snowfan Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Certainly expect more change. It's not often coastal NC is the jackpot zone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 6:25 PM, snowfan said: We really don't need interval snow maps. End of event is fine. I like seeing how it progresses. AcePuppy, thanks for posting those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RIC_WX Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Regardless of what the model physics spit out, conventional wisdom says for BNA to receive heavy snow and RIC not from the same system is pretty unusual. That is enough to convince me this solution is wrong, irrespective of what right becomes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxdude64 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 OBX is beautiful in snow if you are wanting to chase, btw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Another good reason why people shouldn't worry too much is... It's 96 to 108 hours away. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Very difficult to know what the Euro shows when you don't have access to the maps. If Matt says better that's what I'm going with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 6:30 PM, cae said: I like seeing how it progresses. AcePuppy, thanks for posting those. More helpful would be 6 hr precip/850 maps like NCEP Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 0z euro 12z euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Leaking Gut Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 6:41 PM, zwyts said: 0z euro 0zeuro.PNG 12z euro hour123.PNG that looks like a substantial shift, also look a little colder? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 6:41 PM, zwyts said: 0z euro 0zeuro.PNG 12z euro hour123.PNG Big takeaway, we're still within reasonable shifts of something nice....and I'd rather be hoping for a NW shift than a SE shift. Not a terrible spot to be in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 6:41 PM, zwyts said: 0z euro 0zeuro.PNG 12z euro hour123.PNG It looks like the Euro brought New Jersey further south in the 12z run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 6:44 PM, Leaking Gut said: that looks like a substantial shift, also look a little colder? It's more subtle than substantial, but the orientation is definitely better...there is actually a panel that throws the western extent a little further but I tried to compare equivalent panels in terms of the low....Keep in mind the whole solution is still goofy with elongated lows, and a frontrunning low and multiple lows....I don't know that we will get hit, but I don't think anything is resolved yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 6:46 PM, cae said: It looks like the Euro brought New Jersey further south in the 12z run. I didn't do a great job snipping the panels in an identical manner...lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 6:45 PM, DCTeacherman said: Big takeaway, we're still within reasonable shifts of something nice....and I'd rather be hoping for a NW shift than a SE shift. Not a terrible spot to be in. Spot on! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 6:46 PM, cae said: It looks like the Euro brought New Jersey further south in the 12z run. The frame capture has been shifted north, North Carolina is not visible in the 12z pic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 6:33 PM, stormtracker said: Another good reason why people shouldn't worry too much is... It's 96 to 108 hours away. To be honest.. so far this season...once we got inside of 96 hours... it has been pretty much a lock. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 6:51 PM, interstate said: To be honest.. so far this season...once we got inside of 96 hours... it has been pretty much a lock. I think DC metro at least has had some meaningful (and bad) trends within 72-96.... the 12 panel is hour 123 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 6:48 PM, zwyts said: I didn't do a great job snipping the panels in an identical manner...lol No worries. I just thought it was funny. Thanks for posting it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 6:52 PM, zwyts said: I think DC metro at least has had some meaningful (and bad) trends within 72-96.... the 12 panel is hour 123 The UKMET surface looks more amplified than the other models and looks interesting at 96 hrs. Wish I got it's QPF. I'd bet it look decent but that's just a guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 6:55 PM, usedtobe said: The UKMET surface looks more amplified than the other models and looks interesting at 96 hrs. Wish I got it's QPF. I'd bet it look decent but that's just a guess. Yes...and it is faster/earlier which leads me to believe it is better... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 6:55 PM, usedtobe said: The UKMET surface looks more amplified than the other models and looks interesting at 96 hrs. Wish I got it's QPF. I'd bet it look decent but that's just a guess. It's has been the most consistent model. One reason is that it only has one low instead of two waves with varying degrees of injection of energy from the baha low like the other models. Which way are you leaning? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 The fact we cant get a block is beyond depressing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 Not sure if it was mentioned but the storm kind of reminds me of Feb 3 1996 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:08 PM, Highzenberg said: Not sure if it was mentioned but the storm kind of reminds me of Feb 3 1996 cool..I got 7-8" in Silver Spring and yes similar and also with cold that followed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
usedtobe Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:02 PM, packfan98 said: It's has been the most consistent model. One reason is that it only has one low instead of two waves with varying degrees of injection of energy from the baha low like the other models. Which way are you leaning? I'm suitably non-committal. I sort of like the more amplitude idea because of the position and strength of the ridge out west but the northern stream is going to play a big role in what happens and I have no clue about what it will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:14 PM, usedtobe said: I'm suitably non-committal. I sort of like the more amplitude idea because of the position and strength of the ridge out west but the northern stream is going to play a big role in what happens and I have no clue about what it will do. Doesn't look bad at 72hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:09 PM, zwyts said: cool..I got 7-8" in Silver Spring and yes similar and also with cold that followed The Atlantic is a tad different, but both had a big PNA, the 500mb pattern over the CONUS is what matches up for me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packfan98 Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:14 PM, usedtobe said: I'm suitably non-committal. I sort of like the more amplitude idea because of the position and strength of the ridge out west but the northern stream is going to play a big role in what happens and I have no clue about what it will do. Thank you. I'm glad I'm not forecasting this one for us down in NC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:20 PM, paulythegun said: Doesn't look bad at 72hrs Remember, there are two waves...that looks like the first wave at 72 hours, what will most likely impact the DC area is the 2nd wave which doesn't hit until 96-120 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 13, 2015 Share Posted February 13, 2015 On 2/13/2015 at 7:21 PM, Highzenberg said: Remember, there are two waves...that looks like the first wave at 72 hours, what will most likely impact the DC area is the 2nd wave which doesn't hit until 96-120 hours. Ukie was 1 wave last night. Front running vort amplified and gave us a light to mod snowfall mon night-early tues morn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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