Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Not sure the point... I know everyone here is rooting for a cold and snowy March lol. I've already pretty much given in to a crappy Mar/April. Pattern will break down for a while at some point I'm sure. Signs moving forward past next week have hinted at more risk of warm storms. My only point is the weeklies haven't been very useful for d15+ pattern forecasting. I stopped looking at them. I'm not really rooting for anything. I've stopped worrying about d10+ stuff. Whatever happens happens. A month or so of a +pna before a breakdown seems reasonable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PDIII Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 For the 2/8 storm the 120 hour mark is Thursday. If the gfs still shows a storm on Thursday then I am in. For now it is simply a window of opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I think most LR guidance is fairly useless on its own. I definitely wouldnt anticipate a prolonged early flower causing torch or anything. But the look is progressively less cold with time.. Could be pushed back. We need anomalous cold in about 2 weeks to have a lot of hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 There's a chance. It's "complicated" but at least energetic. All guidance has showed snow here on Sat but mostly T-2" kind of stuff. We need the closed ull to dig further south. Not sure how possible that is considering where it's coming from. I think we want the Thursday system to be as strong as possible to push heights lower on the east coast every little bit will help but it can still come up short as I know most know, if not expect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Here's a glass-half-full stat- there's only been two winters in BWI history that had a complete shutout of accumulating snow in both February AND March: the first was 2002, the second was... 1977 (this was a shock to me). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Here's a glass-half-full stat- there's only been two winters in BWI history that had a complete shutout of accumulating snow in both February AND March: the first was 2002, the second was... 1977 (this was a shock to me). Well good thing BWI already has accumulating snow in February so we don't have to worry about adding to that stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well good thing BWI already has accumulating snow in February so we don't have to worry about adding to that stat. oops- didn't realize they got 0.4 on the 1st. I missed that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Euro backing off on the amp/dig for the 14th clipper. Not looking too good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Euro backing off on the amp/dig for the 14th clipper. Not looking too good. I'll ride the gfs until the euro can prove deserving of the title again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'll ride the gfs until the euro can prove deserving of the title again Euro looks a lot like the gfs for next week... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Sounds like the Euro is a very nice hit for next Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 something is brewing to our SW on the day 7 euro map, but I'm at the end of the line on Plymouth doesn't look real strong but it's to our west sooooo....little help? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Euro looks a lot like the gfs for next week... Sounds like the Euro is a very nice hit for next Tuesday. beat my seconds...thx! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 something is brewing to our SW on the day 7 euro map, but I'm at the end of the line on Plymouth doesn't look real strong but it's to our west sooooo....little help? From the other forums sounds like a 4-8" type deal around here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 From the other forums sounds like a 4-8" type deal around here. Don't have the hires regional up yet but it's a very cold snow regardless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Don't have the hires regional up yet but it's a very cold snow regardless. I would take that and call it a winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Don't have the hires regional up yet but it's a very cold snow regardless. What's the time frame again, Mr. Robert C. Chill? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Here's a glass-half-full stat- there's only been two winters in BWI history that had a complete shutout of accumulating snow in both February AND March: the first was 2002, the second was... 1977 (this was a shock to me). the stinger with this winter is that we've had the cold around for most of it. i think it's easy to forget that we've had a number of winters where the highs are often in the mid to upper 40s. looking at the gfs is hilarious. an arctic front followed by a borderline rain/snowstorm a few days later. i don't remember a winter where the timing has been so off. it's 2/10 now...the clock is beginning to tick on our snow chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 What's the time frame again, Mr. Robert C. Chill? Seems like Tuesday morning until Tuesday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 From the other forums sounds like a 4-8" type deal around here. That would be a miracle. Think all eyes should be on the GFS until euro gets its mojo back, like Mitch said. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Heaviest strip in NC. Looks like .2-.4 for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Seems like Tuesday morning until Tuesday night. so it's only 6.5 days away :-/ i'm in anyway. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Don't have the hires regional up yet but it's a very cold snow regardless. 3-4" or so, I would guess....The track is fraught with red flags about how it might progress. Having an inverted trough to our west with no HP to our north...this isn't our 1st rodeo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Heaviest strip in NC. Looks like .2-.4 for us. Meh, not as good as it sounded in the NY subforum. ETA: but .4 with those temps should give us maybe close to 6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 3-4" or so, I would guess....The track is fraught with red flags about how it might progress. Having an inverted trough to our west with no HP to our north...this isn't our 1st rodeo. It's a weird one. We're benefiting from confluence and leftover really cold air keeping the track suppressed. H5 looks decent with the pass. I'm pretty happy with a south solution. It was a good 12z suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I don't understand what the EURO is showing, looking at the shortwave and the vorticity, it runs through Lake Erie, you'd think the low would be farther North, kind of reminds me of the storm 2 weeks ago that suddenly trended North. The low doesn't match the 500mb patter at all, can another met. chime in here and help me out on why it looks ridiculous to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Right around the start of the month. Argues for above much of the first half of Mar. May be wrong but I think there have been other hints of the same around then.. probably not long lasting if it happens given the persistent pattern overall. But even so any relaxation around then is badly timed if you want snow since avgs are getting pretty mild by Mar 1. Goodness. Still chasing the two weeks away. The persistence of this illusion is astonishing. March does not do DC much good anyway, it snows, next day it's 45 and day after 55. 1993 did have the following day in the 20's but once every 20-25 years is not much to bank on. Already considerable modification in the cold shot this week and the Sunday one that is showing daytime highs in the teens simply will not happen. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Bob look at 168 hours 500mb, now look at the surface, doesn't make sense to me. You'd think the low would run through Maryland but for some reason it is way farther S, I guess the remnants of the weekend storm locks in the cold for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Heaviest strip in NC. Looks like .2-.4 for us. yea..its garbage. .19 for JYO/ .25 for DCA. Not sure where you are pulling .4 from but nice try lol. Better than last night run though. Raleigh Durham is .68. Thats what we need Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 weatherbell euro comes out so slow. Cant wait to cancel in March Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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