high risk Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 15z SREF is interesting with the 0.25" line up to Fredericksburg. But looking at the plumes, the liquid mean for DCA is 0.2". It's inflated a bit by a few members with crazy wet solutions, but roughly half of the members have at least 0.1" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It's funny how this winter is working out. Very similar to last year with the moving bullseye but not really in the same order. Last year was SNE-SE-MA. This year (so far) is SNE-MA-SE (assuming they get hit this week). in the end game, every one gets hit, amen!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 15z SREF is interesting with the 0.25" line up to Fredericksburg. But looking at the plumes, the liquid mean for DCA is 0.2". It's inflated a bit by a few members with crazy wet solutions, but roughly half of the members have at least 0.1" liquid. Came north a bit on the mean. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I have no idea if this is right or not because I haven't followed it closely enough, but snowgoose wrote in the SE forum that the SREF has a north bias this winter. 15z SREF is interesting with the 0.25" line up to Fredericksburg. But looking at the plumes, the liquid mean for DCA is 0.2". It's inflated a bit by a few members with crazy wet solutions, but roughly half of the members have at least 0.1" liquid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I have no idea if this is right or not because I haven't followed it closely enough, but snowgoose wrote in the SE forum that the SREF has a north bias this winter. It has a general wrong bias in winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 besides their clear awful wrong bias, they have also been north most of the time as well. There seem to be 3-4 members within the SREF that tend to have crazy amped up solutions, and not just slightly more amped but members that show some stupid 980 bomb when everything else has a 1004 squashed wave. These members have skewed the SREF mean badly all winter. Last year I read something that indicated NWS was aware of the problem and working on it, but I guess it still has not been fixed. It's a shame because in theory a short range high resolution ensemble would be a good idea, but they are useless. ETA: ninjad by Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I count 12 ensemble members (just under 25%) that show 2" or more of snow on the EPS for DCA for the Thursday "event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Thanks for the confirmation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowdude Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It's also a good idea to remove the top snowiest and least snowiest members to get a more accurate mean while using SREF. They were pretty accurate with the big storm along the eastern shore last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 You can't classify the SREF as a "high resolution" ensemble. But I overall agree that the overall SREF utility is limited. As users, though, we have to be careful looking at means without getting a sense of what's driving them, as they're not all equal. For example, last night's 21z SREF mean suggested a northward trend, but it was based on 3 or so members with huge hits. Today's 15z has a few wet members but a significant number of members with 0.1". It could easily still end up as 0 for DC, but I don't think we can discount the chances for at least 1" in DC. But in the bigger picture, it sure would be nice if the SREF didn't show so much inconsistency from cycle to cycle..... besides their clear awful wrong bias, they have also been north most of the time as well. There seem to be 3-4 members within the SREF that tend to have crazy amped up solutions, and not just slightly more amped but members that show some stupid 980 bomb when everything else has a 1004 squashed wave. These members have skewed the SREF mean badly all winter. Last year I read something that indicated NWS was aware of the problem and working on it, but I guess it still has not been fixed. It's a shame because in theory a short range high resolution ensemble would be a good idea, but they are useless. ETA: ninjad by Ian Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 15z SREF is interesting with the 0.25" line up to Fredericksburg. But looking at the plumes, the liquid mean for DCA is 0.2". It's inflated a bit by a few members with crazy wet solutions, but roughly half of the members have at least 0.1" liquid. Ukie has been consistent bringing at least .10 to ezf. The ukie manages to drop 1-3" around these parts between a scrape with the coastal the ns vort on the heels. Takes 18 hours to get the couple inches on the ground but beggars can't be choosers. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I count 12 ensemble members (just under 25%) that show 2" or more of snow on the EPS for DCA for the Thursday "event" That's an improvement from last night. 12z yesterday had 11, last night had like 6, so seeing 12 now is a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 They certainly do show that, but I really don't like the snow plumes, as the way they convert liquid to snow ends up with some very high numbers in "cold" events. IMHO, looking at the QPF has more utility. I count 12 ensemble members (just under 25%) that show 2" or more of snow on the EPS for DCA for the Thursday "event" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 They certainly do show that, but I really don't like the snow plumes, as the way they convert liquid to snow ends up with some very high numbers in "cold" events. IMHO, looking at the QPF has more utility. Ah ok, thanks for that. I will do that in the future. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Every solution on the euro ens members that brings qpf to dc from the coastal has a sub 1k low over or just east of OBX. None of the ones with a further south track or weaker low of of the OBX get anything meaningful in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAM is further west with 7H RH at 57 hrs. vs. 12Z at 63 hrs. in the end, this storm is going to be close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAM is closer....it's getting there the wave to follow looks beefier too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 NAM is further west with 7H RH at 57 hrs. vs. 12Z at 63 hrs. in the end, this storm is going to be close none of the other models really do anything at all with that part. now i'm confused. which si the second wave? i thought thurs was the first wave. edit: nvm.. i can't read.. but the nam is more robust with that wed piece than others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 none of the other models really do anything at all with that part. now i'm confused. which si the second wave? i thought thurs was the first wave. edit: nvm.. i can't read.. but the nam is more robust with that wed piece than others. I'm hugging the ukie. It's the snowiest model with 2" between the 2 features Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Every solution on the euro ens members that brings qpf to dc from the coastal has a sub 1k low over or just east of OBX. None of the ones with a further south track or weaker low of of the OBX get anything meaningful in here. yeah anything south or east of OBX isn't going to do much.. even that's pushing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm hugging the ukie. It's the snowiest model with 2" between the 2 features I might be weenie'ing but the vort pass on Thurs is better than the sfc on latest models IMO. I guess we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 What is the deadline for hoping to see meaningful change with this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 What is the deadline for hoping to see meaningful change with this? We saw meaningful change this past weekend within 12-24 hours, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I might be weenie'ing but the vort pass on Thurs is better than the sfc on latest models IMO. I guess we'll see. h5 looks pretty good. If I didn't have access to surface panels I would prob be thinking differently. Sucks that there is zero ns help. I guess that's part of the problem. Pretty discrete storm. Stays very compact for it's track and strength Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It's a shame because in theory a short range high resolution ensemble would be a good idea, but they are useless. There is also an RGEM ensemble. It's only a few years old and I don't know of any sites other than meteocentre that have it. I have no idea how good it is, but it could be a useful alternative to the SREFs. It goes out to 72 hours so it's just coming into range now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 What is the deadline for hoping to see meaningful change with this? 5 minutes after onset Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Just for giggles...nam 12k radar @ hr60 on top and 4k below. My superb extrapolation skills say the nam 4k would drop some snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 deja vu Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 18Z Goofus is still stubborn and way south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The 18Z Goofus is still stubborn and way south. Yea, ticked further south. Not exactly something you want to see when wishcasting inside of 72 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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