Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That Great Lakes low has just been the kick in the nuts this winter. It has been perfectly timed with each event to screw us. Indeed it has. Compare the 12Z GFS from yesterday (the really good run for us) to today's 06Z at the surface, for instance, valid at 00Z Tuesday (138h at 06Z, 159h for yesterday's 12Z). In yesterday's 12Z, that low was notably farther north and the high pressure to the east was better placed, holding in stronger. In today's 06Z, that low is closer to the Lakes (or there's an extension with a secondary center there), while the high has already been pushed offshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I was just looking at that now this morning. The 06Z GFS, in my opinion, looked almost worse than 00Z in that the low is inching even farther north and we lose the cold air even a bit faster (or so it appeared). Just can't catch the slightest break it seems, and if this continues, it'll start looking very similar to what happened at the beginning of the month (already is, to some degree). Hopefully not. However, that trailing wave next Thursday that you allude to is a new wrinkle. Not sure how realistic that is. It ends up too far south for us, but kind of interesting. Yeah 6z is worse. There is no real FRONT END THUMP (most overused and annoying phrase in these threads) until you get into PA and NJ. As far as the trailing wave(if real), looks like that one would certainly be hard pressed to evolve to a cutter, so then it has to end up a slider and miss to the south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Well at least we probably won't have to start a thread on this storm - our fate is being sealed relatively early. Once the storms get modeled north this year, you can kiss them goodbye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah 6z is worse. There is no real FRONT END THUMP (most overused and annoying phrase in these threads) until you get into PA and NJ. As far as the trailing wave(if real), looks like that one would certainly be hard pressed to evolve to a cutter, so then it has to end up a slider and miss to the south I don't know how often a true "front end thump" really occurs here, but offhand I can only think of the event last February (maybe because that's the most recent). I'm sure there were other times, just not sure how often it happens in reality. Well, if this thing is going to be a huge "PHAIL!!" then I'd rather have us be out of the game now than have that happen within 3-4 days of the event. Not giving up yet, but starting to look like a sequel or a re-run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I don't know how often a true "front end thump" really occurs here, but offhand I can only think of the event last February (maybe because that's the most recent). I'm sure there were other times, just not sure how often it happens in reality. Well, if this thing is going to be a huge "PHAIL!!" then I'd rather have us be out of the game now than have that happen within 3-4 days of the event. Not giving up yet, but starting to look like a sequel or a re-run. It doesn't occur often east of I-95, esp with no block. Cold air scours out pretty quick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It doesn't occur often east of I-95, esp with no block. Cold air scours out pretty quick. To add to that, it nearly never happens without a high somewhere to our north to provide some cold air damning. With no high there, the southerly winds take over and the cold air disappears amazingly quick. Our typical winters actually do feature several snow to ice to rain type events when lows cut west and we have a high pressure system locked into the northeast, but in our current pattern, Highs just slide east like they are in a NASCAR race and we have nothing to stop the southerly wind component at the surface and upper levels. I can't remember the last time we had a textbook cold air damming event, but they used to be relatively frequent, particularly in the month of January back in the 1980s and 1990s, but perhaps our climo has changed a bit since then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I can tell that everyone is about to cliff dive face first here, but isn't this opportunity a little different than recent failures? Been a while since we've had a 4 corners low come out no? And how do we go from a low near zero Monday to rain the next day?? The coldest air of winter so far won't just get scoured out that quickly (I believe anyway) That being said, I would think the all the models might struggle a few more days. I don't know. I'll leave that to my experts on here of course. I'm far from giving up. Friday might be that day, but I'm still in for the moment. Carry on my good peeps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 To add to that, it nearly never happens without a high somewhere to our north to provide some cold air damning. With no high there, the southerly winds take over and the cold air disappears amazingly quick. Our typical winters actually do feature several snow to ice to rain type events when lows cut west and we have a high pressure system locked into the northeast, but in our current pattern, Highs just slide east like they are in a NASCAR race and we have nothing to stop the southerly wind component at the surface and upper levels. I can't remember the last time we had a textbook cold air damming event, but they used to be relatively frequent, particularly in the month of January back in the 1980s and 1990s, but perhaps our climo has changed a bit since then. good post. Our thumps typically have damming and this pattern doesn't offer much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Looks like I picked the wrong horse to hitch my wagon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I can tell that everyone is about to cliff dive face first here, but isn't this opportunity a little different than recent failures? Been a while since we've had a 4 corners low come out no? And how do we go from a low near zero Monday to rain the next day?? The coldest air of winter so far won't just get scoured out that quickly (I believe anyway) That being said, I would think the all the models might struggle a few more days. I don't know. I'll leave that to my experts on here of course. I'm far from giving up. Friday might be that day, but I'm still in for the moment. Carry on my good peeps. Trends in the models are for that low to amplify/trough retrogrades/ridge builds out in front. Seen this all winter. Doesn't matter how cold that air mass is if its on the move. I know I wouldn't be banking on the CMC over the Euro/GFS at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 To add to that, it nearly never happens without a high somewhere to our north to provide some cold air damning. With no high there, the southerly winds take over and the cold air disappears amazingly quick. Our typical winters actually do feature several snow to ice to rain type events when lows cut west and we have a high pressure system locked into the northeast, but in our current pattern, Highs just slide east like they are in a NASCAR race and we have nothing to stop the southerly wind component at the surface and upper levels. I can't remember the last time we had a textbook cold air damming event, but they used to be relatively frequent, particularly in the month of January back in the 1980s and 1990s, but perhaps our climo has changed a bit since then. Agreed. Thats why I said with no blocking.....we dont often see a legit High and CAD with the Atlantic as crappy as it is. Any high in place would tend to be sliding east so it comes down to pure timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 