Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This looks similar to Super Bowl Sunday. Maybe this one trends to us instead of away from us. i dont mind that it cuts west....i just hope it tracks more south first...we need to really maximize the front end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 we just need to shut up...take this run and head for the hills Sweet... I'd lock it up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 we just need to shut up...take this run and head for the hills lol its horrible compared to 0z. Still trending... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 lol its horrible compared to 0z. Still trending... 00z GGEM barely gave us any snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 No way the Ukmet would cut...Looks good at 144 hr....if not a little suppressed. It looked really nice last night too. Extrapolating from 144 looked like a solid hit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It looked really nice last night too. Extrapolating from 144 looked like a solid hit. i think its too early to give up on this storm. I would wait till about 1:40pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 00z GGEM barely gave us any snow US as in YOU? It "gave" me 6" lol. Point is it has shifted quite a bit in one run. Starts suppressed then plays catch up. Crap model. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This looks similar to Super Bowl Sunday. Maybe this one trends to us instead of away from us. You'd think with nearly 57 consecutive disasters we could win one inside of 4 days. We may need the other team to not show up and forfeit to get there but a win is a win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 12z GGEM is a take it and run run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It looked really nice last night too. Extrapolating from 144 looked like a solid hit. This is what it looks like at 144 on today's 12z run: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 we just need to shut up...take this run and head for the hills Well, the "hills" sure would do well with that! But yeah, take that and run if we had to. I saw some discussion that the GGEM follows this with sleet and ice afterward? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 You'd think with nearly 57 consecutive disasters we could win one inside of 4 days. We may need the other team to not show up and forfeit to get there but a win is a win. Ha...no kidding! Either that or we need to, uhhh, "deflate" that persistent center of low heights over Greenland! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 There was a better setup than this at least once a week last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Southerly flow on west side of Bermuda high for the loss. You'd think a low that tracks through northwest LA would be good news. Interesting transition from winter-like system with CCB to spring-like system with most of the precipitation in advance of the low. Dreaded SE ridge. Still a long ways in the future --- not sure we should think in terms of trending yet --- just another possible solution Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The cold and wind could underperform on Sunday and it would still be nasty out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Some notable periods on the list. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Sorry for the noob question, but how exactly do these work? It picks a period of time (one day? 7 days?) and tries to analyze which prior patterns best match up? It's an 11 day ensemble mean and pulls the 10 closest matches to similar height patterns within a reasonable timeframe. I'm not sure the forward and back date parameters but they are always within 2-3 weeks before and after the target date. Top left is correlation. In this case, .946 which is pretty high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It's an 11 day ensemble mean and pulls the 10 closest matches to similar height patterns within a reasonable timeframe. I'm not sure the forward and back date parameters but they are always within 2-3 weeks before and after the target date. Top left is correlation. In this case, .946 which is pretty high. It's a 5 day centered mean centered on day 11. I look for storm that are within 3 days of the centered mean dates provided. I think anything beyoond that is risky to do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The cold and wind could underperform on Sunday and it would still be nasty out. Most areas probably won't reach 20 degrees if some of these 850 temps are right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It's a 5 day centered mean centered on day 11. I look for storm that are within 3 days of the centered mean dates provided. I think anything beyoond that is risky to do. I do the same after you posted about that a while back. The superstorm is at the edge but close...LOL I read my post and it came off wrong. I meant centered on d11 and not "an 11 day". That didn't make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It seems to me that all trends are south on the 17th-18th threat but the overall pattern would not support much of an over-correction so you may end up with a snowstorm out of this one (finally). Severe cold does make it all the way to the Gulf coast in the wake of the system so broadly speaking the climo would support a coastal track. A slight snow cover laid down on Sunday would help your chances too. But that massive albedo changer in the past three weeks over the northeast is the real high card in the deck here, every weak high that gets over that snow pack is going to radiate like crazy and feed back cold enough surface layers to help your chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 To no one's surprised, Euro is a hit for SNE/NNE. It's between there and the Lakes...I'm traveling, screw this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 To know one's surprised, Euro is a hit for SNE/NNE. It's between there and the Lakes...I'm traveling, screw this. Good lord. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Who cares about boston getting snow. A stronger storm could help us with our potential srain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 To know one's surprised, Euro is a hit for SNE/NNE. It's between there and the Lakes...I'm traveling, screw this. Thank god. Was worried they might miss one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 To know one's surprised, Euro is a hit for SNE/NNE. It's between there and the Lakes...I'm traveling, screw this. it's snowing there right now, and has been for hours, thanks to a breeze off the ocean idk, as much as I want a decent storm, that is more than this area could ever handle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 To know one's surprised, Euro is a hit for SNE/NNE. It's between there and the Lakes...I'm traveling, screw this. Eventually they gotta fail but Euro/GFS aren't that far off.. not to mention the northern model. Hard to argue against SNE if there's solid proof it's going to happen again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I doubt we reach even 25 on Sunday based off 850 temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 To know one's surprised, Euro is a hit for SNE/NNE. It's between there and the Lakes...I'm traveling, screw this. Another blizzard if it is right. A nice closed low, very low temps and low that bombs out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
das Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Jeb's wish come true? An inch of rain on that snowpack would just increase its water content and turn it into concrete with the cold that swings thru afterwards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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