BristowWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 00z GFS pretty much shows nothing snow-wise to track for the next week or so at least Well you never know what "event" will turn out to be the event of the winter...I think we just had it but at least there was one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Winteraddict Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Well you never know what "event" will turn out to be the event of the winter...I think we just had it but at least there was one. You mean you just had one not everyone got a good event. It snowed 1 inch on Saturday. Hoping there is a storm that gets another 6+ inches here in southern Maryland north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 So, when we getting more snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Let's track another storm! Perhaps Maryland will get another foot of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 So, when we getting more snow Next weekend. The weekend rule is in effect. You get another 14 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 So, when we getting more snow Pretty active but for now models are keeping most everything to the south. Ukie gives us a couple inches Thurday night into Friday. We'll probably get surprised again by something and not do he week+ away fail thing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Pretty active but for now models are keeping most everything to the south. Ukie gives us a couple inches Thurday night into Friday. We'll probably get surprised again by something and not do he week+ away fail thing. I like surprise snows....in case anyone hasn't noticed me saying that since December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The setup at the surface is good, stj waves in the gulf with cold in place, but this winter I'm not sure the pattern favors the northern stream phasing and bringing it up. Ever since the AO/nao flipped positive in dec getting phasing to happen southeast of us has been a lost cause. We have got all our snow from un phased systems come from the west. Either clippers, overrunning, or frontal wave lows. My fear with this setup is the seasonal trend argues these gulf waves probably won't phase and then stay squashed under the highs. Then once the cold relaxes some northern stream system will pull in the gulf moisture and come across but by then we could have temp issues. But as this weekend proved that could work if we get lucky with cold in the way. Of course squashed depends on where you live. There are people in this forum a long ways south of me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The setup at the surface is good, stj waves in the gulf with cold in place, but this winter I'm not sure the pattern favors the northern stream phasing and bringing it up. Ever since the AO/nao flipped positive in dec getting phasing to happen southeast of us has been a lost cause. We have got all our snow from un phased systems come from the west. Either clippers, overrunning, or frontal wave lows. My fear with this setup is the seasonal trend argues these gulf waves probably won't phase and then stay squashed under the highs. Then once the cold relaxes some northern stream system will pull in the gulf moisture and come across but by then we could have temp issues. But as this weekend proved that could work if we get lucky with cold in the way. Of course squashed depends on where you live. There are people in this forum a long ways south of me. Semi-squashed can work for me at times. But not full-on squashed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 psuhoffman, how much snow did you get last night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook still call for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation with the best chance for substantial rain/snow being the March 2/3 period (according to NAEFS). For those of us too far south to enjoy heavy snow yesterday this is likely the last week that the 8-14 day outlook matters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rmcwahoo Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Yep, Richmond missed yesterday completely. 7 inch snow pack from Monday storm is fast melting today. Looking at next 2 week window as last opportunity to get a good storm in here before climo really gets tough. Here's hoping for one last storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 CPC's 6-10 and 8-14 day outlook still call for below normal temperatures and above normal precipitation with the best chance for substantial rain/snow being the March 2/3 period (according to NAEFS). For those of us too far south to enjoy heavy snow yesterday this is likely the last week that the 8-14 day outlook matters. The early March time frame seems to make some sense. As the current pattern begins to relax we should see some kind of storm. Obviously the question by then is going to be temps. But as last year proved. We can do a March storm here. I personally would like to see one more event and then torch. By the time mid March gets here I am ready for those perfect 70 degree days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 psuhoffman, how much snow did you get last night? 8-9" best guess. Lots of drifting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 The early March time frame seems to make some sense. As the current pattern begins to relax we should see some kind of storm. Obviously the question by then is going to be temps. But as last year proved. We can do a March storm here. I personally would like to see one more event and then torch. By the time mid March gets here I am ready for those perfect 70 degree days. I would rather March be cold, even if it doesn't snow. The later I have to start dealing with the lawn and mowing the grass the better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 8-9" best guess. Lots of drifting. That's what I like to hear. Thats great! I wanted Maryland to get shellacked by heavy snow and deathbands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 22, 2015 Author Share Posted February 22, 2015 RGEM says we get some light snow tomorrow, but nothing bigger until you go south trend north? probably not on this one http://weather.gc.ca/data/model_forecast/colour_images/12_054_R1_north@america_I_4PAN_CLASSIC@012_024.jpg http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/rgem/2015022212/rgem_asnow_eus_11.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I have no idea why we're remaining so cold in this setup, but I hope we flip to blowtorch very soon. This winter needs a bullet to its head already. Tired of shutouts, cold rain and cold damage to newly planted trees and shrubs from last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I would rather March be cold, even if it doesn't snow. The later I have to start dealing with the lawn and mowing the grass the better. Any possibility that the inevitability of Spring may work in our favor and could push a gulf low north running it into a northern stream system promoting a phase or even a battleground over the mid atlantic region for a week or two? Sort of like we experienced yesterday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Let's track another storm! Perhaps Maryland will get another foot of snow Jebman, parts of Maryland got an inch some others farther south did even worse Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Jebman, parts of Maryland got an inch some others farther south did even worse We need a snow that will hit those parts of MD with more then. I have an idea. Lets truck snow from New England to south Maryland! That would work! Its a win/win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Any possibility that the inevitability of Spring may work in our favor and could push a gulf low north running it into a northern stream system promoting a phase or even a battleground over the mid atlantic region for a week or two? Sort of like we experienced yesterday? Anything is possible, I am sure there will be a chance or 2 of snow but who knows how it will materialize. The PNA is heading into negative territory and the AO/NAO show no signs of going negative. I think the best shot is over the next 7-10 days, and it would be nice if one of these southern waves could sneak up here this week. Probably the last of the really Arctic air masses we will see this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I have no idea why we're remaining so cold in this setup, but I hope we flip to blowtorch very soon. This winter needs a bullet to its head already. Tired of shutouts, cold rain and cold damage to newly planted trees and shrubs from last year. I feel bad for those in our forum that are S&E of DC (you, Wes, etc). You guys have been pretty much shut out with the exception of the Valentine's Day storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 GFS has trended north with tomorrow's system the last 4 runs or so. Gets precipitation just south of DC this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 GFS has trended north with tomorrow's system the last 4 runs or so. Gets precipitation just south of DC this run. Does put the day 5 stuff in perspective when it's 250 miles north with a system from 48 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I feel bad for those in our forum that are S&E of DC (you, Wes, etc). You guys have been pretty much shut out with the exception of the Valentine's Day storm. Me too... I hope we can get one final area-wide winter storm that leaves everyone happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 You mean you just had one not everyone got a good event. It snowed 1 inch on Saturday. Hoping there is a storm that gets another 6+ inches here in southern Maryland north. Yes, I realized that looking at totals this morning. We got lucky with 8 inches here but not everyone did so apologies. Hopefully we can all cash in next time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 I feel bad for those in our forum that are S&E of DC (you, Wes, etc). You guys have been pretty much shut out with the exception of the Valentine's Day storm. Wes needs a decent snow, as does Noreastericane. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 GFS has trended north with tomorrow's system the last 4 runs or so. Gets precipitation just south of DC this run. 6z RGEM has some light stuff up this way tomorrow. I was curious to see what the GFS would do, and it now looks similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 22, 2015 Share Posted February 22, 2015 Does put the day 5 stuff in perspective when it's 250 miles north with a system from 48 hours ago. Weak signal but the 6z gefs has 2 solid hits and a decent scrape. Highs have trended weaker heights higher as time closes in for the last month. Still a low probability event but a good bit of time in front of us before writing it off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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