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Mid FEB through March Threats/Snow Storms


mitchnick

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We gotta get it done this week or else three weeks from now.

First ten days of March may be good for Boston and crummy for us because the southeast ridge returns.

That is not the southeast ridge, it's called Spring. Granted, the pacific does enter into some alteration. It's a double dose of pain. You need not be depressed 8 months of the year, learn to enjoy the warm season.

:facepalm:

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That is not the southeast ridge, it's called Spring. Granted, the pacific does enter into some alteration. It's a double dose of pain. You need not be depressed 8 months of the year, learn to enjoy the warm season.

:facepalm:

No offense but of your 2,019 posts, i think 2,019 are negative. 

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No offense but of your 2,019 posts, i think 2,019 are negative. 

I kinda agree with him here. Get it done 3 weeks from now? Lol its practically summer then. This is the week, with well below normal temps. Counting on mid March to deliver something given how the pattern is likely to evolve, well, that may be overly optimistic. There is not likely to be a repeat of last March.

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GEM, RGEM, and to some extent the GFS, are all on to maybe a little(and I do mean little) something for tomorrow. Thurs-Fri time frame is our next shot, although low prob for now. Late next weekend looks like a west TX to Montreal track. Still plenty of time for that to trend in our favor ;)

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Wintery mix may have a point as the 8-14 day outlook does predict above normal temperatures (i.e., a southeast ridge) for the southeastern US and below normal temperatures for the northeastern US including the mid-Atlantic… 

What I did was loop the GFS 500 mb pattern.  Loop shows the SE ridge popping.

We can get snow in March but each passing day has a drop in probability.  That is

one reason Wes goes to FL after the first few days of March.  People are correct,

if we don't get enjoyable snow this week, the chances fall off but do not vanish.

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What I did was loop the GFS 500 mb pattern.  Loop shows the SE ridge popping.

We can get snow in March but each passing day has a drop in probability.  That is

one reason Wes goes to FL after the first few days of March.  People are correct,

if we don't get enjoyable snow this week, the chances fall off but do not vanish.

No it doesn't vanish. We can still score a wet snow bomb thats gone the next day. This week is very likely the last shot at getting some snow that might stick around more than a few hours after it ends.

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Ukie and euro are very similar looking with a light event late thurs into friday. I suppose there's a chance that the little piece of energy responsible for the light snow has a shot at interacting with the coastal but for now everything looks pretty boring. Next weekend is looking wet.

Yeah at this point it looks like we may waste a really cold week. And its much too late in winter for that. It is what it is. The way it feels out there today, even with the snow cover, I have a touch of spring fever.

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Ukie and euro are very similar looking with a light event late thurs into friday. I suppose there's a chance that the little piece of energy responsible for the light snow has a shot at interacting with the coastal but for now everything looks pretty boring. Next weekend is looking wet.

The Thursday vort on the euro esne mean is close enough to keep some mild interest in the Thursday into Friday wind.  After that it looks like the pattern will be for a cutter or two with the ridge retrograding off the west coast.  

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The Thursday vort on the euro esne mean is close enough to keep some mild interest in the Thursday into Friday wind. After that it looks like the pattern will be for a cutter or two with the ridge retrograding off the west coast.

I didn't check last night's run but there's 11 members hitting dca with 2" or more from the coastal on thur that the ops quietly slide south. A good # more drop an inch. Seems unlikely in the face of all op runs but it would be funny to back into another one. Your area is in a better spot. I'm rooting for you after yesterday.

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3333 feet in downtown Boone.  True there is a lot of snow due to elevation and being on the western side of higher mountain ridges.

Beautiful area. Love Blowing Rock too, which is at 4k feet I believe.. Years ago around Xmas I drove from my brother's in Greensboro NC where it was pleasant and mid 40s, to Blowing Rock where it was in the low 20s with snow and wind. Different world in the high country there.

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Not too worried about the "pattern." Hopefully this winter (and last) have finally proven that a lot of what makes it snow here is pure luck and timing. Outside of dream patterns like 2009-2010, the rest is mainly up to chance.

Yeah pretty much. Granted, having cold around for 2-3 weeks in a row will increase your chance of suitable thermal support coinciding with precipitation.

 

The pattern variability has been exceptional since 2010, often alternating between snow drought and massive dumpage.

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Euro ens mean is a bit better looking than the op for thurs. Needs some work but could see it do something.

If we start seeing the run over run tick of less squish and more amp it wouldn't surprise me. Too bad there's nothing in the ns to interact and tug at the precip shield. Looks like a compact system and not much to suggest otherwise. Va tidewater has a decent shot at something.

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It's already well understood by everyone here that we've had just about zero blocking this winter... so of course a +PNA will be much more crucial for winter weather... learn a bit of context before barging in.

 

He literally said nothing else besides "a -PNA pattern is crap". He didn't mention any of these other things that you are inserting in for his argument.

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