mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 system from the SW after the clipper looks to cut Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Regardless of what the gfs shows, it's not a way we get snow here. It's possible but very improbable. It misses SNE though to there's that. I'd add about 10C to the 850s as well. Fun run until the followup mid 980 passing over pit later on. That's probably more believable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Plenty of time for that storm to flatten out to hit SNE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I might not have to chase this weekend if we are getting a 3-4" clipper... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Color scale defeated Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 GFS LR is depressing, we get epic cold in the mid-range, no blocking, STJ finally wakes up, and boom we rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 the one after the PIT storm is the cold one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Color scale defeated That's like last week day after tomorrow cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 GFS LR is depressing, we get epic cold in the mid-range, no blocking, STJ finally wakes up, and boom we rain. you need to wait for the whole run then again Highzenberg is depressed, the worm has turned! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 That's like last week day after tomorrow cold. I still don't really trust the GFS but we'll see. If it was close it would be something. Bumpy ride coming up the coast Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 you need to wait for the whole run then again Highzenberg is depressed, the worm has turned! over under on 5 days before you are back to saying winter sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 12z ukie has the same track as the gfs. I didn't look at the 12z stuff today until tonight. 12z ggem was weak sauce but still the same track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I might not have to chase this weekend if we are getting a 3-4" clipper... that would be like 90:1 ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 over under on 5 days before you are back to saying winter sucks. so far, it has we're all here to see/hope it ends up different Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 12z ukie has the same track as the gfs. I didn't look at the 12z stuff today until tonight. 12z ggem was weak sauce but still the same track. what event are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 what event are you talking about? 2/14-2/15 on the gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 what event are you talking about? Valentines day. GFS is a cold powder .20-.40. Inverted trough but the slp from the clipper jumps to central va and off the coast. Dropping down from detroit should raise some big flags though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Valentines day. GFS is a cold powder .20-.40. Inverted trough but the slp from the clipper jumps to central va and off the coast. Dropping down from detroit should raise some big flags though. moderate snow with daytime high of zero is a pretty good red flag to raise Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 Valentines day. GFS is a cold powder .20-.40. Inverted trough but the slp from the clipper jumps to central va and off the coast. Dropping down from detroit should raise some big flags though. any model that shows us getting snow this winter should raise flags when you come down to it lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 What does that translate to on the surface? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 GFS has a whole lot of action to our south after the 15th and it's cold for the most part something will hit eventually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 i think GGEM has a big snow for 17th 18th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 If I had to guess at surface temps on the 15th - I'd expect about 7 degrees for a low. Yawn. Not even any wind. Next. I can't see why that's even worth mentioning, pretty pedestrian cold. I could walk with a tshirt on in the weather that map shows with no problemo. Mid single numbers for a low temp is springlike in Feb. Now the cold up toward Scumston in Massachumpsetts, may be worth mentioning though. Now Jay Peak, I can find decent cold up there, I'd enjoy a leisurely jebwalk in their Siberian high conditions. Jay knows snow and they KNOW skiing, they were all raised Jay Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 i think GGEM has a big snow for 17th 18th Looks like it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 Day 6 Euro about the same spot as GFS http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 Day 6 Euro about the same spot as GFS http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=namer&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=sfc&va=slp&in=2&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest http://vortex.plymouth.edu/cgi-bin/gen_grbcalc2.cgi?re=us&id=&zoom=.6&ti=0≥=1280x1024&mo=ecmwf≤=500&va=hght&in=60&pl=cf&ft=6day&cu=latest&overlay=no&mo=≤=&va=&in=&pl=ln&ft=h24&cu=latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Euro is 1-2" for the Sat afternoon - Sun after midnight event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 High of 17 on Sunday....models lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 Euro is 1-2" for the Sat afternoon - Sun after midnight event I'll take it looks like it crushes NE unlike GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Complicated evolution but really nice to see h5 look like the gfs. @ 138 the vort is closed over michigan. Then some sort of weird double low. First one pops off the coast with a second low over PA. Very energetic in the upper levels. Not common for our area but interesting to see how it evolves. I mean, it's trending south as we move forward. That is NOT the seasonal trend we've been in the last couple weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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