mappy Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Good trends today, maybe I'll get more than 3" for a change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Time to start a thread for our 1984 like storm were getting in march March is the new January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Time to start a thread for our 1984 like storm were getting in march A bit off topic, but the end of February into mid-March was incredible in northeast Ohio (Cleveland area). I was in high school at the time there. After a very warm February (1984) for the first 3 weeks of the month, it quickly got very cold, then we got hammered with a great storm (~16") from Feb. 27-29 (the "Leap Day Storm" as some called it), then a clipper on March 8 dumped 8" on us along with record cold. It was great! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Good trends today, maybe I'll get more than 3" for a change. Thanks for putting the RR signal out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I forgot how much fun tracking can be. Wednesday morning might look like an arctic wasteland if temps really drop to those levels after an all day mix event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Thanks for putting the RR signal out. Similar to Dec 8, 2013? Anyone? How about Dec 26, 2012? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 March is the new January Will be interesting to see if we can close Feb with respectable totals at DCA. I'd say 10-12" on the season at the end of Feb would be a victory considering how tough it's been to get things to break right. I can't pull yesterdays graph but 12z is much improved for next week's event D10-15 remains active for chances at least. About 8" for mean snowfall over the 15 day period. Highest it's been for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Thanks for putting the RR signal out. I do what I can Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Similar to Dec 8, 2013? Anyone? How about Dec 26, 2012? The depiction kinda reminds me of 12/8 last winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Thanks for putting the RR signal out. Good evening you called fine sir. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Similar to Dec 8, 2013? Anyone? How about Dec 26, 2012? Not sure how many inches people got with those two . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Good evening you called fine sir. Wow, like the Bat Signal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Not sure how many inches people got with those two . My memory is a little sketchy, but I was about 5" in 2012, and about 7" in 2013....both followed by a solid glaze of freezing rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Wow, like the Bat Signal. You know it. I have an inch detector, that is why this winter has sucked. I have been called very few times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 A couple of Gefs members develop a second low and stall it over us next Wednesday. That's the solution I'm rooting for. A couple are plain cutters also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 a 2/12-13/14 would be my la-la-land goal on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Bob....look at the angle of the trough...FINALLLLY!!! http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=nhem&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=10day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest makes all the difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Mitch, euro ens d10-15 look basically identical. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Maybe a bit off topic but since we are analyzing temperatures for different areas and times during next weeks storm, I was wondering if someone could shed a little light on reading soundings. Specifically the rate of precipitation. I am looking at text output and the relative humidity specifically. First, is this what we look at to determine precipitation rates and second, where do the lines between high, moderate and heavy get drawn? Is it the relative humidity through x number of layers in the atmosphere or does just the surface (and near surface) matter? What percentages determine light, moderate and heavy? Thanks in advance for any assistance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Bob....look at the angle of the trough...FINALLLLY!!! http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=nhem&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=10day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest makes all the difference the split vortex HM tweeted about finally happening Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 the split vortex HM tweeted about finally happening Ridiculous. My contest wager that DC doesn't get more than 3 inches in a 24 hr may bust. Hallelujah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 the split vortex HM tweeted about finally happening Not really. Very briefly at 50hpa next week but it looks like another bend don't break. It get's squeezed into the shape of a peanut but ends up going back to the shape of a m&m. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Bob....look at the angle of the trough...FINALLLLY!!! http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=nhem&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=10day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest makes all the difference Maybe we'll get something plowable before the forsythias start blooming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Not really. Very briefly at 50hpa next week but it looks like another bend don't break. It get's squeezed into the shape of a peanut but ends up going back to the shape of a m&m. don't know but HM response was "finally" like it was a big deal!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Bob....look at the angle of the trough...FINALLLLY!!! http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=nhem&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1024x768&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=10day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest makes all the difference Could someone please explain what we're supposed to be looking at here? Is it that the trough has shifted west? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Maybe a bit off topic but since we are analyzing temperatures for different areas and times during next weeks storm, I was wondering if someone could shed a little light on reading soundings. Specifically the rate of precipitation. I am looking at text output and the relative humidity specifically. First, is this what we look at to determine precipitation rates and second, where do the lines between high, moderate and heavy get drawn? Is it the relative humidity through x number of layers in the atmosphere or does just the surface (and near surface) matter? What percentages determine light, moderate and heavy? Thanks in advance for any assistance. I'm not the best person to answer this, but generally the best way to eyeball precipitation rates is the distance between the temperature and dew point lines at certain layers. The shorter the difference between the two lines, the heavier the precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Could someone please explain what we're supposed to be looking at here? Is it that the trough has shifted west? IMO, it's both that its further west, a good thing, and its is less progressive on the east side, something might actually turn up the coast. That's just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Could someone please explain what we're supposed to be looking at here? Is it that the trough has shifted west? Yes, and broader. We will never do well with NS storms dropping down from MN/MI and the "uphill" side of the trough being off the coast means no chance to have something turn the corner and come up to us. Just not enough real estate. With a more broad trough and axis further west than it is now opens the door for southern systems to come up and also northern systems to go underneath. ETA: the fact that we actually may get a little precip on Saturday is impressive. It's a terrible track but the vort is so amped and enough cold is in place that we score a little fringe before the front. Usually we get zip or rain showers with that track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looks like a bit of a split flow on the LR GFS, if we can get the STJ to cut underneath a nice cold dome, we could be in for a nice Late Feb storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 IMO, it's both that its further west, a good thing, and its is less progressive on the east side, something might actually turn up the coast. That's just a guess. Yes, and broader. We will never do well with NS storms dropping down from MN/MI and the "uphill" side of the trough being off the coast means no chance to have something turn the corner and come up to us. Just not enough real estate. With a more broad trough and axis further west than it is now opens the door for southern systems to come up and also northern systems to go underneath. ETA: the fact that we actually may get a little precip on Saturday is impressive. It's a terrible track but the vort is so amped and enough cold is in place that we score a little fringe before the front. Usually we get zip or rain showers with that track. Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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