Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If any storm forms in that time frame, track could be anywhere. We could have a d5 hecs on the ops that turns into a d1 buffalo express. Extremely hostile long lead pattern. It's probably a small miracle we even have a chance. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Amped thats because it takes too long to come East, its too far out to worry regardless but the setup is there Yeah, GFS is more suppressed so that trough gets a bit sheared or comes slowly. The set-up was there the other day, or at least it's shown a good storm in that time frame previously. Doesn't show it now, but it does bear watching as you say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 If any storm forms in that time frame, track could be anywhere. We could have a d5 hecs on the ops that turns into a d1 buffalo express. Extremely hostile long lead pattern. It's probably a small miracle we even have a chance. I thought next week into the first couple of days of March would be another chance, perhaps our last real one. At the least, I'd like to see us end up with an epic cold February at this point and possibly another shot after Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 The storm on the GFS does look formidable though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Amped thats because it takes too long to come East, its too far out to worry regardless but the setup is there Long wave troff axis could be anywhere from E Kansas to western North Carolina and we'd have a Ku. I want to punch it in the face for choosing Utah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Jesus christ look at 500mb on the GFS @ 159 hours it looks like its gonna form a superstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Jesus christ look at 500mb on the GFS @ 159 hours it looks like its gonna form a superstorm you might want to hold off the HECS and superstorm talk everytime you see a good s/w. Reputation buddy:)! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Haters gonna hate, it looked damn good to me, GGEM looks decent @ 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baseball0618 Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Jesus christ look at 500mb on the GFS @ 159 hours it looks like its gonna form a superstorm If you want to look at an h5 prog that "by looks only" screams something big this is one below. Just ignore the time stamp and the fact ths it's in fantasyland but just the look of it you could make a statement like this above, not the look you are referencing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Did finally look at Euro weeklies on wxbell.. not as promising as the avg. Looks like cold shots keep coming but maybe intermixed with some warmer spells and cold shot moderation once we get into March.. kinda repetitive otherwise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Lol- euro is going for it on march 1st. Are we a march snowtown now? ETA: oops. just checked mid levels. It goes for it before it stops going for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Lol- euro is going for it on march 1st. Are we a march snowtown now? ETA: oops. just checked mid levels. It goes for it before it stops going for it. not ready to write that one off yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 not ready to write that one off yet nobody should. We don't even know how/when/where shortwaves are going to track during that period. If the PV anvil is overdone for midweek we could have a storm on thurs-fri. Who knows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 Weak: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 20, 2015 Share Posted February 20, 2015 This is gonna be sweet.. http://weather.graphics/climate/atlas.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Our chances of warming anytime soon are diminishing, the EPO looks less likely to go positive and the Euro wants to tank it again into March. NAO also shows signs of at least getting back towards neutral. Could be more of the same with this pattern lingering into spring like last year. As for snow chances I like our odds better if the first gulf wave is the one to come up late next week. If its the second wave over the weekend by then the high would probably be on the way out and we run into major temp problems. The first gulf low could still change over with no blocking but it would probably at least have to start as a good bit of snow first. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Something else to keep an eye on., several gefs members show a hit around 132hrs with the ejecting cutoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Something else to keep an eye on., several gefs members show a hit around 132hrs with the ejecting cutoff. There is so much going on next week the models will struggle with specifics. What we know is it will be cold and the STJ is active and could try to throw several waves at the cold. We just need one to time up well before we lose the cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 euro control has a 1-2 foot storm but its d9 and 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Have we had an 8 day total dry stretch this winter? Even if we have, I don't think we're waiting for 8+ days for more precip. Looks too active and I question how squashed everything looks right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 I know we're still a week away from MAR, but close enough to consider the precip map of the CFS2 that has held this look for MAR for a month Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 I know we're still a week away from MAR, but close enough to consider the precip map of the CFS2 that has held this look for MAR for a month it looks like Boston has lost their way....we need to get them back on track Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 it looks like Boston has lost their way....we need to get them back on track fook em'! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 There's going to be an awesome HP sprawling the country come end of next week. Question will become, do we get a shortwave to eject eastward in time before it loses its potency. The setup is there for something epic guys, maybe the best setup we've seen for a MECS all season. Will the pieces align though? Who the hell knows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 00z GFS the shortwave is cutting, but with the HP anchored in the CAD is remarkable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Sigh, shortwave takes too long to come out.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 Sigh, shortwave takes too long to come out.... yep... there are several waves along the gulf. We need the first one or second to be the one to amplify. This run suppresses the first two waves and them amplifies the 3rd once the High moves far enough east to allow it to cut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 GGEM looks fairly good at 144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 21, 2015 Author Share Posted February 21, 2015 GGEM looks fairly good at 144 look a whole lot better at 174 hrs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted February 21, 2015 Share Posted February 21, 2015 look a whole lot better at 174 hrs. I didn't know porn was allowed here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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