good post. Our thumps typically have damming and this pattern doesn't offer much. Very true. Last year we also had a lack of blocking. However, in that February event last year I think (if I'm recalling correctly here!) we managed transient blocking/damming with a very cold air mass in place. Thus we scored well on the front end, then got drizzle/light rain, and then the ULL snows at the end. That was perhaps the best "front end" I've seen in my time here. The February 2007 (Valentine's Day) storm occurred with good blocking. We got pretty much all sleet and ice from that in metro DC (areas to the north and west did get decent snow I recall). But it never flipped to rain, and I was living in the Capitol Hill area at the time. It was all sleet there, about 3" worth...we did get sort of dry-slotted, before it got very cold again. I think areas just east of DC got more ice than sleet, it was pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Agreed. Thats why I said with no blocking.....we dont often see a legit High and CAD with the Atlantic as crappy as it is. Any high in place would tend to be sliding east so it comes down to pure timing. Yup. Pure timing with some kind of transient 50/50, sort of how we did it last year. Not easy to do most of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Very true. Last year we also had a lack of blocking. However, in that February event last year I think (if I'm recalling correctly here!) we managed transient blocking/damming with a very cold air mass in place. Thus we scored well on the front end, then got drizzle/light rain, and then the ULL snows at the end. That was perhaps the best "front end" I've seen in my time here. The February 2007 (Valentine's Day) storm occurred with good blocking. We got pretty much all sleet and ice from that in metro DC (areas to the north and west did get decent snow I recall). But it never flipped to rain, and I was living in the Capitol Hill area at the time. It was all sleet there, about 3" worth...we did get sort of dry-slotted, before it got very cold again. I think areas just east of DC got more ice than sleet, it was pretty bad. That event kinda sucked here. Went from heavy snow to heavy rain. Very rapid flip. Not what I would consider a legit cold air damming event. Normally I would hold the cold longer at the surface and have sleet/zr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Trends in the models are for that low to amplify/trough retrogrades/ridge builds out in front. Seen this all winter. Doesn't matter how cold that air mass is if its on the move. I know I wouldn't be banking on the CMC over the Euro/GFS at this point. I hear you. Maybe for once trends will change for the better and not worse? Wishful thinking right. We're still a ways out from towel tossing. I have to believe we get ours at some point... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I can tell that everyone is about to cliff dive face first here, but isn't this opportunity a little different than recent failures? Been a while since we've had a 4 corners low come out no? And how do we go from a low near zero Monday to rain the next day?? The coldest air of winter so far won't just get scoured out that quickly (I believe anyway) That being said, I would think the all the models might struggle a few more days. I don't know. I'll leave that to my experts on here of course. I'm far from giving up. Friday might be that day, but I'm still in for the moment. Carry on my good peeps. Don't remember the date, but in '94 we had a morning low in the single digits and by about 9 AM it was raining with a temp of 19F. Bad freezing rain event for a time, but temps were well above freezing by early afternoon. The degree of cold hardly matters if there is not some mechanism to keep it in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Don't remember the date, but in '94 we had a morning low in the single digits and by about 9 AM it was raining with a temp of 19F. Bad freezing rain event for a time, but temps were well above freezing by early afternoon. The degree of cold hardly matters if there is not some mechanism to keep it in place. January 17th or January 28th. Also 1999 January 3rd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 January 17th or January 28th. Also 1999 January 3rd. Thanks. Good searching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I can still see 2-3 inchEd from the event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just looked at last nights euro ensembles. It's weird how many south tracks there are. It won't show up on the low location plot because the weaker solutions don't have defined low pressure. As we thought, any strong storm would cut. There are a lot of weaker further south tracks. Even a cluster of misses to the south. Odd. I expected a little more consensus. ETA: a lot had a cold hp to the north (around 1030 or so) that isn't showing up at all on op guidance. I don't think a west/wet track is a lock yet. Favored but not a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just looked at last nights euro ensembles. It's weird how many south tracks there are. It won't show up on the low location plot because the weaker solutions don't have defined low pressure. As we thought, any strong storm would cut. There are a lot of weaker further south tracks. Even a cluster of misses to the south. Odd. I expected a little more consensus. ETA: a lot had a cold hp to the north (around 1030 or so) that isn't showing up at all on op guidance. I don't think a west/wet track is a lock yet. Favored but not a lock. For this weekend or early next week? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 For this weekend or early next week? Next week. Spread was really big on strength and track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just looked at last nights euro ensembles. It's weird how many south tracks there are. It won't show up on the low location plot because the weaker solutions don't have defined low pressure. As we thought, any strong storm would cut. There are a lot of weaker further south tracks. Even a cluster of misses to the south. Odd. I expected a little more consensus. ETA: a lot had a cold hp to the north (around 1030 or so) that isn't showing up at all on op guidance. I don't think a west/wet track is a lock yet. Favored but not a lock. Ops have a high it just slips offshore early. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Ops have a high it just slips offshore early. And would fit the entire winter to a tee. haha GFS making slight adjustments... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Meh... wish that H would get here faster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 And would fit the entire winter to a tee. haha GFS making slight adjustments... Looks like about the same result. Worth eying.. even without a great CAD setup we know that stuff doesn't scour super quick usually. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 And would fit the entire winter to a tee. haha GFS making slight adjustments... I think it looks slighter better than 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Not a lot of agreement between the 00z GEFS and Canadian ensembles either. Canadian ensembles had more eastern / southern tracks, few west tracks. In both cases the op was to the east of the control run, which I think is a good sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Snow to sleet. Not horrible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think it looks slighter better than 0z Large difference @ h5. Result may be the same but it's a big difference. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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