Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Still OK for a bit to start but also way warmer. It's ok but if the low is going to take that track I would like to see a bigger surge of waa precip out in front. The weaker vort wasn't a great thing to see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Still OK for a bit to start but also way warmer. As long as euro is still bullseying raleigh..we're good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 18z GFS is a snow thump 9z to 15z Tuesday, then over to light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 It's ok but if the low is going to take that track I would like to see a bigger surge of waa precip out in front. The weaker vort wasn't a great thing to see. yeah could be.. not sold a strong low will be a good thing with no high but who knows. im tempted to already assume we'll get screwed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 As long as euro is still bullseying raleigh..we're good we're never good lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 As long as euro is still bullseying raleigh..we're good Ensemble mean track is very similar to the gfs. I see a raleigh bullseye one of the least likely scenarios. There's nothing to keep the low from going west except from well timed confluence from the low departing the martimes. There's no high pressure in a classic spot either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Our entire winter hinges on a 6 hour snow burst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Our entire winter hinges on a 6 hour snow burst Which will be gone at 0z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 And once again, the $#%% gl low shows up Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The best guess if we get an event next week is that it will go west and we will need to get front-ended. Positives - -Air mass will be semi-stale but it is a monster air mass and high pressure will be in place within a day or less of the storm -We're still in a good climo period when we don't need everything to be right to snow. -we will have some semblance of a 50-50 low and we have a southeast trough. - we have an epic EPO ridge and a +PNA Negatives - - Awful +NAO - Departing high with low pressure to our north and west - Positively tilted progressive trough - Not a cohesive consolidated 500mb or surface reflection I think the most likely top end scenario is a thump that mostly ends before we warm. We can get 4"+ out of that scenario. Downside is we shear or warm ahead of the precip or the frontrunning complex is wimpy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well said Matt. My thoughts exactly. The whole time this threat has been on radar there has never been good hp to the north. That one fact alone is a good reason to not expect all snow if we get snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Problem with the front end thump is it's kind of a unicorn here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well said Matt. My thoughts exactly. The whole time this threat has been on radar there has never been good hp to the north. That one fact alone is a good reason to not expect all snow if we get snow. we just need to thump..this is a big SD air mass...chances are we'll be cold enough to be frozen at the beginning no matter what the scenario as long as we get precip in here in advance..we will need that.,..especially if it redevelops and we get dryslotted... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Problem with the front end thump is it's kind of a unicorn here. It is a fairly common way we get snow when we get snow. Just not this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The best guess if we get an event next week is that it will go west and we will need to get front-ended. Positives - -Air mass will be semi-stale but it is a monster air mass and high pressure will be in place within a day or less of the storm -We're still in a good climo period when we don't need everything to be right to snow. -we will have some semblance of a 50-50 low and we have a southeast trough. - we have an epic EPO ridge and a +PNA Negatives - - Awful +NAO - Departing high with low pressure to our north and west - Positively tilted progressive trough - Not a cohesive consolidated 500mb or surface reflection I think the most likely top end scenario is a thump that mostly ends before we warm. We can get 4"+ out of that scenario. Downside is we shear or warm ahead of the precip or the frontrunning complex is wimpy. I agree, the ridge retrogrades enough the the low is likely to go to our north but the air mass is the coldest of the season so we could get front ended. We need trough not to get too amped or the front end will end up in PA. That's always a worry with these kinds of systems. I think I'd rather we shear that really amp up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 It is a fairly common way we get snow when we get snow. Just not this year. Some snow maybe.. a lot of snow.. I dunno. I can't recall a lot of storms that were good front end thump then drizzle. A few. I still would be cautious about wanting a big storm.. it's way out there. It could be all rain still. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Some snow maybe.. a lot of snow.. I dunno. I can't recall a lot of storms that were good front end thump then drizzle. A few. I still would be cautious about wanting a big storm.. it's way out there. It could be all rain still. I am not seeing a big storm. I think a reasonable top end scenario is front end, 4"+. But that would be top end. I think complete failure or something minor is just as or more likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I am not seeing a big storm. I think a reasonable top end scenario is front end, 4"+. But that would be top end. I think complete failure or something minor is just as or more likely.Right well big maybe wrong word. More along lines of Wes comment. We've chased a heftier thump via a stronger low before (recently) and ended up not having it work well but just shifting everything north. I'd probably root for the weak/south for now too just given our history of late and such. Then again we've been burned so much from this range it might not ecen look like what we see. We just can't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The 18z members have a mostly positive look, IMO. A couple of not so good ones, most keep us in the game. A pretty strong storm, precip wise, looks like a given...at least for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 It is a fairly common way we get snow when we get snow. Just not this year. As you have said often, there is no "we" in this subforum. Front end thumps usually suck for east of I-95. Once in a while it works. N&W its a different story. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 As you have said often, there is no "we" in this subforum. Front end thumps usually suck for east of I-95. Once in a while it works. N&W its a different story.Exactly, that is why i never comment when Ian and Matt say that. With some of these storms its like we live in different worlds even though we are only 60 miles apart. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I was comparing 12z to 18z since I never actually saw 12z...huge differences with everything...12z would have been a nice cold hit. 18z doesn't even look like the same threat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 i worry more about lack of precip/dryslotting than anything with this event Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It's going to take another 10" of snow to really change my opinion of this winter to neutral and 20" before I start liking it. Any car-topper to rain events will just make it worse. The fact that I even track them makes me wonder if this is an addiction rather than a hobby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Meanwhile...Euro text output has all three airports with 2m temps of 3 at 12Z Monday and a nw wind in the teens.I'm sure it will moderate as it nears but that's cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 i worry more about lack of precip/dryslotting than anything with this event I'm worried about everything on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Honestly, looking at 500mb this should come much farther N than shown...still boggled my mind why it was so S...I'd feel good in your location right now.You were on to something with this idea...still 7 days out so changes will be observed... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm worried about everything on this one Why though? You said it yourself there is nothing to keep this from cutting and we already went from pretty good on 12z to almost game over on 18z. Weaker and strung out we lose front end dump. Strong cuts west. Departing high and gl low. Hard to see a win scenario but lesser degrees of losing I guess. What kind of set up does the best ensemble member show I wonder. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 11, 2015 Author Share Posted February 11, 2015 I'm worried about everything on this one as long as the cold that is advertised shows up, I believe we have a decent shot at a mod. event (4" +/-) I think the first warning sign of potential failure will be if the cold that is currently modeled is noticeably weaker, but we won't know that until Sunday if the cold is weaker, then it will almost certainly travel to our north and without deep cold, we'll be lucky to see an hour of snow on the front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLPressure Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 as long as the cold that is advertised shows up, I believe we have a decent shot at a mod. event (4" +/-) I think the first warning sign of potential failure will be if the cold that is currently modeled is noticeably weaker, but we won't know that until Sunday if the cold is weaker, then it will almost certainly travel to our north and without deep cold, we'll be lucky to see an hour of snow on the front end Just a quick glance at some of the ensemble members gives one pause. The scenario of a west track is very real and the seasonal trend with the models is that the modeled cold air 7 days in advance is too deep. So figure on some temperature moderation and a west track and things don't look too good for the 4+ inches scenario. One would think a more wound up low would produce more QPF on the front end, but that also means more west which usually equals more warm air. Not feeling too good on this at the moment. There are scenarios where this could work, but has been mentioned many times, it's 7 days away. It WILL change. Fingers crossed for the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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