Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Though interestingly the new weeklies do get us toward neutral but also change up the pattern to more troughy west and ridgy around us. I think we're almost done with snow threats of consequence to be honest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 To some degree though I don't think I'd want to see much stronger than now.. there's already not that huge of breathing room. I mean if you just want some snow followed by rain I guess it doesn't matter but there's no classic high as is etc. Of course it's so far out it's not really worth the analysis.. Right now (strength wise) on the gfs is just right. Agreed. There was a string of runs where h5 was compressed and running w-e. I don't want something torn up and narrow. It could stripe NC or PA and we wouldn't see a flake with that kind of look. Last night's euro was really flat. We'll see if there is a step towards the gfs shortly. Only 7 days to go...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 We've already seen a much more impressive split this year and plenty of perturbations. Every time has been temporary and reconsolidation shortly after. However, the last big split was partly responsible for the big cold shot in Jan with clippers that actually snowed on us. I wouldn't think too far ahead with the strat stuff. Nothing has broke favorable in the way of sustained blocking so it's best to assume it isn't happening this year until it's already happening. well, using the old JB and atmospheric memory, it sorta would fit that things go back to the way they were earlier but he was more with "what happens in DEC the winter will remember in FEB" so not exactly along his lines at least we hope it's not back to DEC, but the cold says otherwise for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 12z GGEM at 144 on the B and W -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/595_100.gif I like the look so far, we'll see if it accepts the GFS idea for mid next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Though interestingly the new weeklies do get us toward neutral but also change up the pattern to more troughy west and ridgy around us. I think we're almost done with snow threats of consequence to be honest. which week did it go troughy out west? fwiw, CFS2 ain't buying the trough out west idea for months to come http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html there's your cold spring if it's right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 12z GGEM at 144 on the B and W -- http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/595_100.gif I like the look so far, we'll see if it accepts the GFS idea for mid next week 1056 High coming down from western Canada....OOOooooK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 1056 High coming down from western Canada....OOOooooK GGEM does have a habit for bringing in too strong arctic H's... but 144 on GFS has a 1048 at same time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Going to be a race at 150 on the 12z GGEM ETA: 156 is decent... so far... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Best thing about the GFS is it pretty much shuts out Boston... at least through 186 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS wants to keep things interesting in the LR after next week too it seems with a clipper and another shot of juice from out west Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 That could be good for an area wide 2-3 Sorry, but I can't see anybody getting 2-3" from less than 1/10th of an inch of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If there's snow on the ground, then I'm all for vodka cold That's me Fozz. If there's snow, I actually enjoy the cold. If not, then bring the warmth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'm more curious with thoughts about the weekend. Any chance of accumulating snow? A real chance? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Starting to snow in DC it appears at 162 on 12z GGEM... still looks pretty good Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 which week did it go troughy out west? fwiw, CFS2 ain't buying the trough out west idea for months to come http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/htmls/usT2me3Mon.html there's your cold spring if it's right Right around the start of the month. Argues for above much of the first half of Mar. May be wrong but I think there have been other hints of the same around then.. probably not long lasting if it happens given the persistent pattern overall. But even so any relaxation around then is badly timed if you want snow since avgs are getting pretty mild by Mar 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 What the hell...I'm in for next week. What's there to lose? Like Bob said, even if she cuts west, we should get some front end with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Right around the start of the month. Argues for above much of the first half of Mar. May be wrong but I think there have been other hints of the same around then.. probably not long lasting if it happens given the persistent pattern overall. But even so any relaxation around then is badly timed if you want snow since avgs are getting pretty mild by Mar 1. HM tweeted he expects -nao by march continued cold, but i guess you probably know all this too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 What the hell...I'm in for next week. What's there to lose? Like Bob said, even if she cuts wet, we should get some front end with that look. Jumping back aboard the snow train I see... 168 is nice... 174 still ok... dancing with the 850 0c line though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GGEM looks like the Bob C scenario where it's strong and it's gonna flip..but we get decent front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Right around the start of the month. Argues for above much of the first half of Mar. May be wrong but I think there have been other hints of the same around then.. probably not long lasting if it happens given the persistent pattern overall. But even so any relaxation around then is badly timed if you want snow since avgs are getting pretty mild by Mar 1. In light the GEFS and CFS2, I think I'll believe the warm up when I see it. Though I would buy a warm up of 4-7 days before reverting back to cold. Euro has lost its luster in my eyes this winter. Though I never thought I'd say it, I believe the GFS and GEFS before the Euro and its ensembles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 HM tweeted he expects -nao by march continued cold, but i guess you probably know all this too March could end up cold and still have a poorly timed mild up. Euro weeklies don't have massive support but there have been hints here and there.. plus you often see at least a temporary flip anyway after seeing one thing for a while. Last March still haunts the thoughts of what March is here though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 GGEM looks like the Bob C scenario where it's strong and it's gonna flip..but we get decent front end It's coming and can't be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'm more curious with thoughts about the weekend. Any chance of accumulating snow? A real chance? There's a chance. It's "complicated" but at least energetic. All guidance has showed snow here on Sat but mostly T-2" kind of stuff. We need the closed ull to dig further south. Not sure how possible that is considering where it's coming from. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Right around the start of the month. Argues for above much of the first half of Mar. May be wrong but I think there have been other hints of the same around then.. probably not long lasting if it happens given the persistent pattern overall. But even so any relaxation around then is badly timed if you want snow since avgs are getting pretty mild by Mar 1. The weeklies will push the troughing west idea out in time until the regular ens start showing the trough in the east breaking down by d15. Weeklies aren't very special. They only extend the 0z regular ensembles from the night before they are released. If d15 keeps showing troughing in the east, the weeklies will push the flip forward in time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The weeklies will push the troughing west idea out in time until the regular ens start showing the trough in the east breaking down by d15. Weeklies aren't very special. They only extend the 0z regular ensembles from the night before they are released. If d15 keeps showing troughing in the east, the weeklies will push the flip forward in time. Not sure the point... I know everyone here is rooting for a cold and snowy March lol. I've already pretty much given in to a crappy Mar/April. Pattern will break down for a while at some point I'm sure. Signs moving forward past next week have hinted at more risk of warm storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GGEM front ends us, then comes up the apps as a strong rainstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 There's a chance. It's "complicated" but at least energetic. All guidance has showed snow here on Sat but mostly T-2" kind of stuff. We need the closed ull to dig further south. Not sure how possible that is considering where it's coming from. I would be absolutely thrilled with an inch of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GGEM front ends us, then comes up the apps as a strong rainstormSo we get the snow but it gets washed away..sounds like a winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GGEM front ends us, then comes up the apps as a strong rainstorm Gives rain to Boston from the same system by the time it is exiting the northeast... That can't possibly be right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 GGEM front ends us, then comes up the apps as a strong rainstorm It was an improvement from the 0z run that was just a rain storm. Low tracks a good bit further south than 0z. h5 is amped as it approaches the MS river so it has no problem running west of us. West track would be the most likely unless perfect sync happens like the gfs. Watch the euro come out flat and sheared again. haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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