cae Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The ensembles where to the south of us in the last storm and jumped N and W in one model run. That can always happen, but the ensembles are arguably the best tool we have at this range. I wasn't too optimistic about the last storm because it had little ensemble support. This storm looks better. FWIW, both the ensembles and GFS op suggest an active pattern continuing to the end of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The ensembles where to the south of us in the last storm and jumped N and W in one model run. different scenario. That was from a diving system Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 different scenario. That was from a diving system You have weatherbell right? Take a look at the ukie precip panel @ 144. Just outside of range but it would imply a solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 You have weatherbell right? Take a look at the ukie precip panel @ 144. Just outside of range but it would imply a solid hit. Hey Bob...what's the next week system looking like for New York? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 You have weatherbell right? Take a look at the ukie precip panel @ 144. Just outside of range but it would imply a solid hit. yes...you would think we would be in the green color at 150...but if seen these things skip us...leave us in gray and put PA in green:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Hey Bob...what's the next week system looking like for New York? by the time it hits NY..its mostly rain for them. But maybe you will somehow get 12 again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 You have weatherbell right? Take a look at the ukie precip panel @ 144. Just outside of range but it would imply a solid hit. UKMET would imply likely an all snow event or 90% snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 yes...you would think we would be in the green color at 150...but if seen these things skip us...leave us in gray and put PA in green:) Look at the pressure contours. There's a low forming right at the nc/sc border just off the coast. I'm extrapolating a pretty big/cold storm on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Look at the pressure contours. There's a low forming right at the nc/sc border just off the coast. I'm extrapolating a pretty big/cold storm on that run. yep...UKMET is pretty much best case scenario. Ive liked this threat since it first came on the radar. Baja low with Artic Air nearby is usually a good recipie for something fun. Its a different look than 2 heartbreaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 never ever doubt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 yep...UKMET is pretty much best case scenario. Ive liked this threat since it first came on the radar. Baja low with Artic Air nearby is usually a good recipie for something fun. Its a different look than 2 heartbreaks. Euro and ukie are pretty similar with the ukie being more juiced and colder of course. Lot's of euro members looked like the op and the ukie as well. I'm starting to think the GFS may cave a bit from being so wet and west. We'll see. Between now and sunday is going to feel like a year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 never ever doubt The doughnut is back...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I was planning on going with the wife and baby to Boston this weekend for the holiday anyways....I want to go ever more now, but am nervous because we have 3 1/2 month old little Stephen with us. We would be hunkered down in a hotel of course but still... don't want to get stuck in any bad situations with him. Not sure what to do, first time parent, kids don't really come with an instruction manual. (but they should) You are asking for trouble if you take a 3.5 month old with you to Boston. My two cents, being a fairly new parent myself. 15 month girl and another girl due in July. If you do go, I'm sure you know that you'll need to take loads of supplies for the baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GFS isn't digging the vort to phoenix this time. Looks like it won't be as amped and probably not as nw as 12z. I shouldn't extrapolate but I can't help it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 GFS isn't digging the vort to phoenix this time. Looks like it won't be as amped and probably not as nw as 12z. I shouldn't extrapolate but I can't help it. that vort in Canada is a bit further east and a little north of 12z too, so that should help I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 that vort in Canada is a bit further east and a little north of 12z too, so that should help I think Heights look a good bit better in the middle of the country and our area. Hopefully the amped 12z run was a blip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Heights look a good bit better in the middle of the country and our area. Hopefully the amped 12z run was a blip. Bob don't get crazy...let the man make his soup...heights do look better..slightly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The fact that the surface low is nearly in Houston has to be a good sign Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks like we have 1-2" on the ground by rush hour Tues morn. As Wes said, need to be careful about overamped and all the frontrunning going into PA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This is a good run. Euro/ukie type look. Snowing by 4am tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm betting this run drops 6+ in our area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 3" on ground at 1pm and DCA is about to flip. 28 degrees. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Colder, should be a better. 29-31 1:00pm Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Nice. Close to .50 before my yard loses 850's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Nice. Close to .50 before my yard loses 850's. surface stay cold past losing 850's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 DCA rain/mix, but all burbs are below freezing at 7pm...but not snow.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 DCA rain/mix, but all burbs are below freezing at 7pm...but not snow.. sounds like an old fashion snow to mix event we used to get regularly.....sign me up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 surface stay cold past losing 850's?Looks like a brief period above freezing from 4pm-7pm for most of us except far western burbs like okv/fdk.ETA: 4pm-10pm. Cold rain during that period. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 best guess...DCA is 4-5" before flip..more north and west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Good trends today. Let's keep it going Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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