Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 6 days or so isn't la la land to me... under a week at least this time around Thanks Yoda. You know you are right.. 6 days is less than a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Should've said east, my bad. This one looks good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 At this range? It's still kinda la la land. Yes, but I'm so used to seeing heights ticker higher and 850's getting warmer every run that I can't help but to be a bit more encouraged than recent events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 6 days or so isn't la la land to me... under a week at least this time around technically, 5 and 1/2, but who's counting? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's la la land. Even in a good year. More that we've moved from the football being in the shed to being in Lucy's hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 6 days or so isn't la la land to me... under a week at least this time around Wait.... how in the world did any of us move to "6 days or so isn't la la land..?" Six days?! Model performance didn't just undertake some huge leap forward this season, and we have plenty of observational evidence this season that going past 72-hrs isn't a good idea for whittling down a forecast. So, again, 6 days?! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yeah, I feel the same way. But like I said earlier--one less run where the screwjob trend begins If we are talking about this after the Saturday 12z suite... I am in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 technically, 5 and 1/2, but who's counting? H5 is trending better inside of 96. You could see a better run coming early. Yea, it can all go to heck but this has been a good day. We usually have bad days. I'll enjoy it regardless Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 any post main event snow once it cools back down? looks like there's a chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wait.... how in the world did any of us move to "6 days or so isn't la la land..?" Six days?! Model performance didn't just undertake some huge leap forward this season, and we have plenty of observational evidence this season that going past 72-hrs isn't a good idea for whittling down a forecast. So, again, 6 days?! I think Yoda was drinking. Cut him some slack. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 any post main event snow once it cools back down? looks like there's a chance no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yes, but I'm so used to seeing heights ticker higher and 850's getting warmer every run that I can't help but to be a bit more encouraged than recent events.Yeah it's a good bunch of moves today overall. But I dunno if that's terribly meaningful yet. Possible we'll get a better idea a little earlier than with a NS miller b but this winter has been brutal with short term shifters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 As long as were still in the game it hasn't gone through Chicago yet. This is all you can hope for until the system gets on shore in the pacnw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's hard not to feel good about a widespread 5-10" dump followed up with sleet/zr and then a glacier. Every run that avoids a west srain event as we move forward is a good thing. Models seem locked into a decent event for now. I'll enjoy it until something tells me not to. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 all of them this year have continued the trend north once it started we had a trend north late yesterday and last night's runs, and now, at least the gfs, is trending back in our favor yeah, nothing to stop the trend in our favor, but this breaks the mold already so let's wait with the hope it will be different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Wait.... how in the world did any of us move to "6 days or so isn't la la land..?" Six days?! Model performance didn't just undertake some huge leap forward this season, and we have plenty of observational evidence this season that going past 72-hrs isn't a good idea for whittling down a forecast. So, again, 6 days?! Most of us are to blame at some pt probably. But yes ample proof this year. you almost wish everyone would stop being so literal on snow total discussion run to run at range but that's way out of the bag at this point... And not talking just here of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 this winter has been brutal with short term shifters. Truth. And I thought the 12z gfs was taking us down that path early. We live to fight another day. I wish the euro ran the same time as the gfs... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Southern MA, CVA not included. I really am not surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 all of them this year have continued the trend north once it started we had a trend north late yesterday and last night's runs, and now, at least the gfs, is trending back in our favor yeah, nothing to stop the trend in our favor, but this breaks the mold already so let's wait with the hope it will be different We had some south trends in Jan but NS dominant. Trend is kind of a misnomer anyway even though we all talk about it. at this range it's just projectile splattering vomit still.But at least we are getting 'proof' the west and strong wasn't what we wanted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 time to dabble in some frozen orange juice concentrate futures http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_180_10m_wnd_precip.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=10m_wnd_precip&fhr=180&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150212+00+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That's all we can hope for this far out--to still be in it. Life would be so much easier if those damn Europeans just ran their model on our time #Like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 It's hard not to feel good about a widespread 5-10" dump followed up with sleet/zr and then a glacier. Every run that avoids a west srain event as we move forward is a good thing. Models seem locked into a decent event for now. I'll enjoy it until something tells me not to. That second sheared troff axis sweeping through the great lakes seems to be forcing the storm east and keeping the track fairly consistent across model runs. Lets hope that feature stays the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Someone get the CMC update so I can get to bed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 man....we need a shift south and we get all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Truth. And I thought the 12z gfs was taking us down that path early. We live to fight another day. I wish the euro ran the same time as the gfs...Argh just typed up response then phone browser crashed.Basic gist.. I think a lot of sys from range have been overamped. May have some impact with Sat sys but that seems to bomb one way or another regardless of the potential for BOS to get NYC'ed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Someone get the CMC update so I can get to bed Running...only out to 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Someone get the CMC update so I can get to bed it's not there yet...only out to Sunday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 wes is going to hate the position of the 850 low. We still need a major south shift Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 CMC isn't the worst run I've ever seen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 next storm....now we're talking http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=228ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_228_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=500_vort_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150212+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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