Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Good trends today. Let's keep it going Happy Hour GFS delivers? Looks like it. Much better than the previous 3 cycles today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Good trends today. Let's keep it going yes, I've noticed you've been posting less today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Freezing line never makes it west of Arlington whole storm...DCA's highest reading is 34...colder at all other 3 hour intervals Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 best guess...DCA is 4-5" before flip..more north and west Outright flip to rain, or more of a mix (not that it matters to parse that much right now)? Maps are kind of slow for me so I'm not seeing some of the later panels some of you are. I'm wondering if the relatively warm period is brief, supporting maybe a flip back, or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Good trends today. Let's keep it going enjoy your 6" of snow followed by .3" of sleet and freezing rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 enjoy your 6" of snow followed by .3" of sleet and freezing rain Crust it over baby!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 A big change appears to be not having a low just north of the Lakes. Or, at least not as much of one compared to 12Z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormpc Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think I get more excited for modeled snow than when its actually falling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Feeling trends are good today. Semi happy hour is back! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 enjoy your 6" of snow followed by .3" of sleet and freezing rain It's a widespread 4-6" followed by sleet/zr/rain then glaciation overnight. Looks like N-NE MD jackpot with 8" or so. A 50-75 mile shift east with the track and it's a huge hit. We won't speak of a west shift. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks like a brief period above freezing from 4pm-7pm for most of us except far western burbs like okv/fdk. ETA: 4pm-10pm. Cold rain during that period. Ugh...that sounds rather unpleasant! (ETA: Unless I'm not interpreting that correctly) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ugh...that sounds rather unpleasant! (ETA: Unless I'm not interpreting that correctly) Details like that aren't worth dissecting. Track is decent and frontrunning precip is solid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Details like that aren't worth dissecting. Track is decent and frontrunning precip is solid. True enough. Sounds like it freezes over into a brick afterward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Outright flip to rain, or more of a mix (not that it matters to parse that much right now)? Maps are kind of slow for me so I'm not seeing some of the later panels some of you are. I'm wondering if the relatively warm period is brief, supporting maybe a flip back, or not. No flip back,...I know this is silly, but best guess looking at soundings and panels. For DC 3am - 2pm: 4" snow 2pm - 5pm - Mod to heavy sleet 5pm - 9pm - Freezing Rain 9pm - 1am - Rain Then back below freezing by 2-3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 No flip back,...I know this is silly, but best guess looking at soundings and panels. For DC 3am - 2pm: 4" snow 2pm - 5pm - Mod to heavy sleet 5pm - 9pm - Freezing Rain 9pm - 1am - Rain Then back below freezing by 2-3am it's not silly because we haven't been able to do it w/in 24 hours this year so what the he!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 No flip back,...I know this is silly, but best guess looking at soundings and panels. For DC 3am - 2pm: 4" snow 2pm - 5pm - Mod to heavy sleet 5pm - 9pm - Freezing Rain 9pm - 1am - Rain Then back below freezing by 2-3am No, not silly...thanks for looking at those details (even if at this range, it's for interest only). If something like this pans out, it will be a mess both Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning. Correction: Pretty much all of Tuesday would be a total mess if this is what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 No, not silly...thanks for looking at those details (even if at this range, it's for interest only). If something like this pans out, it will be a mess both Tuesday morning and Wednesday morning. Correction: Pretty much all of Tuesday would be a total mess if this is what happens. Tuesday at 10pm, DCA is 6. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It's a widespread 4-6" followed by sleet/zr/rain then glaciation overnight. Looks like N-NE MD jackpot with 8" or so. A 50-75 mile shift east with the track and it's a huge hit. We won't speak of a west shift. Overnight low at DCA Tuesday night of 3. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Now that the GFS jumped off the amped/west solution from 12z, the euro/gfs/ukie/ggem are all about the same with the track. Not a terrible place to be right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks like we have 1-2" on the ground by rush hour Tues morn. As Wes said, need to be careful about overamped and all the frontrunning going into PA This is about a best case scenario.. I need to do stuff tomorrow morning or would write a CWG article on it. Instead, I'll probably do a quote. The GFS track and evolution is the way you get a front end thump. WOuld be a big storm for JI, snow to sleet and probably freezing rain though I haven't looked at the soundings. I'm a tad worried that the warming will come in above 850 so our snow period will be shorter than we think assuming the track stays the same, a big assumption. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Obligatory Boston post: it rains on Mass this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looking forward to possibility of 0 to 5 at Andrews, Ft Belvoir, Annapolis and DCA coming in at 13. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 lol- GFS has a near identical setup @ d9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Obligatory Boston post: it rains on Mass this run I don't know...BOS looks right on the line (just looking at 2m temps & 850), but certainly the Cape looks warmer. But then again, why bother to care? LOL!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 lol- GFS has a near identical setup @ d9. LMAO!!! It's programmed in, I tell ya! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I don't know...BOS looks right on the line (just looking at 2m temps & 850), but certainly the Cape looks warmer. But then again, why bother to care? LOL!! Time for them to share. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Time for them to share. If they get that blizzard from the bombed-out Clipper this weekend, then this system next week would probably put them near or over the century mark for snowfall. Even if they mix or change over (but changing over for them is unconstitutional, so...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 lol- GFS has a near identical setup @ d9. 2-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Time to start a thread for our 1984 like storm were getting in march Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 324h on the gfs op is just insane with it's 500mb anom! Out in la la land but good grief... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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