ravensrule Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yea, ticked further south. Not exactly something you want to see when wishcasting inside of 72 hours As long as every other model continues ticking north i am fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GFS going further south is a concern. With the last storm, the NAM made that northwest shift and the GFS basically stayed put and the GFS won as the NAM eventually came back southeast as the event unfolded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yea, ticked further south. Not exactly something you want to see when wishcasting inside of 72 hours GFS sucks with coastals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 NWS like painting a generic chance of snow for the upcoming weekend! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 That happens when you're a late winter snow town. NWS like painting a generic chance of snow for the upcoming weekend! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GFS 18z runs aren't to be trusted when changes are occurring on other models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GFS sucks with coastals. No doubt and we toss. Where the heck is yoda with the hr54 rgem panel? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Could this be possibly the last storm we may see this winter or is there anything else in the forecast? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Only place locally that has a decent chance to see meaningful snow Thursday is coastal MD/DE. Rehoboth Beach- maybe a 1-3 inch event. That's being optimistic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Ace, the answer to both of your questions is yes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 No doubt and we toss. Where the heck is yoda with the hr54 rgem panel? close enough for now 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Ace, the answer to both of your questions is yes. Thanks Bob. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 close enough for now 48 hrs Cool looking 948 low in the North Atlantic there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 close enough for now 48 hrs notice the 1017 High off the NC/SC to block a clean exit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Thanks Bob. That's technically true for every system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Pretty fat overrunning setup early next week on the gfs. There's a lot of looks like this going on right now. Euro ens has a cluster of solutions that snow on us the exact same way as the gfs is showing. Ggem was a weenie run @ 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Pretty fat overrunning setup early next week on the gfs. There's a lot of looks like this going on right now. Euro ens has a cluster of solutions that snow on us the exact same way as the gfs is showing. Ggem was a weenie run @ 12z. So was 0Z. If it wasn't such a crappy model this winter my weenie might be a little excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 That's technically true for every system. It's was an equally divided response between joking and serious. As long as these cold highs keep dropping down we'll have continued chances. Looks like a bunch of them too (cold highs not chances). Wrapped storms will go west but there's a good bit of confluence showing up in a weeks time. Pretty classic look for overrunning type stuff. And lots of time for it to change to warm rain by the time we get there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Here's my latest 2 week CWG guess. Cold and then more variable but still chilly. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/wp/2015/02/23/two-week-outlook-winter-maintains-its-icy-below-average-grip/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Just stepping back from the models, you would have to think that with a touch of retrogression apparent in past week (west coast ridge has shifted back into the coastal Pacific, colder air seeped west into Great Basin, etc), the signal that has been affecting New England for ages should to some extent appear more over the inland northeast to Ohio valley. The key question is, will that mean cutters and warmth, or sharply digging troughs and coastals, or a mixture? I am guessing mixture. That means there is probably one really decent snowstorm to come for the I-95 Mid-Atl corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 That's an improvement from last night. 12z yesterday had 11, last night had like 6, so seeing 12 now is a good thing. I thought the tracks looked slightly worse overall than 00z though. It's not much of an improvement, sadly. I would have loved to have seen more spread and with maybe a few actual hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Only place locally that has a decent chance to see meaningful snow Thursday is coastal MD/DE. Rehoboth Beach- maybe a 1-3 inch event. That's being optimistic.I support this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It's was an equally divided response between joking and serious. As long as these cold highs keep dropping down we'll have continued chances. Looks like a bunch of them too (cold highs not chances). Wrapped storms will go west but there's a good bit of confluence showing up in a weeks time. Pretty classic look for overrunning type stuff. And lots of time for it to change to warm rain by the time we get there. There has been, and still are, some solutions that bring a good low into East Tennessee with cad. That works for me, bring it on. I'm talking 7+ days out, so there's that to consider also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Really active pattern on the models for next week. You have to figure at least one of those vorts is going to hit us. The models keep keying on the March 3rd time frame it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I admit taking a peek at the 18z GEFS ensembles for Thursday -- 2 brushes (~0.10 QPF) and 1 weak hit (~0.25) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
attml Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Looks like the point and click thinks it is going to snow this weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Looks like the point and click thinks it is going to snow this weekend days and days of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Looks like the point and click thinks it is going to snow this weekend saw that earlier, but the discussion didn't point to a particular storm, just some waves that may skip on by. we have the cold this week, though. we get qpf every few days here throughout the year, wouldn't surprise me if we get one more snowstorm in the next 2 weeks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 24, 2015 Author Share Posted February 24, 2015 18z RGEM at 54 has a 1004mb SLP just SE of Mobile Bay, AL 18zRGEMhr54QPFmapfrom2-23-15.gif that could certainly work let's extrapolate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 24, 2015 Share Posted February 24, 2015 Ah ok, thanks for that. I will do that in the future. In smaller events 1-3" the SREF mean seems pretty decent verbatim, from what I've seen, however, my rule of thumb with moderate or larger events is to take about 60% of the total SREF mean inside 36 hours and you'll be pretty close to reality. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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