WEATHER53 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm not following? I was saying we need a 100 mi shift. And since this run shows BOS with rain, we know it's gotta be wrong Yeah, I'm sorry I was off topic by asking it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Much better. Euroish Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GGEM clipper bomb was evident by hr 84..trailing vort consolidated more quickly as the trough axis swung into IA. Hopefully, the Euro follows suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 well I do believe we couldn't ask for more from the PNA, but the problems remain the Atlantic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Euroish But keeps the high in a much better spot than any model has shown it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 But keeps the high in a much better spot than any model has shown it. but the Euro had that flat look hence the jackpot in Raleigh but they will all change with every run, soooo... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GFS goes bonkers again with the cold from the 3rd arctic shot the end of next week Thurs./Fri. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 GGEM clipper bomb was evident by hr 84..trailing vort consolidated more quickly as the trough axis swung into IA. Hopefully, the Euro follows suit. All me need for a decent snowstorm from the clipper bomb is to get that 504dm low to track over central VA. Unfortunately, there is a better chance of Justin Beiber writing a good song, twice than that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 If that UKMET map is real, THAT'S what we need at 144. Combined that with the GFS vort and we'd have something special. BTW GGEM is looking sorta suppressed so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah, GGEM sort of goes stupid between 96-102...we get rain to snow? then snow on the next panel Looks like all snow in DC..actually has relatively decent instability ahead of the vortmax itself w/ the cold aloft & SSE surface flow ahead of the pressure surge. That would be a convective snow band.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 these are all you need to get an idea of our season top link is 276 hrs and bottom is the next panel at 288 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_276_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=1000_500_thick&fhr=276&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150211+00+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_288_1000_500_thick.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=1000_500_thick&fhr=288&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150211+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The fact that we have all of these scattershot model solutions is actually probably a positive thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 The fact that we have all of these scattershot model solutions is actually probably a positive thing. yeah, the pattern is at least getting loaded for action hopefully it's white action in oby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 hints at a negative NAO starting on the 288 hr. map http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_288_500_vort_ht.gif&model=gfs&area=namer&storm=&cycle=00¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=288&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150211+00+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah, SE folks should like the GGEM...southern slider Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah, SE folks should like the GGEM...southern slider perrrrrfect! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 wild end of the gfs run with a -NAO showing up fwiw and several shots at snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 well, not too many days ago one or both of the clippers on the gfs were to be Boston blizzards and now they get a modest amount out of the 2nd, so I do believe things have changed, if not in reality, in the modeling! I do agree this upcoming period past the blizzards (eta: lol, just caught that in re-read...clippers) looks different than what we've seen. Though some of the same issues remain and whenever there's a storm about warmer air is not far off. I know no one logical is expecting we're going to run into a bunch of all snow events but my suspicion for now is that we'll end up battling more warm air at storm time than hoped down the line. By the time the -NAO saves us (in 65 years..) it may just help prolong mostly cold rain events. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 wild end of the gfs run with a -NAO showing up fwiw and several shots at snow 384 looks good in the blocking 'hood except for the southern stream shutting off. but we might snowmageddon that gulf blob first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 384 looks good in the blocking 'hood except for the southern stream shutting off. but we might snowmageddon that gulf blob first. Wow dude. Ops being whacked outside of hr84 and discussing 384 in one evening... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Lol euro Next Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Lol euro Next Euro ens mean is a tad south/ colder. Still tracks towards Pittsburgh. The overall set up for this storm is pretty crappy, and looks really familiar. I would be surprised if it tracks underneath. Some could do well if the cold hangs tough, but it has the earmarks of a mix/slop deal unless you are pretty far NW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PCT_ATC Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So I suppose NWS is a little slow at updating their NAO stats page. They arent showing a -NAO at all until it goes maybe neutral the first of March. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/nao.sprd2.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 WOW @ the 9-10 day range of the 6z GFS, Front end thump still in the cards for next Tuesday, but both the ensembles and the OP of the GFS have the threat for next Thursday, winter isn't dead yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The trailing vort on the 6z GFS really comes into it's own and crushes North Carolina. That's good because the "seasonal trend" say's it will come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 if last night's model runs generally were to come to fruition, it's clear that not much has changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 if last night's model runs generally were to come to fruition, it's clear that not much has changed We need blocking, and we aren't likely to get it. Last year we got lucky, and the Pacific pattern was incredible. But we don't do well with favorable storm tracks without cooperation from the AO/NAO unless timing is near perfect. This winter is a perfect illustration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That Great Lakes low has just been the kick in the nuts this winter. It has been perfectly timed with each event to screw us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 That Great Lakes low has just been the kick in the nuts this winter. It has been perfectly timed with each event to screw us. Yeah and I think that is mostly a symptom of having a +NAO. The tendency is for lower pressure over the GL with high pressure too far east and on the move. With a west-based block, we can get a 50-50 low trapped underneath and higher pressure to our N/NW, instead of crappy lows all the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 WOW @ the 9-10 day range of the 6z GFS, Front end thump still in the cards for next Tuesday, but both the ensembles and the OP of the GFS have the threat for next Thursday, winter isn't dead yet. I was just looking at that now this morning. The 06Z GFS, in my opinion, looked almost worse than 00Z in that the low is inching even farther north and we lose the cold air even a bit faster (or so it appeared). Just can't catch the slightest break it seems, and if this continues, it'll start looking very similar to what happened at the beginning of the month (already is, to some degree). Hopefully not. However, that trailing wave next Thursday that you allude to is a new wrinkle. Not sure how realistic that is. It ends up too far south for us, but kind of interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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