mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Let's focus on after the N. Stream loses hold, say 2/15 and beyond Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Let's focus on after the N. Stream loses hold, say 2/15 and beyond Can't happen soon enough. Another problem we've had these past few weeks.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 I honestly think we have 2 more clippers to our north to endure and then we get a procession of systems coming out of the SW. Like I said in the other thread, operationals have them as well as the ensembles. Details will obviously have to wait. The fact that both the gfs and euro have been showing systems coming from the south on an "on and off" fashion is a good signal since the models always like to rush the pattern change. I think we will have to wait and see how the first system treats us to determine if the change means snow for us. Obviously, if they go to our NW or we miss them, then maybe the change won't make a difference for us, but I honestly believe we have a few shots at least left in us this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 The good news for the first system is that we will already be in the cold regime. It won't be like other pattern changes where each storm in a series represents a step down in temps and waiting on the cold to arrive just in time. Also doesn't look like these systems will need to be timed perfectly which makes it much easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I honestly think we have 2 more clippers to our north to endure and then we get a procession of systems coming out of the SW. Like I said in the other thread, operationals have them as well as the ensembles. Details will obviously have to wait. The fact that both the gfs and euro have been showing systems coming from the south on an "on and off" fashion is a good signal since the models always like to rush the pattern change. I think we will have to wait and see how the first system treats us to determine if the change means snow for us. Obviously, if they go to our NW or we miss them, then maybe the change won't make a difference for us, but I honestly believe we have a few shots at least left in us this year.Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Spacing of the hypothetical waves will be important. Cold highs will always be on the move. The less time between storms (assuming it's active) is pretty important. Even without traditional blocking, lobes of or the pv itself can keep things from quickly cutting and warmth flooding in before anything frozen falls. A cluster of euro ens members every run the last couple days are showing a nice wsw upper level flow with precip running along a boundary well in front of lp's in the d8-10 range. D10-15 looks active. I have unlimited patience because my expectations are pretty low. I'll track anything because it's always fun for me regardless of the outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Did Mr z resign? I think he makes it tougher on himself. Say we were surfers and had been trying to work with an Oceanic service for over 20 years. This service tells us that in 3-5 days the 20' waves will be right where we are situated. We wait, no 20' waves come, some 8' do though. Next time the 20' waves hit up on the next island. We would pretty quickly question the efficiency of the service we depend on. They in turn could tell us that the oceans are big bodies of waters and tough to predict. This is what we have with the models and we seem to be content with that and still look toward them. I don't, quit doing that pretty quick like around 2003. I think we have to understand that the ambition of trying to predict the weather has a number of tools that are useful and useless. Water vapor, radar , 850 placement, they rarely let you down. Trying to predict whether a low pressure is going to move east along NC/VA line or northeast thru PA is something that really is not predicatable beyond 2-3 days and we would be far saner to not try to do that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Did Mr z resign? I think he makes it tougher on himself. Say we were surfers and had been trying to work with an Oceanic service for over 20 years. This service tells us that in 3-5 days the 20' waves will be right where we are situated. We wait, no 20' waves come, some 8' do though. Next time the 20' waves hit up on the next island. We would pretty quickly question the efficiency of the service we depend on. They in turn could tell us that the oceans are big bodies of waters and tough to predict. This is what we have with the models and we seem to be content with that and still look toward them. I don't, quit doing that pretty quick like around 2003. I think we have to understand that the ambition of trying to predict the weather has a number of tools that are useful and useless. Water vapor, radar , 850 placement, they rarely let you down. Trying to predict whether a low pressure is going to move east along NC/VA line or northeast thru PA is something that really is not predicatable beyond 2-3 days and we would be far saner to not try to do that. i agree with the general premise here....we expect models to perform at a level they are not consistently capable of performing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 GFS looks much better @ h5 for valentines day. Decent dig considering the trough axis. