yoda Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Interestingly, a few of the individual GGEM ensemble members show some "good hits" for our region at 156... Also, after taking a quick glance, there also seems to be some EPS members who also see a chance for an "event" during that time period... I counted 13/14 or so (little over 25%) that had good snows over our region (I used the 3 inch mark as a baseline) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I wouldn't call it typical. lots of years March is a straight torch with no chsnce. We had 2 cold snowy marches in a row in the area and some forget the ones where winter is just flat over by March 7. It's something how much March can vary -- 2012 was +10.1 (Dulles) with 11 days 70 or above and five 80 or above. Then the last two cold ones with March 2014 at -6.8 and three snow events adding up to almost 20 inches. Crazy! I would welcome a warm one after next weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 06z GFS has a H in perfect position Day 7 into 8, but doesn't see the CAD (IMO) and we get rain. For example, one can clearly see the CAD at 174, but at 180, CAD is gone and the 32 degree line is up in central PA. Is the track of the SLP responsible for eroding the CAD that fast? Or is it something else? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 06z GFS has a H in perfect position Day 7 into 8, but doesn't see the CAD (IMO) and we get rain. For example, one can clearly see the CAD at 174, but at 180, CAD is gone and the 32 degree line is up in central PA. Is the track of the SLP responsible for eroding the CAD that fast? Or is it something else? euro has it as rain too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 06z GFS has a H in perfect position Day 7 into 8, but doesn't see the CAD (IMO) and we get rain. Think about how some of the models missed the cold air damming just two days ago. Keep hope alive. Maybe we've got one more plowable snow left in the pipeline. 3F forecast for tomorrow morning, nothing much has changed, pattern still reloading. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 euro has it as rain too So moisture seems like a decent bet at this point?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 So moisture seems like a decent bet at this point?? DependsTM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 EPS seems to have inched north for Thursday/Friday. 5 or 6 big hits for DC and SE. Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 That storm at one week, provided it happens at all, seems destined to be interesting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 That storm at one week, provided it happens at all, seems destined to be interesting. A week in modeling....accuracy at its finest this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 A week in modeling....accuracy at its finest this year Perfect trends to terrible. Bad trends to decent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Perfect trends to terrible. Bad trends to decent. I like surprise 1-3" snows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 A week in modeling....accuracy at its finest this year lol Euro ensembles are pretty bullish on snow-ice-rain Sunday. Multiple waves along the boundary going forward with us on the losing side until d9-10. And then turning colder and potentially stormy d10-15. Western ridge returns and a battle in the middle of the country with the ridge over the gulf and trough pushing down. Looks like a boundary on the means with no shortage of precip. And we're on the winning side...for now...lol Interesting run and it's only a week away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 lol Euro ensembles are pretty bullish on snow-ice-rain Sunday. Multiple waves along the boundary going forward with us on the losing side until d9-10. And then turning colder and potentially stormy d10-15. Western ridge returns and a battle in the middle of the country with the ridge over the gulf and trough pushing down. Looks like a boundary on the means with no shortage of precip. And we're on the winning side...for now...lol Interesting run and it's only a week away. Remember where the Sat snow-ice-rain was on the models at long range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Remember where the Sat snow-ice-rain was on the models at long range. If we have a record breaking high departing off the coast on Saturday we can start getting excited about all snow prospects. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 If we have a record breaking high departing off the coast on Saturday we can start getting excited about all snow prospects. From what I looked at, looks like there might be some high pressure to the north this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
feloniousq Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 DT currently hyping up the masses based on SREFs 72 hours out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 12Z NAM keeps the late week system in the 'keep an eye on it' category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 not that I'm superstitious or anything, but JI, start a thread for the Thursday threat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 interesting look on the NAM at 57 hrs.....it flattens out in the next few panels, but still has potential http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_057_500_vort_ht.gif&model=nam&area=namer&storm=&cycle=12¶m=500_vort_ht&fhr=057&group=Model+Guidance&imageSize=M&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150223+12+UTC&ps=model&use_mins=no&scrollx=0&scrolly=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 lol 84 hrs. on the NAM has a little something too based on sim/rad rest of the maps aren't out quite yet on ncep http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_sim_radar.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=sim_radar&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150223+12+UTC&imageSize=M&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 DT currently hyping up the masses based on SREFs 72 hours out.Its a much better chance in Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Its a much better chance in Richmond.t Most definitely. I counted 18 EPs members with 4"+ or so. All the amped solutions look better for Central VA, obviously. And 8 that are absolute paste jobs for Richmond and Tidewater. So if history is any guide, DT will hype it up and then it will trend way north, thanks to a combination of atmospheric memory, mother nature spiting DT, model trend inertia, seasonal trends, "stuff always trends north", southern bias, etc, etc. That thing just looks super juiced up down in the gulf by Wednesday. Give us a slightly weaker high (which - nonsense aside - actually seems to be a trend) and boom, we have our first decent Miller A. I'm excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think we are hoping for too much northward push. We could see a couple inches from this.. sure.. but I think it has too much ground to overcome.. and then again! I WAS WRONG last time! LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/569878870150639616 Current wpc probs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 RGEM 48 hr. map.....I could see this working for us if that northern energy drops into the trough around TX while the vortex over southern Hudson Bay pulls away to the N/NE causing heights to rise in the east; gunna' need good timing, as usual, but I could see it working http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/600_100.gif Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 For u guys thinking this has a chance, i'm curious to what you think is the top potential. I think 2"+ in dc/bwi is near miracle status. Wes may do half decent if it comes north. I'm rooting big for him. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 For u guys thinking this has a chance, i'm curious to what you think is the top potential. I think 2"+ in dc/bwi is near miracle status. Wes may do half decent if it comes north. I'm rooting big for him. Agreed, flat fast flow..this is not going to have some huge blossoming moisture to its north, so even a bit more north and it is nothing more than a dust at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nflwxman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 For u guys thinking this has a chance, i'm curious to what you think is the top potential. I think 2"+ in dc/bwi is near miracle status. Wes may do half decent if it comes north. I'm rooting big for him. I agree, Bob. The full phasing potential with this system is low, thus we should not expect a juiced up system that drops 6"+ region wide. While it's not truly a southern slider, it has that feel as the northern stream will shear the top of the storm and boot it out to sea. We are getting close to game time for any big shifts, but as we know a north trend with the precip shield should not be unexpected given the raging + AO and NAO. I see Richmond doing okay in this type of setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 For u guys thinking this has a chance, i'm curious to what you think is the top potential. I think 2"+ in dc/bwi is near miracle status. Wes may do half decent if it comes north. I'm rooting big for him. personally, I haven't even thought about amounts too far to go before we get there, but last Monday was a NC/S VA snow storm on the models days out so who knows EDIT: this has been a season of miracles......6-10" with a Low to our west being the most recent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.