mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 Complicated evolution but really nice to see h5 look like the gfs. @ 138 the vort is closed over michigan. Then some sort of weird double low. First one pops off the coast with a second low over PA. Very energetic in the upper levels. Not common for our area but interesting to see how it evolves. I mean, it's trending south as we move forward. That is NOT the seasonal trend we've been in the last couple weeks. I said today I could see a change in what the models were doing vs. last 3+ weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I'll take it looks like it crushes NE unlike GFS It's a miss except for the cape. All the good stuff happens off the coast...for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 It's a miss except for the cape. All the good stuff happens off the coast...for now similar to GFS....good hopefully GFS is closer to correct than Euro, since it gives us more qpf! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Complicated evolution but really nice to see h5 look like the gfs. @ 138 the vort is closed over michigan. Then some sort of weird double low. First one pops off the coast with a second low over PA. Very energetic in the upper levels. Not common for our area but interesting to see how it evolves. I mean, it's trending south as we move forward. That is NOT the seasonal trend we've been in the last couple weeks. I said today I could see a change in what the models were doing vs. last 3+ weeks. It's the very common Detroit to Ocean City track....I don't see any reason why it won't work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 It's the very common Detroit to Ocean City track....I don't see any reason why it won't work very LC'ish....well played! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Here she comes...out of the 4-corners....so far out and yet I want the euro to crush us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 Here she comes...out of the 4-corners....so far out and yet I want the euro to crush us need a brief pbp....I'm out of options past 7 days until Accuwx comes out at 2AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 need a brief pbp....I'm out of options past 7 days until Accuwx comes out at 2AM the storm kind of falls apart and then the predictable happens....we get dryslotted...maybe 1"...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 wow, 998 on TX/OK panhandle day 8....that'll cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 the storm kind of falls apart and then the predictable happens....we get dryslotted...maybe 1"...lol even starting out at 998 on day 8? that doesn't make any sense I guess I'll have to wait for better maps thanks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 wow, 998 on TX/OK panhandle day 8....that'll cut h5 is very flat. It traverses and gets sheared. And we'll get 16 more runs to figure it out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 That Arctic airmass is dominating..vort opens and is kinda crushed.. Honestly, I'm oksy with that at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 h5 is very flat. It traverses and gets sheared. And we'll get 16 more runs to figure it out. very flat is a sword and shield....keeps it from cutting but doesn't allow for development...in this case, kills it like you said, a few more runs left Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 very flat is a sword and shield....keeps it from cutting but doesn't allow for development...in this case, kills it like you said, a few more runs left We should focus on next weekend anyways. Still in lala but euro/gfs actually moved in the favorable direction. Couple more shifts and we'll have a bowling ball in TN. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 We should focus on next weekend anyways. Still in lala but euro/gfs actually moved in the favorable direction. Couple more shifts and we'll have a bowling ball in TN. lol yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I'm not sure the 6z gfs agrees with any of this lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I'm not desperate enough to chase inverted trough snow from an unlikely northern stream scenario to begin with. Especially since I'm gone thru Sunday morning. But.. that's like -28C into WVClimo's hood if my small map squinting is working. Poo. that weird norlun look has been on several runs and always somewhere new. Even if it's real it won't be where models place it from this range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Forgetting the Clipper for a second, next Wednesday? Believe it when it happens, but still looks ok to me. I'm sure it will change though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 GFS LR is depressing, we get epic cold in the mid-range, no blocking, STJ finally wakes up, and boom we rain.why are you worried about that yet? Long range looks a lot like last year. Those storms can easily trend south it's going to totally depend on the setup in the northern branch as each stj system ejects. Looks like several waves and one prob will cut and one could easily be suppressed too. Have to roll dice and hope one hits. It's not a bad look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Forgetting the Clipper for a second, next Wednesday? Believe it when it happens, but still looks ok to me. I'm sure it will change though. 6z actually looked better...0z looked wound up which we don't need..of course we are once again at day 10 so not even worth a mention at this point..but it is the one I am watching as a last hurrah maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The temp color maps always make things look worse/better than they actually are. Text output for the euro shows the cold for the coming weekend and into next week is cold, but nothing we're not used. Single digits for BWI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 GFS LR is depressing, we get epic cold in the mid-range, no blocking, STJ finally wakes up, and boom we rain. Would you rather it look "epic" and turn out to be nothing but the same old bag of crap again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Epic cold is better than epic warmth - at least we have a chance for a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 12Z NAM @84 hr is also suggesting a little something early Friday, as the GFS has been with the lead clipper. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 12Z NAM @84 hr is also suggesting a little something early Friday, as the GFS has been with the lead clipper. it's crazy how the models keep dropping these short waves near due south and off the coast to our SE if not with this one, maybe the next one pops as I said in the old thread, I "think" it has something to do with today's "storm" drastically lowering heights off the coast, but that's a guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Still have trouble seeing how either gives us much. Ensembles are north with the weekend event.. getting something like that to be good here would be pretty surprising. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 One thing for sure the long range guidance blows. This ridge west trough east pattern may last forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 One thing for sure the long range guidance blows. This ridge west trough east pattern may last forever. some how its west ridge..east troughs and storms still track north of us because Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 some how its west ridge..east troughs and storms still track north of us because looks like the first clipper may have the best shot of the two. still need some help but looks decent on the gfs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 some how its west ridge..east troughs and storms still track north of us because no -NAO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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