Heisy Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 yea..its garbage. .19 for JYO/ .25 for DCA. Not sure where you are pulling .4 from but nice try lol. Better than last night run though. Raleigh Durham is .68. Thats what we need Honestly, looking at 500mb this should come much farther N than shown...still boggled my mind why it was so S...I'd feel good in your location right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Honestly, looking at 500mb this should come much farther N than shown...still boggled my mind why it was so S...I'd feel good in your location right now. Take the difference between the GGEM and euro and you got the GFS. That would be a nice storm but honsetly...I am looking for a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Take the difference between the GGEM and euro and you got the GFS. That would be a nice storm but honsetly...I am looking for a HECS Yeah same, but this type of storm has no shot to deliver a HECS....Kind of has an overrunning feel to it though which sometimes can surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well this storm seems to solely rely on the antecdecent airmass to get it done. So it's totally dependent on the cold being as deep and cold as modeled. The cold shots haven't performed as well as modeled this year, and the cold we have had has been easily scoured out by west of apps tracks. I hope I'm wrong, but seasonal trend has been defeating the models at this range, so I'm leaning toward a track toward Cleveland that leaves us to hope for front end thump before taint type of scenario. As Zwytes said, "this ain't our first rodeo." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well this storm seems to solely rely on the antecdecent airmass to get it done. So it's totally dependent on the cold being as deep and cold as modeled. The cold shots haven't performed as well as modeled this year, and the cold we have had has been easily scoured out by west of apps tracks. I hope I'm wrong, but seasonal trend has been defeating the models at this range, so I'm leaning toward a track toward Cleveland that leaves us to hope for front end thump before taint type of scenario. As Zwytes said, "this ain't our first rodeo." Yeah, it seems that the EURO is banking on the antecedent airmass forcing the low underneath it, but like I just posted 10x about the 500mb configuration argues for a much farther N track than what it did. Kind of reminds of the storm bust we had week or so ago where we looked golden 3 days out but we all ignored the voriticty traveling N of us until every mode starting bumping the surface farther N. It is 7 days out so doesn't mean much, but this might be the last storm of the season to track so might as well go all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yeah, it seems that the EURO is banking on the antecedent airmass forcing the low underneath it, but like I just posted 10x about the 500mb configuration argues for a much farther N track than what it did. Kind of reminds of the storm bust we had week or so ago where we looked golden 3 days out but we all ignored the voriticty traveling N of us until every mode starting bumping the surface farther N. It is 7 days out so doesn't mean much, but this might be the last storm of the season to track so might as well go all in. So you're saying there's a chance this goes north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looking at the vort and pressure maps it makes sense. It's not an organized low until late. Flow is flat early on with a 1040 above it and a 1038 in front of it. We shouldn't parse details anyways. Euro/GFS/GGEM all have a storm impacting us at basically the exact same time. The flags are there. It's not a great setup. But there's a pretty deep/cold airmass in place as it approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 So you're saying there's a chance this goes north? I sense your sarcasm lol, can a meteorologist chime in and try explain to me why the low and 500mb look so unmatched on the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looking at the vort and pressure maps it makes sense. It's not an organized low until late. Flow is flat early on with a 1040 above it and a 1038 in front of it. We shouldn't parse details anyways. Euro/GFS/GGEM all have a storm impacting us at basically the exact same time. The flags are there. It's not a great setup. But there's a pretty deep/cold airmass in place as it approaches. Yeah I guess that fading HP in front of the low is the reason it is farther S, but we'll see...at least we got something to track. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Take the difference between the GGEM and euro and you got the GFS. That would be a nice storm but honsetly...I am looking for a HECS an areawide 4-8" snow. that's what we need. 6 hours of accumulating snow that sticks to every surface and causes closings and early dismissals. i want a snow that's terrible for making snowballs. pure powder or bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 yea..its garbage. .19 for JYO/ .25 for DCA. Not sure where you are pulling .4 from but nice try lol. Better than last night run though. Raleigh Durham is .68. Thats what we need I didn't have detailed maps dude. .2-.3 for the 95 corridor. .4-.50 eastern shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Temps overnight monday in the teens and highs tuesday in the low-mid 20's. 850's -7 to -10 during the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Tuesday does appear to be a low that early on is along TX/LA gulf area. This is the birthing ground for storms that do DC good. I am interested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Tuesday does appear to be a low that early on is along TX/LA gulf area. This is the birthing ground for storms that do DC good. I am interested. there you go trusting a model -- wonder if it's just conspiring to get you interested? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 so it's only 6.5 days away :-/ i'm in anyway. Time to start the Threat Thread...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 something brewing to our S/SW on the 10 day euro map too, not that different, generally speaking, to what the gfs is advertising in that time frame looks like we have a couple of legit shots (finally) in the medium and longer range to follow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leaking Gut Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This storm looks different than what we have seen this winter. Is this due to the storm interacting with the southern jet stream? Will that stop it from going North? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Goodness. Still chasing the two weeks away. The persistence of this illusion is astonishing. March does not do DC much good anyway, it snows, next day it's 45 and day after 55. 1993 did have the following day in the 20's but once every 20-25 years is not much to bank on. Already considerable modification in the cold shot this week and the Sunday one that is showing daytime highs in the teens simply will not happen.I'm not chasing anything really. I think I'm more bearish than most. Winters don't tend to turn on a dime at this pt in the season. We do have some biggest of after so and so but passing 2" is not that hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 something brewing to our S/SW on the 10 day euro map too, not that different, generally speaking, to what the gfs is advertising in that time frame looks like we have a couple of legit shots (finally) in the medium and longer range to follow We had legit shots in the med/long range... only to have them dashed 4-5 days out. My how we forget. