Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 2:26 PM, Bob Chill said: 0z Ukie was a total whiff to the south. Almost no precip makes it here.maybe gets us from wave 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 2:45 PM, WxWatcher said: I'm not sure that it is, hence the southerly track i dont know for sure either but it seems that at certain time the track shifts north der to that high "flexing" its muscle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ryanconway63 Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Anybody Else notice how much colder the Ensembles are from the Op Runs right now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 2:41 PM, stormtracker said: It's the only model to show that magical High showing up in Canada. 12z NAM has a 1036 magical High in Western Quebec at 84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 I wouldn't discount any model solution. It's still too far out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:03 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: I wouldn't discount any model solution. It's still too far out.We just can't know yet., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 2:51 PM, ryanconway63 said: Anybody Else notice how much colder the Ensembles are from the Op Runs right now I was just looking at that. 00z GFS and Canadian ensembles look great. It looks like most members are east of the control runs, and the meteograms for DC have shifted to clearly favor snow. The best look I've seen all year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:05 PM, Ian said: We just can't know yet., On 2/12/2015 at 2:58 PM, yoda said: 12z NAM has a 1036 magical High in Western Quebec at 84 I'm not sure how that relates to what the UKMET is showing 30 + hours later though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:16 PM, stormtracker said: I'm not sure how that relates to what the UKMET is showing 30 + hours later though. Its the other model showing a H up where we want it to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:05 PM, Ian said: We just can't know yet., Spread really hasn't narrowed all that much. We're pretty much in the same situation as yesterday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Looking through last night's 00z GFS ensembles, the UKIE looks somewhat like member #3. That ends up with a Miller A dumping snow in hours 156 and 168. http://meteocentre.com/models/get_ensemble.php?mod=ncep_geps&run=00&stn_type=postagestamp&stn=PNM〈=en&map=na&hh=144 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:17 PM, yoda said: Its the other model showing a H up where we want it to be Yeah, but that H slides off the coast post 84 hours...all the models have it there at 84 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 12Z NAM already has precip in the southern plains headed this way at 84 hrs. I know, I know, but the earlier the better so this is a positive http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084ℑ=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150212+12+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:19 PM, Bob Chill said: Spread really hasn't narrowed all that much. We're pretty much in the same situation as yesterday morning. Is the Ukie ejecting the energy in the southwest in weaker waves/pieces? If so, that could potentially work out for us down the road I would imagine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:25 PM, mitchnick said: 12Z NAM already has precip in the southern plains headed this way at 84 hrs. I know, I know, but the earlier the better so this is a positive http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Image.php?fhr=084&image=data%2Fnam%2F12%2Fnam_namer_084_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif&model=nam&area=namer¶m=850_temp_mslp_precip&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20150212+12+UTC&imageSize=L&ps=model I was going to mention that, but didn't feeling like typing up all the disclaimers and dealing with the grief for talking about the 84 hour NAM. It is much quicker Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:26 PM, kurtstack said: Is the Ukie ejecting the energy in the southwest in weaker intermittent weaker waves? If so, that could potentially work out for us down the road potentially. I don't get detailed vort panels. Just precip/pressure/temps. The 2 wave idea is on the table but we really don't want to go down that route. Unless we have a cold air feed, time is our enemy. We want precip in here as quick as possible. Stating the obvious but that's really an important piece. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnowlover Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:28 PM, stormtracker said: I was going to mention that, but didn't feeling like typing up all the disclaimers and dealing with the grief for talking about the 84 hour NAM. It is much quicker as fast as the GFS advertised the other day like 12vhrs earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:28 PM, stormtracker said: I was going to mention that, but didn't feeling like typing up all the disclaimers and dealing with the grief for talking about the 84 hour NAM. It is much quickerlol NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtstack