ravensrule Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 For u guys thinking this has a chance, i'm curious to what you think is the top potential. I think 2"+ in dc/bwi is near miracle status. Wes may do half decent if it comes north. I'm rooting big for him. This is what LC just said: If that closed low in Ontario is deeper and a bit more west, then shortwave #2 comes north up the coast. ECMWF and UKMET should have best handle on Wed/Thurs sequence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think winter can shove it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think winter can shove it. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think winter can shove it. We are getting your 20" somehow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 For u guys thinking this has a chance, i'm curious to what you think is the top potential. I think 2"+ in dc/bwi is near miracle status. Wes may do half decent if it comes north. I'm rooting big for him. Being that it's 3 days away, I'd go with 4-6" as the MAX potential. When you go top end, you have to go huge, so says LWX. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 We are talking about Thursday right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 We are getting your 20" somehow. If we get a 20" storm, I'll post Ravensrule is King once per day, for the next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Yea, that's the part that sucks nflwx. There's nothing to ignite an expansive precip shield on the nw side. Track is very good if there was some stream phasing. It's going to be compact. Probably too compact. I never expected much so no biggie. The next wave is more interesting because there is a little piece of ns energy scooting down. That alone could get us an inch or 2. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If we get a 20" storm, I'll post Ravensrule is King once per day, for the next year. I am not to worried that you wil have to, but i am bumping this if we do . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think winter can shove it. north or south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 For u guys thinking this has a chance, i'm curious to what you think is the top potential. I think 2"+ in dc/bwi is near miracle status. Wes may do half decent if it comes north. I'm rooting big for him. If Wes does half decent that means I'd do more than half decent... LWX only has mostly sunny in my forecast the rest of the week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 north or south? North eventually. Wes needs to be able to enjoy fishing without watching snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 regardless of what happens here, anytime a storm doesn't come north and crush NE feels like a victory to me lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I'm out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Worked last time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 For u guys thinking this has a chance, i'm curious to what you think is the top potential. I think 2"+ in dc/bwi is near miracle status. Wes may do half decent if it comes north. I'm rooting big for him. Bob, feel those of us down around EZF may have a chance at maybe 1-3 which would be nice. I'm only about 4.5" away from Climo for the year, trying to get there any way I can.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think winter can shove it. Good model analysis. If we were on Twitter right now, I'd favorite that immediately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I agree, Bob. The full phasing potential with this system is low, thus we should not expect a juiced up system that drops 6"+ region wide. While it's not truly a southern slider, it has that feel as the northern stream will shear the top of the storm and boot it out to sea. We are getting close to game time for any big shifts, but as we know a north trend with the precip shield should not be unexpected given the raging + AO and NAO. I see Richmond doing okay in this type of setup. How far North do you think could see an inch possibly? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Being that it's 3 days away, I'd go with 4-6" as the MAX potential. When you go top end, you have to go huge, so says LWX. And I forgot to add, the minimum I see is 0" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 North eventually. Wes needs to be able to enjoy fishing without watching snow. Hope he's got an ice shack Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 For u guys thinking this has a chance, i'm curious to what you think is the top potential. I think 2"+ in dc/bwi is near miracle status. Wes may do half decent if it comes north. I'm rooting big for him. If we're talking about Thursday night, yeah 2" of cold powder for DCA would be a miracle. Anything measurable at BWI would be miracle status.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Are you guys serious? (Channeling Ian). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Are you guys serious? (Channeling Ian). That didn't work out well for him on the last one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 UKMet looks stronger compared to 00z (1000mb vs 997mb out to 72 hours). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 UKMet looks stronger compared to 00z (1000mb vs 997mb out to 72 hours). wouldn't take a whole heck of a lot of a change to get some qpf into DCA/BWI....in fact, the next panel would probably show some light stuff into our area EDIT: light stuff as in 2"+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 That didn't work out well for him on the last one. I don't get this.. I wasn't even really talking about the storm with that comment. Every other post I made was not bearish on the event. I guess I'm a big deal since I have trolls now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NinjaWarrior2 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 12z GGEM is also north and stronger Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 wouldn't take a whole heck of a lot of a change to get some qpf into DCA/BWI....in fact, the next panel would probably show some light stuff into our area EDIT: light stuff as in 2"+ always bet on a north trend even when it's meteorologically impossible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I hope Wes and Noreastericane get crushed by snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I know gymengineer wants to remind us how crappy models have been outside 72 hours this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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