ravensrule Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This isn't directed straight at you, as "it's cold, so the ratios will be good" does seem to be a pretty common thought. Others who know way more that I do have addressed this before. Ratios are not about surface temps - they're about temps in the snow growth zone. It's completely plausible to be incredibly cold at the surface but have sh**ty ratios. I understand that, but i was referring to the 850 temps which are very cold as well. Either way the storm is a week away so it was silly of me to even mention ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Euro ensembles are pretty impressive. Not that a big storm is a lock but that almost every west track has very cold air wedged all the way down to GA. Some west tracks have the low surrounded by below freezing air. I haven't seen many scenarios like that before Bunch of good hits too but mixed as to be expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Euro ensembles are pretty impressive. Not that a big storm is a lock but that almost every west track has very cold air wedged all the way down to GA. Some west tracks have the low surrounded by below freezing air. I haven't seen many scenarios like that before Bunch of good hits too but mixed as to be expected. If it is still looking good Thursday night i say you start the threat thread. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If it is still looking good Thursday night i say you start the threat thread. Inside of 72 should be the rule. Especially with this setup. I doubt we're going to see some pretty consolidated low track up from the deep south with model agreement. This one has the typical flags. We start threads too early. D3.5 is still well within lucy range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This isn't directed straight at you, as "it's cold, so the ratios will be good" does seem to be a pretty common thought. Others who know way more that I do have addressed this before. Ratios are not about surface temps - they're about temps in the snow growth zone. It's completely plausible to be incredibly cold at the surface but have sh**ty ratios. More than just that even. Have this bookmarked and its a good read. The author is a pretty solid poster on here http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/snow2a/snow2a.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Inside of 72 should be the rule. Especially with this setup. I doubt we're going to see some pretty consolidated low track up from the deep south with model agreement. This one has the typical flags. We start threads too early. D3.5 is still well within lucy range. Well i hope you will be starting it Saturday morning then. We need your ju ju. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 To his credit Tenman knows way more about forecasting in this region than most people and he's a fairly straight shooter.. Even if he has a cold/snow bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 More than just that even. Have this bookmarked and its a good read. The author is a pretty solid poster on here http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/research/snow2a/snow2a.pdf Excellent read, thank you for posting that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well i hope you will be starting it Saturday morning then. We need your ju ju. If we get a couple solid runs thurs/fri then someone will surely beat me to it. And we run the risk of another disaster thread to toss on the rubbish pile. There's a group of euro ens members that have a second wave up from the south d9-10. If we get two storms in 1 week then I'm going to troll the despair thread with abandon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 If we get a couple solid runs thurs/fri then someone will surely beat me to it. And we run the risk of another disaster thread to toss on the rubbish pile. There's a group of euro ens members that have a second wave up from the south d9-10. If we get two storms in 1 week then I'm going to troll the despair thread with abandon. It's on both operationals, Euro and GFS, too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If we get a couple solid runs thurs/fri then someone will surely beat me to it. And we run the risk of another disaster thread to toss on the rubbish pile. There's a group of euro ens members that have a second wave up from the south d9-10. If we get two storms in 1 week then I'm going to troll the despair thread with abandon. Did you chuckle when you wrote that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Did you chuckle when you wrote that? Not nearly as much as I will at the cliff jumpers if it happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This storm looks different than what we have seen this winter. Is this due to the storm interacting with the southern jet stream? Will that stop it from going North? Kinda and No Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi 1h1 hour ago Linkag :sudden drop of SOI starting 16th.same thing just before mid atlantic snowmegeddon 2010. Wrote extensively about it when it occurred Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Joe Bastardi@BigJoeBastardi 1h1 hour ago Linkag :sudden drop of SOI starting 16th.same thing just before mid atlantic snowmegeddon 2010. Wrote extensively about it when it occurred lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This winter has had more than its fair share of stupidity on all sides. I actually give props to the jumpers who stayed jumped. Plenty of jumpers who now think we're on the cusp of a last year repeat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 With all due respect, because you are one of the most knowledgeable and effective communicators of reliable information on this board, but virtually all of us have punted/jumped in some fashion this winter. Some have quit, some have just stopped getting emotionally invested. It's hard for people to hold onto