MN Transplant Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Anyone have surface winds on the Euro? GFS was 25 mph sustained from a 60+mph 850 level wind. Looks like the Euro is much windier aloft. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro coming in a good bit less amped in front of the vort in the west @ 120 than last night's run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro coming in a good bit less amped in front of the vort in the west @ 120 than last night's run. That is good, yes? Want to make sure what I am rooting for next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Anyone have surface winds on the Euro? GFS was 25 mph sustained from a 60+mph 850 level wind. Looks like the Euro is much windier aloft. 18 hours of gusts over 50mph. wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That is good, yes? Want to make sure what I am rooting for next week yes looks a good bit better than last night thru 144 eta: or just dry (thru 150) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It's an 11 day ensemble mean and pulls the 10 closest matches to similar height patterns within a reasonable timeframe. I'm not sure the forward and back date parameters but they are always within 2-3 weeks before and after the target date. Top left is correlation. In this case, .946 which is pretty high. Basic follow-up question if I may. I probably don't look as much at these charts as I should, so I'm not as familiar other than when I see them in here. Anyhow...about the correlation: is that the correlation between the (forecast mean) height pattern and all the historical dates taken together, or with the top analogue date, or is it something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Thank god. Was worried they might miss one. LOL, yeah really. But I do like the chances of getting srain at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 yes looks a good bit better than last night thru 144 eta: or just dry (thru 150) Well 144 MSLP looks pretty good to me at least... since its in E TX/W LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 euro suppressed tuesday...maybe a good thing,, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 euro suppressed tuesday...maybe a good thing,, definitely better than the other thing. still gonna warm nicely as the low cranks a bit it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 18 hours of gusts over 50mph. wow. Yikes. Stuck between a 970mb low and a 1044mb high will do that. Sunday might be impressive around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 euro suppressed tuesday...maybe a good thing,, forget that..it comes up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 forget that..it comes up Do we even want to know the gory details? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 forget that..it comes up it is still a better look overall maybe.. tho the end result is about the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Do we even want to know the gory details? some frontrunning light stuff....then I'd wager 2-4" before we flip EDIT - for close in western burbs, 32 or below whole event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 some frontrunning light stuff....then I'd wager 2-4" before we flip HP to our NW doesn't help at all? ETA: 0c 850 line just west of I-95 at 168... 1002 SLP in S NC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yikes. Stuck between a 970mb low and a 1044mb high will do that. Sunday might be impressive around here. Storm to near hurricane force gusts on the bay. Gusts reach 65mph. Not a good boating day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yikes. Stuck between a 970mb low and a 1044mb high will do that. Sunday might be impressive around here. Yeah 850/925mb winds are impressive on the Euro between hr 90 and 105. We'd probably meet high wind warning criteria if that verified.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 HP to our NW doesn't help at all? stop doing this....I am relaying what the run says...your constant academic questions don't change what the run does Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 some frontrunning light stuff....then I'd wager 2-4" before we flip EDIT - for close in western burbs, 32 or below whole event Does it have the same thing as the GFS...i.e., light amount of snow followed by deluge of cold rain? Ugh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Storm to near hurricane force gusts on the bay. Gusts reach 65mph. Not a good boating day. Already not looking forward to flying back from FL sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Already not looking forward to flying back from FL sunday morning. Heh, Descent and landing should be fun. Might consider a zanax the size of a dinner plate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Does it have the same thing as the GFS...i.e., light amount of snow followed by deluge of cold rain? Ugh. it's a markedly better run than the GFS but still 6 days away so doesnt really matter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euro has 10m wind gusts 70-80 mph along the coast early Sunday. Woof. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 HP to our NW doesn't help at all? ETA: 0c 850 line just west of I-95 at 168... 1002 SLP in S NC Geez...one would think a 1002 low in NC would be pretty good, yet the 850 line pushes (just) west of the area! Well, I suppose that's somewhat better than the GFS, and from what I saw earlier, better than last night's 00Z Euro. As for the H to the NW, I'm not seeing the Euro right now but going by what the GFS had, that high pushed more in behind the system rather than over-top (or something like that). Similar to what happened Feb. 1-2 in some ways. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 it is still a better look overall maybe.. tho the end result is about the same. The euro a better look than the GFS, would be a mess for the western folks even after the changeover since it would stay below freezing for an extended period. For me, an inch or two, the one good thing for getting some snow accumulation even with a temp that might edge above freezing is that he ground temps will still be frigid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 does the Euro show any measurable qpf for Sat eve.? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 it's a markedly better run than the GFS but still 6 days away so doesnt really matter... No, details definitely are not as much an issue right now. I was just curious whether it's a cold washout, which the 00Z and 12Z GFS had (06Z to a lesser extent with lighter QPF). Sounds like the Euro is at least better than that...and an improvement on last night's Euro too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 does the Euro show any measurable qpf for Sat eve.? yes...maybe an inch for me and you..maybe a bit more Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 does the Euro show any measurable qpf for Sat eve.? .05-.10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.