Fozz Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Obviously no science in this statement. But if anything I think we are due for a warm winter. The past 2 have been very cold. I would be surprised if we had a 3rd cold one in a row. And if we were to average above normal it does not mean it wont snow. I agree on the snow cover tracking. I am still not convinced it means anything. I've said this to Ian but it really seems like the East coast is due for mundane, mild winter without any KU storms. From 09-10 onwards, every winter has had a major to epic storm somewhere on the East coast (even 2011-12 if you count October). It's been insane in SNE especially... I don't know if the law of averages means anything or is just a fallacy but my gut tells me things will probably slow down sooner or later. We can only have the world's coldest temp anomalies for so many winters before things are reshuffled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 anyone who thinks winter is over before the start of the second week in March (at the earliest) needs to hit the play button (centered under the word "HURRICANE") of the GEFS' 2m temp anomalies http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs-ens®ion=us&pkg=T2ma&runtime=2015022218&fh=0&xpos=0&ypos=0 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I agree Fozz. Cycles appear everywhere in weather patterns over multi year periods. We had a mega east coast hurricane cycle in the first decade of the 21st century. Coastal residents from tx to nc we're scared of their shadows. A friend of mine sold his obx house because he was certain it was going to get washed away because hurricanes were here to stay. Oops. There are many examples of things like this. I have zero thoughts on next year but a much below normal east seems less likely than an aob one. One thing I'm getting sick of is a persistent +nao. Dec-Jan came on over +1.5 each. Feb may as well. That's just not common and since Jan of 11 the + bias is stark. That will reverse at some point. I dont care about temps as long as we don't roast. I'm sick of relying of sketchy setups to give us the snow we're getting. We should be very thankful for what we got this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 I agree Fozz. Cycles appear everywhere in weather patterns over multi year periods. We had a mega east coast hurricane cycle in the first decade of the 21st century. Coastal residents from tx to nc we're scared of their shadows. A friend of mine sold his obx house because he was certain it was going to get washed away because hurricanes were here to stay. Oops. There are many examples of things like this. I have zero thoughts on next year but a much below normal east seems less likely than an aob one. One thing I'm getting sick of is a persistent +nao. Dec-Jan came on over +1.5 each. Feb may as well. That's just not common and since Jan of 11 the + bias is stark. That will reverse at some point. I dont care about temps as long as we don't roast. I'm sick of relying of sketchy setups to give us the snow we're getting. We should be very thankful for what we got this year. http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif don't hit me, WinterwxLuvr made me do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wwang/cfsv2fcst/imagesInd3/glbSSTSeaInd6.gif don't hit me, WinterwxLuvr made me do it Hint of Modoki el nino in there as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Lol. Mitch just reminded me of another thing i'm not going to track much over the next 6-8 months. Early call...mod Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 21z SREF mean made a jump north for the Wednesday night system with the 0.10" line now north of DC. Will this be the start of a northward trend in the guidance?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 21z SREF mean made a jump north for the Wednesday night system with the 0.10" line now north of DC. Will this be the start of a northward trend in the guidance?? Just about to post that.... I have a feeling that this will be an interesting 0z suite... even though it will likely show in la-la land of the NAM -- aka last few frames of the run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 Just about to post that.... I have a feeling that this will be an interesting 0z suite sleeping on the job Yoda? you can be replaced you know!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 sleeping on the job Yoda? you can be replaced you know!!! I admit I wasn't really thinking of this system till I felt a disturbance in the Force to check the 21z SREFs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Just about to post that.... I have a feeling that this will be an interesting 0z suite... even though it will likely show in la-la land of the NAM -- aka last few frames of the run I didn't even realize Wed night was in play. 18z GFS was way south at tht time range. Gotta get my head back Iin the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I didn't even realize Wed night was in play. 18z GFS was way south at tht time range. Gotta get my head back Iin the game. I don't think it is really for us... but the movement of the SREFs intrigue me. Besides, not much else to track for the next week or so IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 23, 2015 Author Share Posted February 23, 2015 what's odd about that sref run is that the 700mb and 850mb RH maps both look like a miss maybe there's one member or family that's showing a big hit that's skewing the qpf? idk.....any thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 what's odd about that sref run is that the 700mb and 850mb RH maps both look like a miss maybe there's one member or family that's showing a