BristowWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think it looks slighter better than 0z0z? 6z was train wreck..so that sounds not horrible. On phone so can't see maps well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Better than 6z, worse than 0z, 2-4" Snow/Sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Considering the winter we've had, I'd take this couple of inches of front-end stuff and happy with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Wow, it would be over an inch of rain in sne where the deepest snowpack is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I can tell that everyone is about to cliff dive face first here, but isn't this opportunity a little different than recent failures? Been a while since we've had a 4 corners low come out no? And how do we go from a low near zero Monday to rain the next day?? The coldest air of winter so far won't just get scoured out that quickly (I believe anyway) That being said, I would think the all the models might struggle a few more days. I don't know. I'll leave that to my experts on here of course. I'm far from giving up. Friday might be that day, but I'm still in for the moment. Carry on my good peeps. Heck I went from a 6 low to a 37 high on same day earlier this year with rain just before sundown. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Meh... wish that H would get here faster I think the problem is the short wave in Canada that wants to phase with the southern system....don't recall that being there earlier or was further north. Move it east faster and things improve some more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Light snow to heavy rain. Better than 6z but not jumping for joy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Light snow to heavy rain. Better than 6z but not jumping for joy. frankly, I figured it was going to be a Chicago snow storm this run after 6z it may still be if that short wave in Canada comes a little further south or is any stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just eyeballing it looks like a 6 hr period of frozen before the switch happens near the cities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 interesting thoughts by HM pretty convincing argument about FEB and March https://twitter.com/antmasiello Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Snow to sleet. Not horrible. looks horrible. 2m jumps in 1 panel like 10 degrees Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 frankly, I figured it was going to be a Chicago snow storm this run after 6z it may still be if that short wave in Canada comes a little further south or is any stronger It was such a shift out west from 6z with the vort that I'm not sure how meaningful the run is. Something that digs that deep that far west with no blocking could easily end up far west of us. The hp coming in over top of it pushed the initial track far enough south to get us some frozen on the front. Big storm on this run either way. Probably not a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 definitely an interesting run and probably wrong lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Light snow to heavy rain. Better than 6z but not jumping for joy. I do not see how this is "better" than either 06Z or 00Z. Yeah, we get some stuff early on, but as the low approaches and goes right over us, we get deluged with cold rain. 06Z had less precip, 00Z had a similar heavy amount to 12Z, but a similar outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 For comparison. 12z at 138 on top and 6z at 144 on the bottom. Slight difference. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It's pretty sad when we're getting excited about a storm and pattern that will take the low to our west. At my house it probalbuy gives a whopping inch. The bad thing is with that much amplitude and with the upper level ridge so far west, it would be real easy for the low to track farther north and west than the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 It's pretty sad when we're getting excited about a storm and pattern that will take the low to our west. At my house it probalbuy gives a whopping inch. The bad thing is with that much amplitude and with the upper level ridge so far west, it would be real easy for the low to track farther north and west than the GFS is showing. northern stream seemingly comes out of no where and snatches it up....literally northern stream has been king so far and as long as there's not blocking, nothing can stop it, assuming, of course, the trend over the last 24 hrs. holds I guess we just need a weak wave out of the west and that coming north won't kill us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It's pretty sad when we're getting excited about a storm and pattern that will take the low to our west. At my house it probalbuy gives a whopping inch. The bad thing is with that much amplitude and with the upper level ridge so far west, it would be real easy for the low to track farther north and west than the GFS is showing. Yea, no doubt. When I saw the dig to phoenix I was less than enthused and knew the run wasn't going to be full of high 5's. Safe to say it's going to change quite a bit going forward but the end result may be the same regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GGEM looks decent though 138.. confluence and HP look to hold off N movement for now I think 144 on B and W -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/595_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Wow, it would be over an inch of rain in sne where the deepest snowpack is. Jeb's wish come true? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GGEM looks good for clipper and next week haha looks like a big front end dump Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GGEM would be snow to sleet to ice. 850's running I95 @ 156 but somewhere around .3-.4 has fallen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yoda--GGEM at 84 looks good .20 qpf from clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GGEM looks good for clipper and next week haha looks like a big front end dump It's due to get something right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GGEM would be snow to sleet to ice. 850's running I95 @ 156 but somewhere around .3-.4 has fallen. its more than that....but an interesting look. Definitely not an all snow event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It's due to get something right not really. Its been wrong for like 11 years straight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yoda--GGEM at 84 looks good .20 qpf from clipper If you are in MD yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GGEM would be snow to sleet to ice. 850's running I95 @ 156 but somewhere around .3-.4 has fallen. we just need to shut up...take this run and head for the hills Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This looks similar to Super Bowl Sunday. Maybe this one trends to us instead of away from us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 we just need to shut up...take this run and head for the hills I'd hit that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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