Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 That could be good for an area wide 2-3 Might be a bit of a gradient between DC and northeast MD though, going by the absolute precip amounts! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 DC jackpot. Lock it up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Still decent through 183... all snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 DC jackpot. Lock it up. Timed phase @ 7 day leads are easy peazy for models to nail. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Just about perfect for the setup probably... exactly what we don't want 7 days out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well at least its 7 days out Hopefully THIS threat will come to fruition Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 DC jackpot. Lock it up. LMAO!! Well, those two words have been oxymorons very often this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Timed phase @ 7 day leads are easy peazy for models to nail. lol Any real phase is pretty late.. kinda just precip running into an old cold airmass.. kind of how some have assumed we might get snow out of this pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Back into the freezer we go looks like per 12z GFS after the "threat" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Any real phase is pretty late.. kinda just precip running into an old cold airmass.. kind of how some have assumed we might get snow out of this pattern. Phase was a bad choice of words because the NS interacts to add fuel as the low tracks along the deep south. Not really a phase. Just some extra amp at the perfect time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Nice...6" snowstorm and we will be up for all of it. And only a week away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Nice...6" snowstorm and we will be up for all of it. And only a week away! Jackpot for us and Boston. We must be due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Phase was a bad choice of words because the NS interacts to add fuel as the low tracks along the deep south. Not really a phase. Just some extra amp at the perfect time. I'd kinda rather it go back south now heh. We know how this can end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'd kinda rather it go back south now heh. We know how this can end. Shhh! The models will hear you and make it so. We do not speak of that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Any real phase is pretty late.. kinda just precip running into an old cold airmass.. kind of how some have assumed we might get snow out of this pattern. Phase was a bad choice of words because the NS interacts to add fuel as the low tracks along the deep south. Not really a phase. Just some extra amp at the perfect time. Pretty much what we can do best. Good overrunning of a lot of moisture into a very cold existing air mass. Those seem to be the "simplest" for us, relatively speaking, especially with the lack of blocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I'd kinda rather it go back south now heh. We know how this can end. The big difference showed up @ d5 or so with a much stronger shortwave digging through the west. I'm rooting for a strong storm. Even something that runs overhead or west is still going to snow on us (if the gfs version plays out in some fashion). Today's run is just eye candy. I'd be happy with any wet system coming up from the south even if it's mixed. Much better than the NS stuff we have in front of us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Encouraging events on the GFS! I just pray we don't get Lucy'd. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Shhh! The models will hear you and make it so. We do not speak of that Ugh at the next cold shot after. Overdone but looks like another doozy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Jackpot for us and Boston. We must be due. Well, I'm sure most everyone would feel the same, but if we can score a good (or better) storm out of it, I don't much care if BOS gets two feet by the time it gets up their way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Pretty much what we can do best. Good overrunning of a lot of moisture into a very cold existing air mass. Those seem to be the "simplest" for us, relatively speaking, especially with the lack of blocking. that "may" change late month into MAR as the Euro continued on last night's run (2nd run in a row) to split the PV Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Shhh! The models will hear you and make it so. We do not speak of that That which should not be named? *ahem* Voldemort? *ahem* Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Ugh at the next cold shot after. Overdone but looks like another doozy. February looks like a BN month if these arctic shots keep coming like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Ugh at the next cold shot after. Overdone but looks like another doozy. If there's snow on the ground, then I'm all for vodka cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The big difference showed up @ d5 or so with a much stronger shortwave digging through the west. I'm rooting for a strong storm. Even something that runs overhead or west is still going to snow on us (if the gfs version plays out in some fashion). Today's run is just eye candy. I'd be happy with any wet system coming up from the south even if it's mixed. Much better than the NS stuff we have in front of us To some degree though I don't think I'd want to see much stronger than now.. there's already not that huge of breathing room. I mean if you just want some snow followed by rain I guess it doesn't matter but there's no classic high as is etc. Of course it's so far out it's not really worth the analysis.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 February looks like a BN month if these arctic shots keep coming like that Even if these arctic shots are modeled 10-15 degrees too cold it will still be darn cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 that "may" change late month into MAR as the Euro continued on last night's run (2nd run in a row) to split the PV That "may" be nice if it happens, but getting a bit too late for here. Who knows though, it might lead to something interesting through the first part of March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 12z GGEM likes us for some snowTV at 108-114 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 that "may" change late month into MAR as the Euro continued on last night's run (2nd run in a row) to split the PV We've already seen a much more impressive split this year and plenty of perturbations. Every time has been temporary and reconsolidation shortly after. However, the last big split was partly responsible for the big cold shot in Jan with clippers that actually snowed on us. I wouldn't think too far ahead with the strat stuff. Nothing has broke favorable in the way of sustained blocking so it's best to assume it isn't happening this year until it's already happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 after the "storm", the GFS has shoved the vortex over western Hudson Bay which should change things with the next clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 that "may" change late month into MAR as the Euro continued on last night's run (2nd run in a row) to split the PV euro weeklies have suggested a neutral NAO or sometimes negative NAO by beginning of Mar. but... not sure that necessarily means we're going to get much snow after that. probably helps lock in a crappy march/april. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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