mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 In smaller events 1-3" the SREF mean seems pretty decent verbatim, from what I've seen, however, my rule of thumb with moderate or larger events is to take about 60% of the total SREF mean inside 36 hours and you'll be pretty close to reality. srefs, from what I saw, were always pretty good for the NE blizzards this year, in the "olden days" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Kinda getting a bit close for a reverse bust. We need to get scraped with the 0z op runs. Or at least so close we can taste the flakes. If the too far south solutions hold tonight, it's close to fork time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 hr 66 12 hr QPF -- best map i could find... looks same as 15z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Kinda getting a bit close for a reverse bust. We need to get scraped with the 0z op runs. Or at least so close we can taste the flakes. If the too far south solutions hold tonight, it's close to fork time. I'd give it until 12Z tomorrow recall last weekend it was Saturday 12Z that the Euro came around to the UKMet 1st wave idea pn Monday with around .25" qpf iow, 48 hrs. is probably it...probably? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 hr 66 12 hr QPF -- best map i could find... looks same as 15z sref_namer_066_precip_p122-23-1521zrun.gif 21z SREF mean QPF for DCA is 0.23.....and the median is probably 0.00000001 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I'd give it until 12Z tomorrow recall last weekend it was Saturday 12Z that the Euro came around to the UKMet 1st wave idea pn Monday with around .25" qpf iow, 48 hrs. is probably it...probably? UKIE should be interesting tonight... hopefully it will keep the idea of a SLP near OBX on the 12z run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 21z SREF mean QPF for DCA is 0.23.....and the median is probably 0.00000001 Hmmmm... -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150223&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=DCA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=37.606711416872095&mLON=-78.59679154381752&mTYP=roadmap Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 arguably, this run of srefs is a better run when you compare this run 24 hr. precip at 78 hrs. (top link) to last run at 84 hrs. precip is broader and further north this run with a tick north on the .25" http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F21%2Fsref_namer_078_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=21¶m=precip_p24&fhr=078&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150223+21+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fsref%2F15%2Fsref_namer_084_precip_p24.gif&model=sref&area=namer&storm=&cycle=15¶m=precip_p24&fhr=084&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=&ps=model&use_mins=no&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150223+15+UTC&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Hmmmm... -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150223&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=DCA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=37.606711416872095&mLON=-78.59679154381752&mTYP=roadmap Members MBP1/MBP3 skew the mean just a lil bit (both near 10 inches of snow)... there are a total of 8 members above the mean of ~3 it would appear Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Srefs means only work precip when you're exactly half way between the maximum and the back edge, otherwise they suck. They do better for tracking intense lows like Sandy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 A lot of NWS guys seem to love SREF but I think it's partly the idea of SREF rather than what it is. I do think it has more purpose as a fine detail tool in the short range or a decider on something if you are seeing some disagreement on those kinds of things. In theory it should be like a global ensemble at range but each member is inferior to the NAM (lol) and the short term models have always been prone to huge run to run changes once outside the early part of their runs. Someday... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Members MBP1/MBP3 skew the mean just a lil bit (both near 10 inches of snow)... there are a total of 8 members above the mean of ~3 it would appearI hear dark green has the best verification scores. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yuki neko Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 I hear dark green has the best verification scores. Which ones are those? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Which ones are those? The ones that never happen Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 NAM should get a little closer this run based on the run thru 36 hrs. far enough? we'll have to wait and see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 NAM should get a little closer this run based on the run thru 36 hrs. far enough? we'll have to wait and see I read this and think of an anchor telling folks to hang around for the story coming up after the break. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 I read this and think of an anchor telling folks to hang around for the story coming up after the break. so I guess you expect a flex seal commercial out of me, eh? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 a hair further north at 48.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 a hair further north at 48.. at least thru 42 hrs, which is where I am, the storm in the NE is a little further SSW than the last run which isn't helping thru 42 hrs....we'll see about later Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 I will add that at 42 hrs, the 5H is deeper and almost still closed, so that's the right direction Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looking at radar at 54, makes it look like we will get some precip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 It's coming, but how far? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looks like some light snow at 57 and 60 based off of simulated reflectivity radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Any changes fairly marginal thru 57.. low SE of outer banks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Any chance we can move this low 200 miles north in 48 hours? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 looks decent at 60.. still has some work to do Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 Any chance we can move this low 200 miles north in 48 hours? 100 would do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looks like it gets minor accumulations just to the south of DC by h60. Crush job for SE Va. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 60 does have some accumulated precip for all of us.. low is tucked in better by then,, .05" potomac south thru then 500 is still nice imo tho the kicker but eh take our chances. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Any changes fairly marginal thru 57.. low SE of outer banks. Precip shield is a decent shift. Brings 1/10 to my backdoor Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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