mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 60 does have some accumulated precip for all of us.. low is tucked in better by then 500 is still nice imo tho the kicker but eh take our chances. kicker looks a bit weaker and maybe a hair further back than last run too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looks like it gets minor accumulations just to the south of DC by h60. Crush job for SE Va. Looks like 1-2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think we've seen the kind of movement we needed to keep reasonable hopes alive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looks like it gets minor accumulations just to the south of DC by h60. Crush job for SE Va. Red Flag Warning Issued by MWS (Mitchnick Weather Service) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 .5-1" for the city itself. Maybe 1-2 south. Silly to be looking at the snow maps this far out, but we fall for it every time. Looks like 1-2? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Precip shield is a decent shift. Brings 1/10 to my backdoor watching on sv since it's fast not sure they even have radar. definitely better.. not way better, but keeps things interesting. no real confidence with the kicker situation but still think 500mb should bring the low further north.. maybe as much as VA capes area.. how west or east dunno, and evolving.. but... worth watching. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I agree. It'll be a shame when we take their snow again. #notaDCasshat Red Flag Warning Issued by MWS (Mitchnick Weather Service) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 .5-1" for the city itself. Maybe 1-2 south. Silly to be looking at the snow maps this far out, but we fall for it every time. I saw the sim radar at 57... and i admit going straight to the accum snow maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 compare side-by-side the 54 hrs. 7H RH to 60 hr. from the last run marked improvement http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=054ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F00%2Fnam_namer_054_700_rh_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150224+00+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=060ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F18%2Fnam_namer_060_700_rh_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=700_rh_ht&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150223+18+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 60 does have some accumulated precip for all of us.. low is tucked in better by then,, .05" potomac south thru then 500 is still nice imo tho the kicker but eh take our chances. Is it the h5 stuff over Missouri that's hurting this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I think we've seen the kind of movement we needed to keep reasonable hopes alive Agree. Gfs will be another whiff most likely. Ukie got precip here. Euro didn't show much promise. I'd be more enthused if we had more time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Decent hit for southern and western VA, then the coastal takes over and the western flank dies. However, I don't buy the NAM and SREF when it's on it's own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Should someone start a new thread for this minor event that may or may not happen? ETA: The weenie inside me says yes, but my common sense says no Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Is it the h5 stuff over Missouri that's hurting this? not necessarily but where it is and how strong it is probably impacts the amplification potential of this one. honestly i just started really paying attention to this one today so am not up on the evolution of the multiple waves run to run. this has some sneaky potential imo tho. the nam is the nam but shoot you speed up that backside energy a bit initially and you might even have something big lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Agree. Gfs will be another whiff most likely. Ukie got precip here. Euro didn't show much promise. I'd be more enthused if we had more time. 00z HI-RES NAM should be good... i have a feeling it will be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Tolleris has 2" for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Should someone start a new thread for this minor event that may or may not happen? ETA: The weenie inside me says yes, but my common sense says no I suggested earlier today that JI start it, not that I'm superstitious of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Decent hit for southern and western VA, then the coastal takes over and the western flank dies. However, I don't buy the NAM and SREF when it's on it's own.Hug the rgem that model has been on the ball lately. Absolutely nailed this past storm for my area. Nam was terrible last storm but this is a different setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Tolleris has 2" for DC Really? Hmmm... that is intriguing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Should someone start a new thread for this minor event that may or may not happen? ETA: The weenie inside me says yes, but my common sense says no Only if Ji does it and calls it WTF part 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Hug the rgem that model has been on the ball lately. Absolutely nailed this past storm for my area. Nam was terrible last storm but this is a different setup. we will, but it's not in range for our area yet....almost for you down there tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Tolleris has 2" for DC I thought he canceled winter back in early January Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 between the coastal and the kicker, we actually might manage a few inches and 2 days of snow not a bad way to end FEB if we can't get it to come further north full brunt Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Not sure how it ends but high res is going to be tucked more than 18z. Interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm confessing ignorance here. Do we want the kicker faster to blow this up, or do we want it slower to, well, not kick? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 we will, but it's not in range for our area yet....almost for you down there tonight[/quote Mitch, not sure how I feel about this storm brother. I can definitely see seasonal trends make a bunch of us happy but this is a very volatile setup with regard to if that thing can stay closed as it keeps trucking and if it can go negative a tad earlier. It did trend northwest a bit with the precip field tonight but it's the damn nam so who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'm confessing ignorance here. Do we want the kicker faster to blow this up, or do we want it slower to, well, not kick?I vote slower. The kicker could come back to bite as a more swing and miss setup and I wouldn't put my chips all in for that hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 between the coastal and the kicker, we actually might manage a few inches and 2 days of snow not a bad way to end FEB if we can't get it to come further north full brunt Well want it to dig, kind of like 1/25/2000. The southern stream is too fast moving to phase. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Not sure how it ends but high res is going to be tucked more than 18z. Interesting. not enough I don't think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 As Bob noted time is an issue. I mean realistically we are wishing a 1-3 or so to us. Anything else would probably be a model bust we will talk about for a while and those don't happen in this range much anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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