WxUSAF Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Some pretty extreme cold shots on both the GFS and EC at 12Z. Anyone know the last time DCA or even BWI had single digit lows in February ? BWI had lows of 4 and 5F last March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Fast mover. Looking at the TropTidbits Euro map for 144 - 168 hours it seems the surface low moves from East Texas to Boston in 24 hours if I'm reading that right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 After 0z tonight, should we make a thread for Saturday?Possible. We make one for everything else. Could be a 1-1.5" fluff for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 sucks talking about 3 different events in one thread Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 sucks talking about 3 different events in one thread 2 really won't count Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I started a flizzard and wind thread. We can stick with srain disco here and avoid confusing posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Possible. We make one for everything else. Could be a 1-1.5" fluff for some. lol we are scraping to get a chance at 1-1.5 inches, and ho hum Boston is looking at another 1-1.5 feet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Thanks Fozz and WxUsaf. Didn't remember that BWI bottomed out so nicely last March. Last winter just grows in stature with the more time that passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 After 0z tonight, should we make a thread for Saturday? I think we should start threads for every separate possible precipitation event between now and the end of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 lol we are scraping to get a chance at 1-1.5 inches, and ho hum Boston is looking at another 1-1.5 feet. LOL! Yeah. Maybe now we'll stop hearing some of them flap their gums about how we "stole" from them during 2009-10 or something, or how we still "deserve" to "pay" for that. If that clipper bombs out how the guidance is showing, they'll almost certainly have over 90" for the season. Almost all of that fell since the last week of January. At least they didn't put up with cold rain after cold rain when we got bombed five years ago, and they had a not half-bad winter all the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I started a flizzard and wind thread. We can stick with srain disco here and avoid confusing posts. i think we are a lock for a some kind of storm for the 16th/17th. I think it may be time to start a thread for that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I agree but next week is an eternity away. Let's wait a couple more runs so we have more confidence in sig frozen? Yeah start a thread now and surely that low will be headed for Detroit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 i think this will be our best storm of the season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 i think we are a lock for a some kind of storm for the 16th/17th. I think it may be time to start a thread for that 72 hour rule. Flizzard meets that criteria. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 randy and I are going if guidance holds.. I was planning on going with the wife and baby to Boston this weekend for the holiday anyways....I want to go ever more now, but am nervous because we have 3 1/2 month old little Stephen with us. We would be hunkered down in a hotel of course but still... don't want to get stuck in any bad situations with him. Not sure what to do, first time parent, kids don't really come with an instruction manual. (but they should) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 i think we are a lock for a some kind of storm for the 16th/17th. I think it may be time to start a thread for that Way too soon. Its Wednesday. I'd give it to friday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah start a thread now and surely that low will be headed for Detroit. I am still not convinced it is not headed for Detroit. 18z should perhaps show signs of more SE trend...Euro can jump hundred miles at a time in one 24 hour period Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Verbatim, after an inch of snow, the 12UT Euro gives BWi 0.4" of precipitation during a 6-hour period (00-06 UT Wednesday) in which the 850 hPa temperature rises from 28 to 38, the 1000-500 hPa thickness increases from 543 to 549, and the surface temperature increases from 30 to 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I am still not convinced it is not headed for Detroit. 18z should perhaps show signs of more SE trend...Euro can jump hundred miles at a time in one 24 hour period its a week away, why would we be convinced of ANYTHING at this point. What is different about this situation seems to be more cold in front (maybe) what is the same is the AO/NAO still want to be awful and that means high pressure will offer little resistance and move out of the way easily. That usually leaves us vulnerable to a track to our NW. Sound familiar. We don't need the AO/NAO to be good to score if other factors are in our favor, but we need it to not be god awful wretched with the PV located right over Greenland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Not allowed sat.JPG if you are on a windows 7 or 8 machine.. use the snipping tool! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro ensembles are pretty encouraging. The west tracks that suck for us are in the far minority. Many look like the op but the front running precip that hits south hits us. Definitely snow to mix scenario in the majority but overall it's a good run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think we should start threads for every separate possible precipitation event between now and the end of March. Hell yes. I want a full and complete record of our fail to look back on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 I was planning on going with the wife and baby to Boston this weekend for the holiday anyways....I want to go ever more now, but am nervous because we have 3 1/2 month old little Stephen with us. We would be hunkered down in a hotel of course but still... don't want to get stuck in any bad situations with him. Not sure what to do, first time parent, kids don't really come with an instruction manual. (but they should) they break easy too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Compared to last night's euro ensembles, it's actually a fairly substantial improvement. Trending the right way just doesn't feel right. Plenty of time for that to change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Compared to last night's euro ensembles, it's actually a fairly substantial improvement. Trending the right way just doesn't feel right. Plenty of time for that to change. except for the GFS, the runs have been fairly encouraging today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GEFS and Canadian ensembles took a step towards each other compared to 00z, with the Canadian ensembles making a clear shift northwest. There's a fair amount of spread -- everything from the Great Lakes to Miller As. Looking at the meteograms, it appears that there's a fair amount of support for the front-end-thump idea. The GGEM op run looks like a significant ice storm for I95 in Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 except for the GFS, the runs have been fairly encouraging today I agree. I'm mostly encouraged by the euro ens supporting lp tracking far enough south and a band of precip in here before things get dicey when it makes the turn. I was expecting a worse version of last night's run. I wish it wasn't so far away though. Especially with inherent flaws that aren't going away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Not allowed sat.JPG Thanks.........looks like Sycamore bark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I agree. I'm mostly encouraged by the euro ens supporting lp tracking far enough south and a band of precip in here before things get dicey when it makes the turn. I was expecting a worse version of last night's run. I wish it wasn't so far away though. Especially with inherent flaws that aren't going away. not getting worse is a win for us. I really did except to see the euro show a a Miller B track today heading towards Dayton Ohio lol. that is probably still on the table too! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro ensembles are pretty encouraging. The west tracks that suck for us are in the far minority. Many look like the op but the front running precip that hits south hits us. Definitely snow to mix scenario in the majority but overall it's a good run. The ensembles where to the south of us in the last storm and jumped N and W in one model run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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