Ian Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I don't like the higher resolution personally. If I can get the larger details right usually I can figure out the meso scale stuff without needing a model that can show it. I'd rather a consistent tool I am familiar with. Too bad NOAA doesn't have any money or they could keep running old models. Imagine how fun that would be here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Only hope this run is that the S/W cuts off over the southwest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Too bad NOAA doesn't have any money or they could keep running old models. Imagine how fun that would be here. Too fine a grid I think also a problem. Back off and look at it a bit instead of microscoping it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Anyway...GFS has some precip pointing our way at 147...can't see that pesky GL low anymore so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Anyway...GFS has some precip pointing our way at 147...can't see that pesky GL low anymore so far not as fast as 18z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Anyway...GFS has some precip pointing our way at 147...can't see that pesky GL low anymore so far SE crew seem to like it so far Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Anyway...GFS has some precip pointing our way at 147...can't see that pesky GL low anymore so far also, GL low is much further north, but it's there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 not as fast as 18z Surface cold wedge is pretty evident...light snow at 156, nothing extraordinary yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Barely hanging on to snow at 162...cold surface line moved up north pretty quick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Surface cold wedge is pretty evident...light snow at 156, nothing extraordinary yet. my friend, this year light snow at DCA is extraordinary! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Run is better @ h5 overall than 18z. Difference with timing and features but not a Lucy in the grand scheme. Same problems still exist. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Rain at 165, low is going west. ETA: icing for the far n and w burbs until at least 171 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Rain at 165, low is going west. so that's still 9 hours of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 7/8 hours at 0.5"ph average=3-4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Nice little HGR ice storm after the snow, but even they go over at 174 looks like. Front end snow still good. Still within the range where that low could shift east 100 miles or so Shows rain for BOS, so pretty good shot this run is too far west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Nice little HGR ice storm after the snow, but even they go over at 174 looks like. Front end snow still good. Still within the range where that low could shift east 100 miles or so Shows rain for BOS, so pretty good shot this run is too far west. I guess the SE crew has been drinking tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Seasonal trends are real and front end thumps greater than backlash around here. We do front end fairly often on storms that are mostly frozen. I may be forgetting some but I haven't seen many that go from big thump front end to cutoff or light rain or even heavy rain. Maybe I just blocked them out. I dunno. I liked the midweek before it looked better midday now I'm not sure lol. It's a good way to screw stuff up.. the sfc is all wrong.. the cold in front helps but thoughts of the 'seasonal trend' will loom.. snow band north while 850s warm, then something that's not a snow dump. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Too fine a grid I think also a problem. Back off and look at it a bit instead of microscoping it. On that level I think many are giving things much more credence than they deserve. The hi res maps of close up regions are abused all the time.. showing 2m temps of the gfs at d6-8 is pretty silly in most cases. I think you can still "de res" a run if you look at the basics and know what those basics do, then add in any typical biases of the models -- to get a better forecast than just a model barf. The real question may be is will that form of forecasting survive.. I am not sure it will based on the current trajectory. We need Wes to offer free classes or something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It does seem that both these clipper bombs are not going to be what they could have been.. more progressive, as probably could have been anticipated given some of the silly early looks. Then rain for Boston on the next one? Maybe the worm has turned on that part at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 It does seem that both these clipper bombs are not going to be what they could have been.. more progressive, as probably could have been anticipated given some of the silly early looks. Then rain for Boston on the next one? Maybe the worm has turned on that part at least. well, not too many days ago one or both of the clippers on the gfs were to be Boston blizzards and now they get a modest amount out of the 2nd, so I do believe things have changed, if not in reality, in the modeling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 This isn't over yet. Low was a bit further south and the whole system more juiced. Many runs to go Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Speaking of clipper bombs, holy GGEM @ hr 96. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Crappy high position. Crappy lakes low and crappy PV in central Canada. Only thing this storm has going for it is it starts cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Nice little HGR ice storm after the snow, but even they go over at 174 looks like. Front end snow still good. Still within the range where that low could shift east 100 miles or so Shows rain for BOS, so pretty good shot this run is too far west. So the average snow depth within 100 miles of Boston is 2 feet? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah, GGEM sort of goes stupid between 96-102...we get rain to snow? then snow on the next panel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 So the average snow depth within 100 miles of Boston is 2 feet? I'm not following? I was saying we need a 100 mi shift. And since this run shows BOS with rain, we know it's gotta be wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Conway7305 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Low is moves more west up the Apps. We seriously need a negative NAO to hold cold better down south into mid atlantic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yeah, GGEM sort of goes stupid between 96-102...we get rain to snow? then snow on the next panel GEM has been terrible outside of a day or 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 These front end thumpers in real cold air masses dump 3-4" then drizzle themselves for rest of event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Much better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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