their early thoughts on this winter when the pattern goes from bad for all (Dec) to decent for "us" (early Jan) to awful for anyone south of 40 N (last 3 or so weeks). To your credit--you noted that we don't do back to back +climo here well at all, which was something I took to heart. Personally, I've said that I thought we'd see more measurable, and the next week looks about as good as any other period--especially Tues, but unless we see a pretty dramatic turnaround (which could happen) I'm not sure how this winter is looked back upon with positive feelings or more pertinent to the conversation, how anyone couldn't understand the more colorful jumping when the contrast between the haves and have nots is so bright . Anyway, it's Feb. One week at a time I guess. I like that we have a good signal for cold air swinging in, and that it looks to be in place early next week. The simpler/colder the better, and that's all I'm hoping for on the models the next few days. The flags will be there regardless I imagine. I'm just having fun. If people can incessantly troll failure then I can certainly troll success if it happens. I've been doing this a long time. I've experienced every kind of winter you can have since joining eastern almost 10 years ago. It just doesn't get to me like it used to. I'll keep my eyes open until it's clear it's over sometime in March. Sometimes that comes really early, sometimes it teases, and then there was last year. I still enjoy the chase even though we've whiffed since mid Jan and will continue to do so until the game is over. I'd be more surprised if we blanked out the next month vs getting an "acceptable" storm. Acceptable is up to the individual. The funny thing is this winter is pretty normal for these parts. Not the funnest but normal nonetheless. The one thing I won't do is let a crappy winter cloud my vision so bad I can't enjoy chasing snow anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Not nearly as much as I will at the cliff jumpers if it happens. I hope you get the chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This winter has had more than its fair share of stupidity on all sides. I actually give props to the jumpers who stayed jumped. Plenty of jumpers who now think we're on the cusp of a last year repeat. Hey, when you got no money to lose, might as well roll the dice. Difference now is, if it fails...<shrugs shoulders> Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Someone better lock that storm thread down asap. That guy.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Euro/GFS/GGEM all have a storm impacting us at basically the exact same time. GEFS and Canadian ensembles have narrowed the spread on timing as well. The meteograms look as good as I've seen them all winter at this range. Rain is still a concern, but for now the balance is tipped towards snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Hey, when you got no money to lose, might as well roll the dice. Difference now is, if it fails...<shrugs shoulders> I've felt that way since the third week of Jan. Once I got past idea that we would get meaningful blocking this winter it became pretty easy to not stress much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This winter has had more than its fair share of stupidity on all sides. I actually give props to the jumpers who stayed jumped. Plenty of jumpers who now think we're on the cusp of a last year repeat. I'm not sure I ever jump...I mean I look at models daily, but I do get tired. Even in 2010 and last year, I started getting tired about this time. If it snows, fantastic. If it doesn't, I'm just closer to being outside more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Hey, when you got no money to lose, might as well roll the dice. Difference now is, if it fails...<shrugs shoulders> I don't really care that much either way.. the psyche of the forum is an interesting thing though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'm not sure I ever jump...I mean I look at models daily, but I do get tired. Even in 2010 and last year, I started getting tired about this time. If it snows, fantastic. If it doesn't, I'm just closer to being outside more. yeah basically. bring on the cold and rainy 40s! ;p Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 so a model can predict the origin location at a 5 day lead time when it's "pertinent" -- i never notice that logical switch in the source code I will give you an easy solution to your continued defense of the undefendable. It's called "need to know" How you would actually parameterize it all I will leave to you good and smart people. In the mid atlantic, in winter, we do not need to know ANY of the endless possibilities that May exists in days 5/10/15/20. It's a waste of time and money and does not work anyway. If there is a low pressure developing along the gulf, or a clipper diving out of North Dakota then zero in on the best and most accurate possible solutions for the 1-3 day. Then, you will have something valuable and reliable and might not find your undies getting in a bunch so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 18z definitely not as impressive with the vort in the west as 12z. And less confluence in the east as it gets organized. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 18z GFS hr 162 looks good 0.25+ QPF all snow, Sfc temps mid 20s, next panels might go over to mix/rain I assume. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 18z definitely not as impressive with the vort in the west as 12z. And less confluence in the east as it gets organized. Still OK for a bit to start but also way warmer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 18z definitely not as impressive with the vort in the west as 12z. And less confluence in the east as it gets organized.lol we canot ever get 2 good runs in a row. I'm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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