mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Yes, and broader. We will never do well with NS storms dropping down from MN/MI and the "uphill" side of the trough being off the coast means no chance to have something turn the corner and come up to us. Just not enough real estate. With a more broad trough and axis further west than it is now opens the door for southern systems to come up and also northern systems to go underneath. ETA: the fact that we actually may get a little precip on Saturday is impressive. It's a terrible track but the vort is so amped and enough cold is in place that we score a little fringe before the front. Usually we get zip or rain showers with that track. actually in the 70's that used to be the norm with events to our west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 EPS/GEFS have nice cold look all the way through the ends of.the runs. Both have a decent trough axis from d8-15. Still no blocking but not a dry look. Seems possible for a respectable comeback even with mixed events. If we could get some stuff to finally break our way, dca 12+, IAD 20+, and bwi 16+ could happen before the month ends. I'll remain skeptical but the general look isn't a warm snowless one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 EPS/GEFS have nice cold look all the way through the ends of.the runs. Both have a decent trough axis from d8-15. Still no blocking but not a dry look. Seems possible for a respectable comeback even with mixed events. If we could get some stuff to finally break our way, dca 12+, IAD 20+, and bwi 16+ could happen before the month ends. I'll remain skeptical but the general look isn't a warm snowless one my mentality is now something between a "salvage" or "search and rescue" mission for winter so I plan on remaining positive to what I hope is not a bitter end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Still at a point where it wouldn't take anything crazy to reach climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 What are the official airport totals right now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 What are the official airport totals right now? BWI I think is 6.8", or thereabouts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We are never far from climo here heh. Mitch is right on BWI. Others are correct above. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 BWI is running at exactly 50% below climo at this point... pretty terrible winter so far but I'm glad we have a chance to catch up next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 We are never far from climo here heh. Mitch is right on BWI. Others are correct above. Lol- climo seems like a low bar but for some reason or another getting there takes a lot of work and luck way more often than not. Getting there this year doesn't look too good but getting close enough to look back at the #s and rate the year as ok after enough time has elapsed to forget the despair thread seems possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm guessing BWI saw some measurable recently? The preliminary NCDC data for BWI seems to have been last updated on Feb 2nd (when looking at the monthly weather summaries)0.4" on the 1st. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Lol- climo seems like a low bar but for some reason or another getting there takes a lot of work and luck way more often than not. Getting there this year doesn't look too good but getting close enough to look back at the #s and rate the year as ok after enough time has elapsed to forget the despair thread seems possible. Yeah should give it a good try at least. Still kinda like sub 10" at DCA but that's not a huge stretch anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm at 33% climo. Unless the next 4 weeks are very interesting, I won't even sniff climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 There are a few gfs members that are magnificent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm at 33% climo. Unless the next 4 weeks are very interesting, I won't even sniff climo. so tired of hearing the word "climo" its an excuse!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 There are a few gfs members that are magnificent Tonight my friend. Tonight is the night we get cold smoked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 I knew y'all got something up there but I can't remember the date. Too focused on my backyard and all snow airport we are....we airport trash that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Tonight my friend. Tonight is the night we get cold smoked. Smoked meaning the low cuts up the appalachians Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Smoked meaning the low cuts up the appalachians not ideal but as long as it thumps us... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm not staying up for the euro tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Smoked meaning the low cuts up the appalachians That'll work with heavy precip and some semblance of a high in the ne Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I'm not staying up for the euro tonight I can't believe you were sleeping last not. Yee of little faith. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I can't believe you were sleeping last not. Yee of little faith. I was up...anyway....sick EPO pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 I was up...anyway....sick EPO pattern. this ensemble product says we lose the PNA at the end of the month, but build the EPO some ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4panel.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Have we discussed the DGEX? Looks like 2.5-3" QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That low that bombs out 78-90 hours gets down to 963...that's gotta help us downstream...at least that's what I'm wishcasting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 That low that bombs out 78-90 hours gets down to 963...that's gotta help us downstream...at least that's what I'm wishcasting. You are correct. We'll see where it goes but my money is on a slightly colder and better track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS looks good through 123 I believe you are correct on that aspect Randy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 7am snowing and DCA is 17...going to be a battle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS looks pretty darn good with the thump so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Coming west this run, question is now long the surface temps can hold.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.