mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 5:00 PM, Ian said: always bet on a north trend even when it's meteorologically impossible. but there are no "meteorologically impossibilities" when it comes to model forecasting because they are future predictions that are never 100% correct so what looks to be impossible based on a 72 hr. prediction can, in fact, be possible since the prediction is flawed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Richmond is at 7.4 inches this season. Would be nice to actually hit the seasonal average again down here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 5:00 PM, Ian said: always bet on a north trend even when it's meteorologically impossible. haha. i think it's probably not a north trend (it's the same track) so much as the low is just stronger and has a larger precip field? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 5:18 PM, paulythegun said: haha. i think it's probably not a north trend (it's the same track) so much as the low is just stronger and has a larger precip field?Well it's on the northern envelope. Good bit north of the GFS. 500mb is decent. We just can't know yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 GFS is also advertising the same type of gradient/boundary setup down the line that the euro is. Could be a very interesting period. HP placement as waves move along won't be know but it would be pretty fun and funny if we end up on the right side for a couple of events in early March. March seems to be making a comeback of sorts recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 4:59 PM, Ian said: I don't get this.. I wasn't even really talking about the storm with that comment. Every other post I made was not bearish on the event. I guess I'm a big deal since I have trolls now. You are a big deal. I tease everybody though, so there's that to consider. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 5:00 PM, Ian said: always bet on a north trend even when it's meteorologically impossible. You think I can get 6" out of this. I got screwed royally Saturday, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 5:30 PM, Bob Chill said: GFS is also advertising the same type of gradient/boundary setup down the line that the euro is. Could be a very interesting period. HP placement as waves move along won't be know but it would be pretty fun and funny if we end up on the right side for a couple of events in early March. March seems to be making a comeback of sorts recently. That's gonna be the key. You'd think the h5 pattern at that time would be more likely to slide those highs off the coast up around Maine rather than the MA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 5:36 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: You think I can get 6" out of this. I got screwed royally Saturday, We just can't know yet. It'll take some luck.. GFS ens mean is north of the op and north of last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 5:40 PM, Ian said: We just can't know yet. It'll take some luck.. GFS ens mean is north of the op and north of last night. That's almost always a good thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 No point in wasting the cold air..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 5:40 PM, Ian said: We just can't know yet. It'll take some luck.. GFS ens mean is north of the op and north of last night. There are a couple of decent hits on the members: P002/P007/P015 are decent at 72 as "hits" while a few other graze the region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 5:40 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: That's almost always a good thing. I don't have super crazy hopes but I wouldn't rule much out yet. We'd probably want some more trending by/thru 0z at least. I thought the ratio snow would move north too though once it settled south and it didn't.. but I don't think there's anything screaming it can't really. Not to mention models have backed off on the punch of the cold shot a bit as we close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 5:03 PM, Ian said: I know gymengineer wants to remind us how crappy models have been outside 72 hours this year. I'm actually burned out of following anything closely. This last Saturday made a season for me In any case, it's the same sentence you've been saying: "We just can't know" right now what exactly is happening outside of 72-hours. Not because the models are particularly crappy, but just they can't perform the way we want them to past 3-days in the type of flow we've had. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 5:00 PM, Ian said: always bet on a north trend even when it's meteorologically impossible. how funny and true ,HM commented on one of the models showing a cutter and just said "hmmmm" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 1:33 PM, Bob Chill said: lol Euro ensembles are pretty bullish on snow-ice-rain Sunday. Multiple waves along the boundary going forward with us on the losing side until d9-10. And then turning colder and potentially stormy d10-15. Western ridge returns and a battle in the middle of the country with the ridge over the gulf and trough pushing down. Looks like a boundary on the means with no shortage of precip. And we're on the winning side...for now...lol Interesting run and it's only a week away. I like this one from the minute yoda began discussing it. Good high pressure that right now to me does not look like it's hugging the midatlantic coast but rather to our n-ne. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 5:47 PM, gymengineer said: I'm actually burned out of following anything closely. This last Saturday made a season for me In any case, it's the same sentence you've been saying: "We just can't know" right now what exactly is happening outside of 72-hours. Not because the models are particularly crappy, but just they can't perform the way we want them to past 3-days in the type of flow we've had. Right, probably a better way to say it.. though I think in general the models locking in at d5 is a rarity most winters. On 2/23/2015 at 5:49 PM, mdsnowlover said: how funny and true ,HM commented on one of the models showing a cutter and just said "hmmmm" Main issue might be the 'seasonal trend' for flatter systems than modeled. It could go either way--I just have a hard time ruling out that it would come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 12z EURO at 60 has a 1003mb SLP just south of the FL panhandle ETA: Going to be a miss but QPF makes it up to C VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 6:08 PM, yoda said: 12z EURO at 60 has a 1003mb SLP just south of the FL panhandle Not happening this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 6:09 PM, Ian said: Not happening this run. The only trend from last night is a slightly weaker low. Same track and cutoff. Not a step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 6:11 PM, Bob Chill said: The only trend from last night is a slightly weaker low. Same track and cutoff. Not a step in the right direction. yeah for the most part tho I thought the 500mb was a little better but didn't show at the sfc. 500mb is still kind of intriguing.. 0z will be telling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It's funny how this winter is working out. Very similar to last year with the moving bullseye but not really in the same order. Last year was SNE-SE-MA. This year (so far) is SNE-MA-SE (assuming they get hit this week). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Almost too bad there's the first sys as the second might be something without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 6:14 PM, Ian said: Almost too bad there's the first sys as the second might be something without it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 6:14 PM, Ian said: Almost too bad there's the first sys as the second might be something without it. If the thursday system can leave enough of a baroclinic zone behind we could pop a low in a good spot Friday as the northern stream vort crosses the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packbacker Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 6:14 PM, Bob Chill said: It's funny how this winter is working out. Very similar to last year with the moving bullseye but not really in the same order. Last year was SNE-SE-MA. This year (so far) is SNE-MA-SE (assuming they get hit this week). That's a big assumption and don't jinx us, I will be happy with 1" of snow. At this range for the Feb 16th event you guys weren't even sniffing snow and RDU was in the bullseye, well it seems like we blinked and we went to a raging ice storm and you guys were looking at 3-6". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 6:44 PM, packbacker said: That's a big assumption and don't jinx us, I will be happy with 1" of snow. At this range for the Feb 16th event you guys weren't even sniffing snow and RDU was in the bullseye, well it seems like we blinked and we went to a raging ice storm and you guys were looking at 3-6".I think you guys are in decent shape on this one. Euro run had to make you relax a little. It barely wavered from 0z. Good sign inside of 72 with a miller A. The storm we just had was a hot mess from a modeling perspective. I'm rooting for you guys on this one. It's getting late and the SE needs a good hit this year. This should be the one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 6:36 PM, psuhoffman said: If the thursday system can leave enough of a baroclinic zone behind we could pop a low in a good spot Friday as the northern stream vort crosses the area. That's kinda what I've been thinking all along. The ns piece is probably our best chance. Not a lot of upside there but a couple inches would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 On 2/23/2015 at 4:18 PM, wawarriors4 said: How far North do you think could see an inch possibly? Many of us have been doing this a long time to realize in a setup without a -NAO or -AO, being 30 miles north of modeled precip 72 hours out is usually not a bad thing (as in EZF). I would imagine the precip shield trends north until the end, how much remains fully dependent on the ultimate strength antecedent air mass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
McQuackleton Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 So I'm assuming this storm coming up the NC coast on Thursday is our last shot for this winter? Or is there something next week pending? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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