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 GFS looks much better @ h5 for valentines day. Decent dig considering the trough axis. I'm not out that far yet, but it seems NE will miss for the most part on the next clipper (Thurs/Friday), so I think the worm has turned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 wow, at 138 hrs. the GFS has the slp into South Central VA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Looks interesting but good luck getting that to happen lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I'm not out that far yet, but it seems NE will miss for the most part on the next clipper (Thurs/Friday), so I think the worm has turned. It's a big change Mitch. flags aplenty but light/moderate event for us on the panels. Very cold too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 It's a big change Mitch. flags aplenty but light/moderate event for us on the panels. Very cold too. and, most importantly, I think Ian is all in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Those 850s tho. Man. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 It's a big change Mitch. flags aplenty but light/moderate event for us on the panels. Very cold too. well, not as big a change as maybe it looks as I8Z took it over top us to over DOV and east off the coast but as far as snowfall goes, yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Those 850s tho. Man. When's the last time we had 4-6" of snow with -15 850's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 well, not as big a change as maybe it looks as I8Z took it over top us to over DOV and east off the coast but as far as snowfall goes, yes It's a pretty big change in the upper levels. I'm very skeptical. This is not a way our latitude gets snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 When's the last time we had 4-6" of snow with -15 850's? I'm not desperate enough to chase inverted trough snow from an unlikely northern stream scenario to begin with. Especially since I'm gone thru Sunday morning. But.. that's like -28C into WVClimo's hood if my small map squinting is working. Poo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Tha'ts 3 huge storm for Newfoundland this week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I'm not desperate enough to chase inverted trough snow from an unlikely northern stream scenario to begin with. Especially since I'm gone thru Sunday morning. But.. that's like -28C into WVClimo's hood if my small map squinting is working. Poo. I didn't look to close at the 12z euro because I was out all day and 18z gfs was already out. It's actually a more amped but similar version of the 12z euro. South trend? nah...maybe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Well, the last 12 minutes of this thread has me to say the least, confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 I think what sets the stage for the GFS doing what it did for the 14/15th is today/tomorrow's storm heights are really lowered along the east coast with the trough bottoming out in Florida the next system is then cause to come a bit more south than prior runs and misses (finally!) Mass. then, when the 14/15th system comes along, heights are lowered AND there's a bit of a traffic jam in the Atlantic thanks to today's and the Thirs/Fri system that just misses Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=162ℑ=data%2Fgfs%2F00%2Fgfs_namer_162_precip_p36.gif&model=gfs&area=namer¶m=precip_p36&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150209+00+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I didn't look to close at the 12z euro because I was out all day and 18z gfs was already out. It's actually a more amped but similar version of the 12z euro. South trend? nah...maybe That's a tough turn to make any day--where it comes in makes it even tougher. It is an anomalous air mass diving in so maybe that helps maximize potential but still hard to think it can do much here unless it changes a good bit still. Ensemble mean was well north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 That's a tough turn to make any day--where it comes in makes it even tougher. It is an anomalous air mass diving in so maybe that helps maximize potential but still hard to think it can do much here unless it changes a good bit still. Ensemble mean was well north. GFS has been pretty deadly w/in 7 days for the past month or so, save a few normal wobbles anyway, maybe it's some atmospheric memory working going back to earlier in the season when the clippers did pretty much what the GFS is showing this run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 GFS has been pretty deadly w/in 7 days for the past month or so, save a few normal wobbles anyway, maybe it's some atmospheric memory working going back to earlier in the season when the clippers did pretty much what the GFS is showing this run No comment good buddy. eta: j/k of course.. but come on it's 6 days out. gfs hasn't been deadly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted February 9, 2015 Share Posted February 9, 2015 I have to agree. The GFS has done well this past month. I have always put more wait in the Euro, but as of late, GFS has done well IMP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 9, 2015 Author Share Posted February 9, 2015 No comment good buddy. but you just did Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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