WinterWxLuvr Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 You could just come out and say that it won't snow and you'd have a really good chance at being correct. No models needed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 You could just come out and say that it won't snow and you'd have a really good chance at being correct. No models needed. I kinda like midweek next week for now.. but that's about it. We might be done after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 You could just come out and say that it won't snow and you'd have a really good chance at being correct. No models needed. right on !!just a continuation of the past!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 we must continue to endure the unendurable....and then some Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I would actually love to see that. It would be painful if it weren't such a comical ending. I'm rooting for winter to end like it started with a Miller A with a perfect track but not enough cold air (if I'm remembering correctly in November). Our winter misery is a flat circle. Other painful possible endings: March Miller A with 10 hours of moderate snow all during daylight with temps at 35F. 10 days of record cold in late March followed by a rain storm Florida snow Miller B with freezing rain changing to cold rain followed by a meteor strike that vaporizes the oceans Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 we must continue to endure the unendurable....and then some Or we can just rationally discuss what chance there may be while acknowledging the risks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Or we can just rationally discuss what chance there may be while acknowledging the risks. no agreed I was just thinking about my initial thoughts in the old thread that we have to endure 2 clippers until we get our chance anything that falls from the clippers is a fluke/bonus, and then we wait to see how next week shakes out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 we must continue to endure the unendurable....and then some you don't really have much choice!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 We have 2 other threads for agony and despair. Let's keep it there please. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eurojosh Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The GFS snowmap through 72hrs is amusing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 It would be nice if the weenie rants were kept in the thread where they belong. EDIT: WxUSAF beat me to it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 12z GFS likes that inverted/norlun trough with weekend clipper bomb .. sketch though i guess we did sketch with the blizzard.. undoubtedly more likely N/E of DC Balt if it happens tho. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 12z GFS likes that inverted/norlun trough with weekend clipper bomb .. sketch though i guess we did sketch with the blizzard.. undoubtedly more likely N/E of DC Balt if it happens tho. last night's Euro gave BWI .17" qpf for the weekend clipper Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 12z GFS likes that inverted/norlun trough with weekend clipper bomb .. sketch though i guess we did sketch with the blizzard.. undoubtedly more likely N/E of DC Balt if it happens tho. Yeah. It's been a consistently advertised feature, but I can't see it getting much farther S/W of Philly given where this system is originating. But, looks like maybe a cartopper for most folks at least? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yeah. It's been a consistently advertised feature, but I can't see it getting much farther S/W of Philly given where this system is originating. But, looks like maybe a cartopper for most folks at least? trough axis is still a bit too far east as the u/l comes down from Canada it looks like it wants to swing out a bit to the west which would get it further south but that ridge won't allow it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 trough axis is still a bit too far east as the u/l comes down from Canada it looks like it wants to swing out a bit to the west which would get it further south but that ridge won't allow it GFS keeps snow going overnight Saturday. We seem to be good at long duration snows totaling 1-2" this year, so maybe this works out for us too. Will certainly be cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Well, if the 850s are even close to being correct, its going to be a freezing cold weekend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 GFS has a similar look to it as last night's Euro with 2 spokes of precip rotating through the area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 If you compare h5 @ 78 to 84 from 6z you can see the lead piece of energy carve things out a little better. End result is marginally different. It's not a good track with the ull either way. Diving down and spinning overhead isn't going to do it. Pretty energetic overall though. We're in the game for snow to fall on Saturday at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Much stronger vort out west for next week's deal. Much different than the pancake look that's been advertised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 trough axis is still a bit too far east as the u/l comes down from Canada it looks like it wants to swing out a bit to the west which would get it further south but that ridge won't allow it Yes, it's close but not quite able to dig under a bit farther. If the ridge to the west was sharper (I think), that may be able to happen. Either that, or hope the darned thing blows up sooner and closer to the coast so we get some backlash moisture. GFS keeps snow going overnight Saturday. We seem to be good at long duration snows totaling 1-2" this year, so maybe this works out for us too. Will certainly be cold enough. Yeah, if it's going to be brutally cold and windy on Sunday...would be nice to see at least some snow to go along with it and give the appearance of being wintry. I'm dubious we see more than flakes, but we'll see how that evolves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 10, 2015 Author Share Posted February 10, 2015 .15" at BWI and .08" at both DCA and IAD thru Sunday 7AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yeah. It's been a consistently advertised feature, but I can't see it getting much farther S/W of Philly given where this system is originating. But, looks like maybe a cartopper for most folks at least? They're both very powerful at 500mb so some snow does seem to fly. Though I still have trouble buying why it's going to keep snowing for a long while so lightly on the backside like the Euro and such. It seems the trend with the first may be slower to bomb out now and I'd kind of imagine the same with the second. Maybe NE Md has some more hope.. I don't think there's much upside for most of us though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Much stronger vort out west for next week's deal. Much different than the pancake look that's been advertised. Not sure that's what we necessarily want...at least not too much? Well, hard to say...fine line between too squashed and stronger, fringing us or allowing too much warmth to move in. Argh! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Not sure that's what we necessarily want...at least not too much? Well, hard to say...fine line between too squashed and stronger, fringing us or allowing too much warmth to move in. Argh! We want it stronger. Antecedent airmass should be good even with a west track. But it has to be juiced to get a front end thump. Sheared mess has little room for error because the precip real estate is so small. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 162 looks intriguing enough to me... nice HP and what looks to be decent confluence should block it from cutting (famous last words...) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 .15" at BWI and .08" at both DCA and IAD thru Sunday 7AM That could be good for an area wide 2-3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 This run should be a good hit midweek. Tho the setup is iffy.. but I could see it working out to some degree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 DC snowing at 171 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 We want it stronger. Antecedent airmass should be good even with a west track. But it has to be juiced to get a front end thump. Sheared mess has little room for error because the precip real estate is so small. Agreed...that's more or less what I was thinking, but the way things have gone a "stronger vort" is cause for some alarm (or at least makes one think, "here we go again!"). But in this case as you say, we have quite and antecedent cold air mass over us. Maybe, just maybe, that will do us some good this time around. We definitely need it to be juiced for some good overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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