mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 11:17 PM, snowfan said: Accuwx has low 60's the first week of March. It's hard getting in the mood for cold once you get the first taste of spring. look at HM's tweet referencing 1888 and 1943 (9th one down) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted February 17, 2015 Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 11:19 PM, mitchnick said: look at HM's tweet referencing 1888 and 1943 (9th one down) ooh. If it's going to be cold I'd much rather it remain cold. I don't want cold, warm and back to cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 17, 2015 Author Share Posted February 17, 2015 On 2/17/2015 at 11:24 PM, snowfan said: ooh. If it's going to be cold I'd much rather it remain cold. I don't want cold, warm and back to cold. agree as long as it snows again, I'm fine with a warm up since that's to be expected in MAR but if it gets warm, then cold and it doesn't snow, then the heck with the cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I hope March absolutely torches. I want to see a huge SE ridge develop and stay....put a bullet right between the eyes of this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 latest Sref time line looks to bring precip into the area by Sat. morning, which is closer to the Canadian, the fastest of the globals in this case, the earlier the better for the front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Will anybody be surprised Thursday when we are looking at a completely different scenario for the weekend? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 2:12 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Will anybody be surprised Thursday when we are looking at a completely different scenario for the weekend? Only if it's a big snow scenario for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 2:19 AM, Amped said: Only if it's a big snow scenario for us. I'll bet it will be colder than the models are showing now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 2:12 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Will anybody be surprised Thursday when we are looking at a completely different scenario for the weekend? I suspect he'll be shocked to hear of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 2:21 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: I'll bet it will be colder than the models are showing now. Me too. I have a hard time believing such an epic cold airmass would be dislodged so easily. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 2:21 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: I'll bet it will be colder than the models are showing now. Possible, need the southern stream to cut off and the northern stream to be faster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 2:26 AM, Amped said: Possible, need the southern stream to cut off and the northern stream to be faster. fortunately, there's time for that, but it better start showing up on the models in some degree or another ideally by tomorrow and Thursday at the latest Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Once the high slides off the coast the airmass will moderate very quickly even with cold wedged into ga. Frozen chances and what type will depend mostly on how quick precip can get in here. Upper air pattern looks pretty terrible for any low to pass south of us. Maybe something weak. The weak low traversing the lake in advance hurts as well. I know much can change and agree it's a pretty stout antecedent airmass. But its on the move. My main hope is to not get .5-1" of rain with temps above freezing. That would be a sad way to end a pretty damn good winter week. Thump of whatever frozen-dryslot-fropa is my guess of a best case scenario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 NAM looks like it may want to get things going by first thing Sat. morning or soon thereafter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 2:49 AM, mitchnick said: NAM looks like it may want to get things going by first thing Sat. morning or soon thereafter http://www.instantweathermaps.com/NAM-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021800&time=6&var=CSNOW&hour=084 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 The models didn't nail down even the right day for this past event at this range.... the NAM at the end of its run was focusing on the Tuesday night/Wednesday morning event that the GFS had shifted over to lock on to. I know you all know this and have commented on it, but again, the events outside of 72-hrs have not shown their final solution from late January through February so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 2:49 AM, mitchnick said: NAM looks like it may want to get things going by first thing Sat. morning or soon thereafter You made me look. lol. Just for the exercise... 18z gfs @ 90 digs the vort back towards vegas with slower progression. NAM is digging down through CO with faster progression Better confluence and heights above us as well... But it's the nam @ 84. If the GFS looks like it in an hour then the mood will change in here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 18, 2015 Author Share Posted February 18, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 3:07 AM, Bob Chill said: You made me look. lol. Just for the exercise... 18z gfs @ 90 digs the vort back towards vegas with slower progression. NAM is digging down through CO with faster progression Better confluence and heights above us as well... But it's the nam @ 84. If the GFS looks like it in an hour then the mood will change in here. fwiw, srefs looked the same, the last 2 runs hey, I know it's the NAM at the end of its run, but it shows us a better scenario by starting 12 hrs.+ earlier......hmmm, starting early......sound familiar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 all we really know right now, once again, is that a moisture package will travel somewhere east of the Mississippi into some cold air. Will it be Ohio Valley, Applchns, VA/NC border or off Georgia coast is unknown but all of those will be portrayed over next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxw Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 are we positive it's a "moisture package"? On 2/18/2015 at 3:14 AM, Tenman Johnson said: all we really know right now, once again, is that a moisture package will travel somewhere east of the Mississippi into some cold air. Will it be Ohio Valley, Applchns, VA/NC border or off Georgia coast is unknown but all of those will be portrayed over next few days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 3:17 AM, wxw said: are we positive it's a "moisture package"? And that is always the big if. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 GFS with an even more amped up look than 18z. Probably not going to end well for anyone southeast of Buffalo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 4:00 AM, Amped said: GFS with an even more amped up look than 18z. Probably not going to end well for anyone southeast of Buffalo. Rainer up through Boston. Next... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Gfs is pretty hideous for the weekend. Mitch said it couldn't get worse earlier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 Wow we sure know how to trend the wrong way like no other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 2:21 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: I'll bet it will be colder than the models are showing now. Coldest air in Central Va since 2000 and we get rain the next day? Just sounds wrong, and do not see that happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 3" of rain for SNE, epic floods followed by a flash freeze. Upper 50s and rain for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 I really hate the new gfs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 4:17 AM, Amped said: 3" of rain for SNE, epic floods followed by a flash freeze. Upper 50s and rain for us. I usually am ok with going back in time and looking at analogs, but I feel like this would just be such a chore to find. What are the analogs for DC to go from lower teens to rain and 50's the next day and then back down to the teens the next day? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted February 18, 2015 Share Posted February 18, 2015 On 2/18/2015 at 4:21 AM, gymengineer said: I usually am ok with going back in time and looking at analogs, but I feel like this would just be such a chore to find. What are the analogs for DC to go from lower teens to rain and 50's the next day and then back down to the teens the next day? 1/17/1994 definitely had both cool days surrounding it. It can happen if the high moves offshore and the flow amplifies, shorter wavelengths at this time of year can make it easier. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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