange leads. Usually ends up being more consolidated. Weird run. exactly...was going to say exact same thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 JI gets like 6" after the flip back...it's an insanely wet run that's pretty common Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Over 2" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Any semblance of a surface CAD wedge after 850s warm? I can't see the those panels for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ACFD FIREMAN Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 JI gets like 6" after the flip back...it's an insanely wet run Looks a little over 2" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm not going to invest much time dissecting this run. It's not going down like that. No chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Over 2" QPFdeep moisture fetch. Pd3.0 haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 that's pretty common you actually may never even go to ZR...I think you probably do but you;re sort of close to all snow.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Any semblance of a surface CAD wedge after 850s warm? I can't see the those panels for now. yes...everyone west of the city stays 32 or below the whole storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm not going to invest much time dissecting this run. It's not going down like that. No chance. It's a silly run...but the models are trending really wet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Sounds like a very ninoish event with long moisture fetch kinda like pd2003 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 you actually may never even go to ZR...I think you probably do but you;re sort of close to all snow.... @156 the 850 line is fdk/okv. Even @ 150 is clarksburg/jyo. Overall the run is a mess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wxbell maps are going to show Leesburg with like 20"..it's so close out there, though there is definitely warmth in the column during part of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 @156 the 850 line is fdk/okv. Even @ 150 is clarksburg/jyo. Overall the run is a mess. yes...it's west of him, but super close..he could be at 0.2 or something...I think from 875mb down to like 975mb would be a torch though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's a silly run...but the models are trending really wet That's the big takeaway. Euro is a hot mess overall. If we were inside of 72 I would think harder about it. But the gfs/euro both drop a qpf bomb but in different ways. We're still very much in the game. I like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I wonder if this can end up bring a classic 2-3 inch qpf event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 V-day 2007 repeat? Haven't looked too heavily into the evolution of that storm, but the thermals are kind of similar. I got like 4-5" of sleet in that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think there is going to be a storm of some kind. probably safe enough to start a storm thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Euro is a severe event even though it's not all snow. Severe arctic air blast on tail. No school for Fauquier next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think there is going to be a storm of some kind. probably safe enough to start a storm thread The euro is a 36 hour event with 2"+ QPF into a massive cold complex...we need a block... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's a driving rainstorm for most between 156-162. Almost an inch of rain in 6 hours for a lot of us. Good thing is the run has a near zero chance at verifying and qpf has been getting bumped up today. What type, where, and how much should be fun to figure out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I think there is going to be a storm of some kind. probably safe enough to start a storm thread wait until Saturday...let's use this thread...the supposed event could be a sad debacle by this weekend..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's a driving rainstorm for most between 156-162. Almost an inch of rain in 6 hours for a lot of us. Good thing is the run has a near zero chance at verifying and qpf has been getting bumped up today. What type, where, and how much should be fun to figure out. Yeah...it doesn't improve until our 4 surface lows pass by Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 wait until Saturday...let's use this thread...the supposed event could be a sad debacle by this weekend..... Exactly. There's nothing additional to discuss for the time being. 72 hour rule will save us from adding to the failthread trashcan way more often than not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Exactly. There's nothing additional to discuss for the time being. 72 hour rule will save us from adding to the failthread trashcan way more often than not. yes...72 hour rule...I wish I didn't have a job and I could go to sleep every night at 2am and wake up at 12:45pm. Euro > Sleep > Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The euro is a 36 hour event with 2"+ QPF into a massive cold complex...we need a block... if we had a block and an arctic high.. we woukd be taking pd3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ezweather Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On a midnight shift. Oh man, shift this a bit east and we're in business. Still, the telleconnections are lousy for this setup, but there are exceptions for this. Given how much snow New England has gotten it may play a role in the track for this storm. If this storm were to track west of Boston, then it would be a disaster for flooding. Now we need all models to trend for the low to track a bit offshore. Can't have model runs taking away the threat down here. Basically, we really need things to trend in a way to get a big winter storm event. Anyway, sure is interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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