big hit that's skewing the qpf? idk.....any thoughts? DCA 21z SREF Plumes -- http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/fplumes/index2.php?YMD=20150222&RT=21&PRM=Total-SNO&SID=DCA&INC=ALL&NNC=&max=&min=&mZOOM=7&mLAT=37.606711416872095&mLON=-78.59679154381752&mTYP=roadmap ARP1 crushes DC with a foot NMN3/MBP3/MBP1 are 4-7" range Every other member is below the mean (which is 1.41) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 what's odd about that sref run is that the 700mb and 850mb RH maps both look like a miss maybe there's one member or family that's showing a big hit that's skewing the qpf? idk.....any thoughts? Probably means that only one or two members show a hit. 18z GFS tracked the low off Daytona Beach. ETA: Well it's more like 3 or 4 members. Still a hater of this event, but I guess with no blocking the PV over New England could get shoved out of the way by an amped up southern stream. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Like i said this morning. It is coming north. I am the anti ers . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 The GFS ensembles seem to pop a persistent southeast ridge after this week. Good for Boston, terrible for us. Strange...it looks as if a NAO is trying to pop as well...too little too late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
high risk Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 00z NAM did not come north. excellent discovery by Yoda that the 21z SREF mean hinting at a northward trend was caused by a few aggressive members. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 00z NAM did not come north. excellent discovery by Yoda that the 21z SREF mean hinting at a northward trend was caused by a few aggressive members. Well I saw what mitch said and I went to investigate Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think the steady cold breaks after the next week but the pattern will remain variable enough to thave fluke snow chances after that. Long shots but trackable stuff if anyone is even still interested by then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Lol. Mitch just reminded me of another thing i'm not going to track much over the next 6-8 months. Early call...mod Nina Don't look for warmth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I think the steady cold breaks after the next week but the pattern will remain variable enough to thave fluke snow chances after that. Long shots but trackable stuff if anyone is even still interested by then. In other words, typical first 2/3 of March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 In other words, typical first 2/3 of March?I wouldn't call it typical. lots of years March is a straight torch with no chsnce. We had 2 cold snowy marches in a row in the area and some forget the ones where winter is just flat over by March 7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I see room for the Friday system to trend north given the h5 pattern. Thursday not so much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 So yeah... about the 00z GGEM on Day 6 -- late Saturday night into Sunday... huge snowstorm... 2mT in the 20s during "event" at DCA GFS says no, UKIE I guess is a no (only can see the MSLP map for now) We'll see what the Euro says soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 So yeah... about the 00z GGEM on Day 6 -- late Saturday night into Sunday... huge snowstorm... 2mT in the 20s during "event" at DCA This is going to get shown going to our west a lot, kinda like the last one started out as. This tine not the super arctic but better high location. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 This is going to get shown going to our west a lot, kinda like the last one started out as. This tine not the super arctic but better high location. It actually almost looks like an overrunning event when it starts out Meteogram at DCA suggests mainly all snow -- 25mm or so total accumulation ETA: Looks like GGEM is the only model that shows this "event" ETAA: Took a quick glance at the 12z EPS members, unless I am reading them wrong, it looks like some show the same idea as tonight's GGEM run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 I agree Fozz. Cycles appear everywhere in weather patterns over multi year periods. We had a mega east coast hurricane cycle in the first decade of the 21st century. Coastal residents from tx to nc we're scared of their shadows. A friend of mine sold his obx house because he was certain it was going to get washed away because hurricanes were here to stay. Oops. There are many examples of things like this. I have zero thoughts on next year but a much below normal east seems less likely than an aob one. One thing I'm getting sick of is a persistent +nao. Dec-Jan came on over +1.5 each. Feb may as well. That's just not common and since Jan of 11 the + bias is stark. That will reverse at some point. I dont care about temps as long as we don't roast. I'm sick of relying of sketchy setups to give us the snow we're getting. We should be very thankful for what we got this year. This. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 Radar filling in out west. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 It actually almost looks like an overrunning event when it starts out Meteogram at DCA suggests mainly all snow -- 25mm or so total accumulation ETA: Looks like GGEM is the only model that shows this "event" ETAA: Took a quick glance at the 12z EPS members, unless I am reading them wrong, it looks like some show the same idea as tonight's GGEM run 00z NAVGEM scrapes us... best frame is 156 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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