Fozz Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:03 AM, snowfan said: Thru 99.... Just lock it up. I was just gonna post that smiley. Maybe the best run all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Nor Easter Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:05 AM, Highzenberg said: Can a meteorologist chime in here, is it because of the progressive look of the shortwave that even with a 988mb bombing low east of NJ there isn't much heavy QPF west of the low? Not a met but I can tell you that the flow around low over the GL hurts the CCB (cold conveyer belt). Makes it hard for the low to get heavy precip deep into the cold sector. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:07 AM, Angela T said: Any thoughts on RIC this run? Please 4 inches or so it looks like Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:06 AM, stormtracker said: I don't think there's anybody here who wouldn't. All we need now is this to hold for 16 more GFS runs! I'm still not the hugest fan of the 500mb look.. could mess us up without much problem but it's good as is of course. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 What are the ratios used on Instant weather maps? It will be cold enough for 1:12 or 1:15...right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:06 AM, Ji said: why. Euro has been following the lead of gfs for the past month. It's shocking you have 10,000 followers on FB. Americans are so dumb. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:07 AM, Angela T said: Any thoughts on RIC this run? Please I joined over 4 years ago. I have not really asked too many ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:08 AM, BTRWx said: Dead center I-95 blockbuster from the GFS http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2015021400&time=48&var=ASNOWI&hour=105 You know it's a terrific run when my area is in a snow hole and I don't even care Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:05 AM, Highzenberg said: Can a meteorologist chime in here, is it because of the progressive look of the shortwave that even with a 988mb bombing low east of NJ there isn't much heavy QPF west of the low? b/c we ain't Boston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:06 AM, stormtracker said: I don't think there's anybody here who wouldn't. All we need now is this to hold for 16 more GFS runs! Na, we just need this solution for 11 more runs. If it holds for 11 more runs, the last five will too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:09 AM, Angela T said: I joined over 4 years ago. I have not really asked too many ? It's been answered twice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:06 AM, usedtobe said: Nice hit but for me it's getting close to a mix for awhile, still a good run but I don't want it to get any more amped. Maybe Ji does but for us colser in guys, we don't ....DCA is never really close...so I'd think you might be ok...warmest level is 850mb, so as long as you are below 0 there I'd think you'd be ok, but yes...me and you don't want to see it much more W.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Morch Madness Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 GFS looks great for you guys, really hoping this one pans out for DC and Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 With how rounded the trough is, temps verbatim on these runs doesn't matter. There is going to be a tight gradient regardless, just need to root that we end up on the right side of it..... This lead wave is actually helping a lot. Without it the low would most certainly come inland. The lead wave puts the baroclinic zone farther East. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:05 AM, Ian said: 4-8 or so for everyone. I'd take it. ORH gets that much every two days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Angela T Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:11 AM, Demeter said: It's been answered twice Not for Richmond, no it has not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:08 AM, Nor Easter said: Not a met but I can tell you that the flow around low over the GL hurts the CCB (cold conveyer belt). Makes it hard for the low to get heavy precip deep into the cold sector. Yea thought so, the low seems to mature around 108-114 hours but it is up in NE by then, be careful what you wish I guess because if it does mature earlier we may end up raining Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:12 AM, H.E. Pennypacker said: GFS looks great for you guys, really hoping this one pans out for DC and Philly Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Gfs is an awesome hit. God, please hold. If this disappears like last storm 4 days out, i will find nearest cliff and jump. Just sick run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tom Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:13 AM, Angela T said: Not for Richmond, no it has not. yes it has I saw it twice scroll back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:09 AM, FairfaxVAsnowlover said: What are the ratios used on Instant weather maps? It will be cold enough for 1:12 or 1:15...right? They use the "Evan Kuchera" method to calculate ratios. I don't know what that is, but I think it takes into account what the column looks like. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/faq.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demeter Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:13 AM, Angela T said: Not for Richmond, no it has not. Please read back through, it has: 1 reply said you are on the southern edge but still looks good and another said 4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:09 AM, FairfaxVAsnowlover said: What are the ratios used on Instant weather maps? It will be cold enough for 1:12 or 1:15...right? It doesn't look all that cold in the snowmaking levels....I'd probably use climo - 11/12:1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:13 AM, Angela T said: Not for Richmond, no it has not. RIC gets .70" qpf thru Thursday 1AM, but there's a warm layer so there's snow, then sleet, then back to snow I only have 6 hour intervals so it's hard to know exactly the changeover but you get some more qpf after 1AM Thursday and that would be snow I'll let you know in a sec Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherwonder Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:08 AM, WxWatcher said: 4 inches or so it looks like On 2/14/2015 at 4:05 AM, snowfan said: you get in on the action, angela. Maybe the southern extent of the heaviest, but it's not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 14, 2015 Author Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:16 AM, mitchnick said: RIC gets .70" qpf thru Thursday 1AM, but there's a warm layer so there's snow, then sleet, then back to snow I only have 6 hour intervals so it's hard to know exactly the changeover but you get some more qpf after 1AM Thursday and that would be snow I'll let you know in a sec an additional .07" qpf falls as snow between 1AM Thurs and 7AM Thurs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 Hopefully no more crazy runs where the low goes 1000 miles east of Georgia coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Expat Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 As long as I can't see the top of the grass, I will be happy. That has not happened for me this year! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 3:59 AM, Nor Easter said: GFS @69 500mb backing in more west and digging with northern s/w coming in from Canada. S/w over the 4 corners is about to phase with Baja energy which is ejecting earlier than 18z. This is gonna be a good hit for us. Another great post. Good to see that the key features come together in less than 72 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 14, 2015 Share Posted February 14, 2015 On 2/14/2015 at 4:19 AM, FairfaxVAsnowlover said: As long as I can't see the top of the grass, I will be happy. That has not happened for me this year! That has been my goal all winter as well... 3 inches will not do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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