AvantHiatus Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 March 1? http://suncalc.net/#/38.9029,-76.9991,7/2015.03.01/16:13 Length of day is increasing by nearly 3 minutes a day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Yeah pretty much. Granted, having cold around for 2-3 weeks in a row will increase your chance of suitable thermal support coinciding with precipitation. The pattern variability has been exceptional since 2010, often alternating between snow drought and massive dumpage. Not really, but location matters to an extent. Here, 2011 and this year (most likely) will end slightly below avg, 2013 slightly above, 2012 well below, 2014 well above. Seems pretty consistent from an overall standpoint. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Not really, but location matters to an extent. Here, 2011 and this year (most likely) will end slightly below avg, 2013 slightly above, 2012 well below, 2014 well above. Seems pretty consistent from an overall standpoint. I thought about this but didn't want to revive old memories of some bad winters for you guys. Over in the Coastal mid-atlantic and SNE it has been more contrasted. This winter was like a mutual version of 2010-2011. Horrible compared to last winter here, aside from the icebox conditions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I didn't check last night's run but there's 11 members hitting dca with 2" or more from the coastal on thur that the ops quietly slide south. A good # more drop an inch. Seems unlikely in the face of all op runs but it would be funny to back into another one. Your area is in a better spot. I'm rooting for you after yesterday. Any p003's ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Not too worried about the "pattern." Hopefully this winter (and last) have finally proven that a lot of what makes it snow here is pure luck and timing. Outside of dream patterns like 2009-2010, the rest is mainly up to chance. Last winter and this one we had the benefit of a very negative EPO to deliver shots of cold straight out of the arctic into the east. Without any NAO help those shots were transient but the EPO was so consistent they just kept coming one after another. I think some make too much of the NAO as if it is the only factor, but it is one of them major ones. I think a better way to look at it would be to take the EPO, PNA, AO, NAO and if you factor in the state of all 4 you can get a good measure of our snow chances. The shame about the NAO this year was we had such a favorable EPO/PNA that with any help from the AO/NAO we could have had another 2010 type winter. In the end we did ok because of the pacific but were denied a historic winter, at least in terms of snowfall, due to a crappy atlantic. I guess my way of looking at it, if we have both a favorable Atlantic and Pacific then its probably going to snow. If both are unfavorable its probabably not, and when one of the two is good then its possible but we need luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 If we start seeing the run over run tick of less squish and more amp it wouldn't surprise me. Too bad there's nothing in the ns to interact and tug at the precip shield. Looks like a compact system and not much to suggest otherwise. Va tidewater has a decent shot at something. The trough axis is just a little too far east this week, then it retrogrades but instead of shifting a little west it suddenly dumps into the west pushing ridging up the east coast. We get 3 squashed waves then a cutter if that's right. Models have had a hard time getting things right from outside 48 hours so I am not sold on day 5 stuff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Gfs has two frontal waves, both look squished and unimpressive. The southeast ridge seems to be damping out everything. During a good pattern shortwave troffs can amplify and phase, in this pattern everything flattens out between Texas and Georgia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Any p003's ? Not really. Maybe 1. The majority get precip closer to us than the op though. We'll know if we're in the game or not pretty soon. It's not not looking too good right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I don't care for P003 Thursdays storm just doesn't have enough room to come north with the vortex over New England. 18z GFS shows a troff in the Ohio Valley around 12z Friday and a low offshore, on the outside chance we get snow this week, it's from that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Any p003's ? Not really. Maybe 1. The majority get precip closer to us than the op though. We'll know if we're in the game or not pretty soon. It's not not looking too good right now. Yeah not much of anything in there in terms of actual hits (one fringe job) but the northern trend is something. Speed up that low a bit and we're in business.... Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Not too worried about the "pattern." Hopefully this winter (and last) have finally proven that a lot of what makes it snow here is pure luck and timing. Outside of dream patterns like 2009-2010, the rest is mainly up to chance. We certainly have seen that some of the "absolute" indexes are not absolute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 We certainly have seen that some of the "absolute" indexes are not absolute. We get storms with jacked up indices on a fairly regular basis. If we didn't have a departing record breaking airmass, yesterday would have been mostly rain. Certainly not something were going to repeat anytime soon. Nobody can ever convince me that longwave patterns in the high latitudes aren't a key part of getting snow south of 40N. I'd much prefer to get it right than get lucky. You would think statistically that we are due for a -nao/ao winter. But I looked back and the 90's sure look a lot like the last 3 here and the 90's had a lot of duds. Even worse on the blocking patterns. There some sort of cycle embedded in the chaos. I'll let someone else figure it out. I won't be tracking snow cover stuff this fall. That's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 We get storms with jacked up indices on a fairly regular basis. If we didn't have a departing record breaking airmass, yesterday would have been mostly rain. Certainly not something were going to repeat anytime soon. Nobody can ever convince me that longwave patterns in the high latitudes aren't a key part of getting snow south of 40N. I'd much prefer to get it right than get lucky. You would think statistically that we are due for a -nao/ao winter. But I looked back and the 90's sure look a lot like the last 3 here and the 90's had a lot of duds. Even worse on the blocking patterns. There some sort of cycle embedded in the chaos. I'll let someone else figure it out. I won't be tracking snow cover stuff this fall. That's for sure. I remember that 90, 91, and most of 92 were bad. Then we started getting good stuff from 94 on for a few years. I think there is plenty that's poorly understood. The last couple of winters have really been pretty good...with no blocking. Had December been anything but awful, this would have been a really good winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Depressing but it's over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Depressing but it's overThis winter or are you already calling off next winter?MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Depressing but it's over Seems like a long winter. I'll bet it's not over. I know what you mean though. We've had a couple of cold storms. I love those. It's hard to not want it to continue. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Depressing but it's over Sucks its going to be so cold this week with little chance of any wave down south rounding the corner and making it up here. By next weekend, well we know how that's likely gonna go. Its not over though. Feels like it right now but its not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Gfs ens suggest late week isn't completely over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Gfs ens suggest late week isn't completely over P003? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I love surprise snowstorms Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 P003? Haha, not this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I love surprise snowstorms Well, get ready. If we get one, it'll be a surprise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Well, get ready. If we get one, it'll be a surprise. They all are!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I love surprise snowstormsyesterday was not a surprise though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 yesterday was not a surprise though but it was a nice overperformer. a few high-end models showed 8-12" but did anyone seriously believe them before yesterday morning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 but it was a nice overperformer. a few high-end models showed 8-12" but did anyone seriously believe them before yesterday morning?no but that was all based on dc area history. Randy aND ernie getting fired btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 After seeing the GEFS I am a little more bullish with the Friday event. Here's where I stand now on chances of 1"-3" in Leesburg this week. Wendsday Night P003 : 1% Friday Morning : 30% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 yesterday was not a surprise though It was Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 When I say surprise I don't mean we wake up tomorrow and it's snowing...I'm saying that the pattern or modeling is ugly then suddenly the worm turns as yesterday did. Only Ji wasn't surprised because the 18z gfs showed some snow a few days ago...but this thing was dead in the water for a few days but started to come back.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 23, 2015 Share Posted February 23, 2015 We get storms with jacked up indices on a fairly regular basis. If we didn't have a departing record breaking airmass, yesterday would have been mostly rain. Certainly not something were going to repeat anytime soon. Nobody can ever convince me that longwave patterns in the high latitudes aren't a key part of getting snow south of 40N. I'd much prefer to get it right than get lucky. You would think statistically that we are due for a -nao/ao winter. But I looked back and the 90's sure look a lot like the last 3 here and the 90's had a lot of duds. Even worse on the blocking patterns. There some sort of cycle embedded in the chaos. I'll let someone else figure it out. I won't be tracking snow cover stuff this fall. That's for sure. Obviously no science in this statement. But if anything I think we are due for a warm winter. The past 2 have been very cold. I would be surprised if we had a 3rd cold one in a row. And if we were to average above normal it does not mean it wont snow. I agree on the snow cover tracking. I am still not convinced it means anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.