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Mid FEB through March Threats/Snow Storms


mitchnick

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Pretty active but for now models are keeping most everything to the south. Ukie gives us a couple inches Thurday night into Friday. We'll probably get surprised again by something and not do he week+ away fail thing.

I like surprise snows....in case anyone hasn't noticed me saying that since December :)

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The setup at the surface is good, stj waves in the gulf with cold in place, but this winter I'm not sure the pattern favors the northern stream phasing and bringing it up. Ever since the AO/nao flipped positive in dec getting phasing to happen southeast of us has been a lost cause. We have got all our snow from un phased systems come from the west. Either clippers, overrunning, or frontal wave lows. My fear with this setup is the seasonal trend argues these gulf waves probably won't phase and then stay squashed under the highs. Then once the cold relaxes some northern stream system will pull in the gulf moisture and come across but by then we could have temp issues. But as this weekend proved that could work if we get lucky with cold in the way. Of course squashed depends on where you live. There are people in this forum a long ways south of me.

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The setup at the surface is good, stj waves in the gulf with cold in place, but this winter I'm not sure the pattern favors the northern stream phasing and bringing it up. Ever since the AO/nao flipped positive in dec getting phasing to happen southeast of us has been a lost cause. We have got all our snow from un phased systems come from the west. Either clippers, overrunning, or frontal wave lows. My fear with this setup is the seasonal trend argues these gulf waves probably won't phase and then stay squashed under the highs. Then once the cold relaxes some northern stream system will pull in the gulf moisture and come across but by then we could have temp issues. But as this weekend proved that could work if we get lucky with cold in the way. Of course squashed depends on where you live. There are people in this forum a long ways south of me.

Semi-squashed can work for me at times. But not full-on squashed ;)

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CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook still call for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation with the best chance for substantial rain/snow being the March 2/3 period (according to NAEFS).  For those of us too far south to enjoy heavy snow yesterday this is likely the last week that the 8-14 day outlook matters. 

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Yep, Richmond missed yesterday completely. 7 inch snow pack from Monday storm is fast melting today. Looking at next 2 week window as last opportunity to get a good storm in here before climo really gets tough. Here's hoping for one last storm

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CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook still call for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation with the best chance for substantial rain/snow being the March 2/3 period (according to NAEFS).  For those of us too far south to enjoy heavy snow yesterday this is likely the last week that the 8-14 day outlook matters. 

 

The early March time frame seems to make some sense. As the current pattern begins to relax we should see some kind of storm. Obviously the question by then is going to be temps. But as last year proved. We can do a March storm here. I personally would like to see one more event and then torch. By the time mid March gets here I am ready for those perfect 70 degree days.

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The early March time frame seems to make some sense. As the current pattern begins to relax we should see some kind of storm. Obviously the question by then is going to be temps. But as last year proved. We can do a March storm here. I personally would like to see one more event and then torch. By the time mid March gets here I am ready for those perfect 70 degree days.

I would rather March be cold, even if it doesn't snow. The later I have to start dealing with the lawn and mowing the grass the better.

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I would rather March be cold, even if it doesn't snow. The later I have to start dealing with the lawn and mowing the grass the better.

Any possibility that the inevitability of Spring may work in our favor and could push a gulf low north running it into a northern stream system promoting a phase or even a battleground over the mid atlantic region for a week or two? Sort of like we experienced yesterday?

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Any possibility that the inevitability of Spring may work in our favor and could push a gulf low north running it into a northern stream system promoting a phase or even a battleground over the mid atlantic region for a week or two? Sort of like we experienced yesterday?

Anything is possible, I am sure there will be a chance or 2 of snow but who knows how it will materialize. The PNA is heading into negative territory and the AO/NAO show no signs of going negative. I think the best shot is over the next 7-10 days, and it would be nice if one of these southern waves could sneak up here this week. Probably the last of the really Arctic air masses we will see this winter.

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I have no idea why we're remaining so cold in this setup, but I hope we flip to blowtorch very soon. This winter needs a bullet to its head already. Tired of shutouts, cold rain and cold damage to newly planted trees and shrubs from last year.

 

I feel bad for those in our forum that are S&E of DC (you, Wes, etc).  You guys have been pretty much shut out with the exception of the Valentine's Day storm. 

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You mean you just had one not everyone got a good event. It snowed 1 inch on Saturday. Hoping there is a storm that gets another 6+ inches here in southern Maryland north.

Yes, I realized that looking at totals this morning. We got lucky with 8 inches here but not everyone did so apologies. Hopefully we can all cash in next time.

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Does put the day 5 stuff in perspective when it's 250 miles north with a system from 48 hours ago.

Weak signal but the 6z gefs has 2 solid hits and a decent scrape. Highs have trended weaker heights higher as time closes in for the last month. Still a low probability event but a good bit of time in front of us before writing it off.

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