Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,609
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    NH8550
    Newest Member
    NH8550
    Joined

Mid FEB through March Threats/Snow Storms


mitchnick

Recommended Posts

  • Replies 3.4k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

Not liking 12z runs overall, really don't see how we get anything but an overrunning to rain event, -PNA  patterns just suck.

 

The PNA was predominantly negative prior to the Feb 5/6, 2010 storm and during PDII, but good call.

 

2003 02 10 -86.70

2003 02 11 -34.02

2003 02 12 6.36

2003 02 13 32.40

2003 02 14 2.92

2003 02 15 -33.39

2003 02 16 -46.39

2003 02 17 -27.59

2003 02 18 -70.75

2003 02 19 -91.73

2003 02 20 -62.63

 

2010 02 01 -13.59

2010 02 02 -72.22

2010 02 03 -91.68

2010 02 04 -121.77

2010 02 05 -73.37

2010 02 06 117.56

2010 02 07 197.42

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The PNA was predominantly negative prior to the Feb 5/6, 2010 storm and during PDII, but good call.

 

2003 02 10 -86.70

2003 02 11 -34.02

2003 02 12 6.36

2003 02 13 32.40

2003 02 14 2.92

2003 02 15 -33.39

2003 02 16 -46.39

2003 02 17 -27.59

2003 02 18 -70.75

2003 02 19 -91.73

2003 02 20 -62.63

 

2010 02 01 -13.59

2010 02 02 -72.22

2010 02 03 -91.68

2010 02 04 -121.77

2010 02 05 -73.37

2010 02 06 117.56

2010 02 07 197.42

 

-PNA combined with ++NAO/AO = crap pattern. Those other years had great blocking.

 

The EPO ridge may help us but it sure as hell isn't reliable on its own when everything else looks awful. But I'm content with this winter after today's storm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

-PNA combined with ++NAO/AO = crap pattern. Those other years had great blocking.

 

The EPO ridge may help us but it sure as hell isn't reliable on its own when everything else looks awful. But I'm content with this winter after today's storm.

Today was a beast. It put me at average for the season and everything else from here on out is gravy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

-PNA combined with ++NAO/AO = crap pattern. Those other years had great blocking.

 

The EPO ridge may help us but it sure as hell isn't reliable on its own when everything else looks awful. But I'm content with this winter after today's storm.

 

Yeah but you can't just throw out blanket statements without producing data to back it up. He didn't mention anything about the NAO/AO, wise guy.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't sleep on the d5+/- period. It's either a slider or a hit. Euro ensembles have enough scrapes and hits to keep an eye out. Beyond that is too far to worry about.

 

Yeah, keeping an eye on late next week.  GFS has been advertising some kind of snow to ice scenario next weekend, but those details are kind of silly to dig into very much at this point.

 

But even before that, both the GFS and NAM hint at some light stuff on Monday (especially the NAM from what I saw).  It's not a lot, but with cold temperatures, might be an interesting dusting or topper.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah, keeping an eye on late next week. GFS has been advertising some kind of snow to ice scenario next weekend, but those details are kind of silly to dig into very much at this point.

But even before that, both the GFS and NAM hint at some light stuff on Monday (especially the NAM from what I saw). It's not a lot, but with cold temperatures, might be an interesting dusting or topper.

It will probably trend to a 1-2" kinda deal. #snowtown

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yeah but you can't just throw out blanket statements without producing data to back it up. He didn't mention anything about the NAO/AO, wise guy.

It's already well understood by everyone here that we've had just about zero blocking this winter... so of course a +PNA will be much more crucial for winter weather... learn a bit of context before barging in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...