Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 nobody mentioning the Euro disaster day 9 and 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MacintoshPro Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:29 PM, Ji said: nobody mentioning the Euro disaster day 9 and 10 Disaster? In what way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:26 PM, Bob Chill said: Ukie was 1 wave last night. Front running vort amplified and gave us a light to mod snowfall mon night-early tues morn. precip shield reaches us at 90hrs or so on this one. same deal - one vort Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:34 PM, paulythegun said: precip shield reaches us at 90hrs or so on this one. same deal - one vort It's plausible. The strung out 2 storm could end up being the wrong solution. Ukie is an outlier but 2 runs in a row of the same evolution makes it interesting. Having the gfs/euro similar to each other and against the idea doesn't lend much confidence. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 UKIE is out through 90 on WxBell. Precip moves in at 00z Tuesday. Waiting for next panels for totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:34 PM, Mikethemanatee said: Disaster? In what way? i was half kidding but if the New "Southern trend" is going to continue...the modeled rainstorm for us will be snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:37 PM, Ji said: i was half kidding but if the New "Southern trend" is going to continue...the modeled rainstorm for us will be snow GFS is snow so stick with that for now. Euro would be half decent if there wasn't a big ns low sliding across. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:36 PM, Bob Chill said: It's plausible. The strung out 2 storm could end up being the wrong solution. Ukie is an outlier but 2 runs in a row of the same evolution makes it interesting. Having the gfs/euro similar to each other and against the idea doesn't lend much confidence. ukie was also the first model to show suppressed 2 days before the other models followed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:38 PM, Ji said: ukie was also the first model to show suppressed 2 days before the other models followed Tracks the lead low through TN/NC and off the coast near VA beach. 2-4" cold powder. There is no second storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:42 PM, Bob Chill said: Tracks the lead low through TN/NC and off the coast near VA beach. 2-4" cold powder. There is no second storm. thats totals of a good clipper. I guess i would take it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 looks like SREF phased the baja low with the northern energy? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:47 PM, Ji said: thats totals of a good clipper. I guess i would take it 8-10" in the northern neck. Good stuff is close by. Looks like the JMA keys on the lead vort but misses south and no second storm? I don't have good panels. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:47 PM, Ji said: thats totals of a good clipper. I guess i would take it Well, since you have a choice, I'm glad you're accepting that. 2-4 is a bargain at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Looks like about 0.3-0.35ish for Arlington on the UKIE adding up the 3 hour panels. It's been doing pretty well this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:49 PM, Bob Chill said: 8-10" in the northern neck. Good stuff is close by. Looks like the JMA keys on the lead vort but misses south and no second storm? I don't have good panels. ggem/jma/ukmet 1st wave....GFS/Sref/Euro 2nd wave? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 What are the implications of the baja vort being phased in fully? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:49 PM, Ji said: looks like SREF phased the baja low with the northern energy? I saw the 87hr precip panel...looked decent and north but we know at that range Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:51 PM, WxWatcher said: What are the implications of the baja vort being phased in fully? i would think the potential for a more amped storm which now we want after days of not wanting an amped storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:51 PM, WxWatcher said: What are the implications of the baja vort being phased in fully? Stronger storm and would have an easier time amplifying earlier and coming north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:51 PM, nj2va said: Looks like about 0.3-0.35ish for Arlington on the UKIE adding up the 3 hour panels. It's been doing pretty well this winter. Look like close to .40 through the area? I counted 3 panels: .08 + .25 + .06 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So we have had to the west, big hit, south, no storm at all, some storm but still mostly south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 13, 2015 Author Share Posted February 13, 2015 JMA is a miss as mentioned for Tues/Wed, but the 192 500mb map is a wowzer and ripe for a big southern system with a vortex in SE Canada Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:54 PM, Bob Chill said: Look like close to .40 through the area? I counted 3 panels: .08 + .25 + .06 Good call, I didn't include the first panel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The Euro ens eman is pretty much a miss to the south. I little light snow on it but not even .10" liquid equivalent. That's not a great sign. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:59 PM, nj2va said: Good call, I didn't include the first panel. Temps in the mid to upper teens the whole time as well. Man do I want the ukie to be right. I'll just hug it until it drops the idea. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 8:00 PM, usedtobe said: The Euro ens eman is pretty much a miss to the south. I little light snow on it but not even .10" liquid equivalent. That's not a great sign. Well, the 12z Thursday mean looked good supporting yesterday's 12z hit too, so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 8:00 PM, usedtobe said: The Euro ens eman is pretty much a miss to the south. I little light snow on it but not even .10" liquid equivalent. That's not a great sign. Yesterday I believe 80% were good hits, so I'm not sure how much we can value Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 6:55 PM, usedtobe said: The UKMET surface looks more amplified than the other models and looks interesting at 96 hrs. Wish I got it's QPF. I'd bet it look decent but that's just a guess. And at 0z on Thursday (wed night) it was the least amped. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:38 PM, Ji said: ukie was also the first model to show suppressed 2 days before the other models followed Haha, yes..........you beat me to it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Windman18 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 So it looks like both the euro and gfs shifted a little north. Wouldn't be surprised to see the gfs move back towards the 12z Thursday solution either during tonights runs or tomorrow mornings runs. 12z Thursday gave most of Maryland 5 or 6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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