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Any real phase is pretty late.. kinda just precip running into an old cold airmass.. kind of how some have assumed we might get snow out of this pattern. In the Feb 1-2 screwjob thread, I posted this when it looked like a simple situation where moisture ran up and over an entrenched cold airmass, giving us a good dumping: F*** it. We don't have a raging +NAO, and it's southern stream energy running over a cold airmass. It's not complicated, so the models should have a decent handle on it. I mentioned it because it looked like the only truly promising setup for us in this pattern. Of course, the next day the models realized it would be a Miller B. I'll leave it at that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Goodness. Still chasing the two weeks away. The persistence of this illusion is astonishing. March does not do DC much good anyway, it snows, next day it's 45 and day after 55. 1993 did have the following day in the 20's but once every 20-25 years is not much to bank on. Already considerable modification in the cold shot this week and the Sunday one that is showing daytime highs in the teens simply will not happen. well, not to answer for Ian or anyone else, but it is only 2/10 and the threats we are talking about today are next week, mid FEB, and we have had plenty of decent mid-late FEB snows over the years, PDI and PDII certainly coming to mind first Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 We had legit shots in the med/long range... only to have them dashed 4-5 days out. My how we forget. it is fair to say that in any given winter, as the season progresses and the wavelengths change, what may be a lousy pattern early can morph into something more forgiving for us snow lovers the fact that it has been lousy so far doesn't rule out chances at small-moderate events, though admittedly a blockbuster seems "a bridge too far" the winter of 78/79 always sticks in my head because other than 3" around Thanksgiving 1978, it was cold and relatively snow less until the last few days of Jan/79 when we got our first decent event, followed by another 5" and then PDI to end a great 3 week period; 1/00-2/00 saw another flip that was of relatively short duration point being, we can't write off the season from having a couple minor-moderate events, though my frustrations last week made me say just that, just because it has stunk up to now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 there you go trusting a model -- wonder if it's just conspiring to get you interested? I do not trust the model. I do believe in the origin location of the storm. You well may worship, I glean pertinent bits of information. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 as for long term temps go, here's a link to the 12Z GEFS temp anomalies off Tropical Tidbits hit the arrow ahead button thru the end of the run (384 hrs).....the cold is unrelenting http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015021012&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=204 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I do not trust the model. I do believe in the origin location of the storm. You well may worship, I glean pertinent bits of information. so a model can predict the origin location at a 5 day lead time when it's "pertinent" -- i never notice that logical switch in the source code Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
infekshus Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 so a model can predict the origin location at a 5 day lead time when it's "pertinent" -- i never notice that logical switch in the source code he's trolling you, dude. he's only projecting pertinence by extrapolating the WV loop. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Goodness. Still chasing the two weeks away. The persistence of this illusion is astonishing. March does not do DC much good anyway, it snows, next day it's 45 and day after 55. 1993 did have the following day in the 20's but once every 20-25 years is not much to bank on. Already considerable modification in the cold shot this week and the Sunday one that is showing daytime highs in the teens simply will not happen. Both events in March last year were followed by very cold but for the most part you're right. it is fair to say that in any given winter, as the season progresses and the wavelengths change, what may be a lousy pattern early can morph into something more forgiving for us snow lovers the fact that it has been lousy so far doesn't rule out chances at small-moderate events, though admittedly a blockbuster seems "a bridge too far" the winter of 78/79 always sticks in my head because other than 3" around Thanksgiving 1978, it was cold and relatively snow less until the last few days of Jan/79 when we got our first decent event, followed by another 5" and then PDI to end a great 3 week period; 1/00-2/00 saw another flip that was of relatively short duration point being, we can't write off the season from having a couple minor-moderate events, though my frustrations last week made me say just that, just because it has stunk up to now Feb. 86 saw a flip mid month that led to a couple decent events and there was also a late flip to a better pattern in late Feb. 99 which led to a good first half of March. Also don't forget that 93 sucked as well until mid Feb. With 3 or 4 arctic fronts on the way it will snow again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 he's trolling you, dude. he's only projecting pertinence by extrapolating the WV loop. if only he didn't spend most of his time down at DCA yelling at the sensor for being out of place and too warm -- we could all learn a great deal from his extrapolating skillz.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Meh, not as good as it sounded in the NY subforum. ETA: but .4 with those temps should give us maybe close to 6". This isn't directed straight at you, as "it's cold, so the ratios will be good" does seem to be a pretty common thought. Others who know way more that I do have addressed this before. Ratios are not about surface temps - they're about temps in the snow growth zone. It's completely plausible to be incredibly cold at the surface but have sh**ty ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Both events in March last year were followed by very cold but for the most part you're right. Feb. 86 saw a flip mid month that led to a couple decent events and there was also a late flip to a better pattern in late Feb. 99 which led to a good first half of March. Also don't forget that 93 sucked as well until mid Feb. With 3 or 4 arctic fronts on the way it will snow again. first winter with my then, new bride I remember it well....fondly even after all these years of marriage lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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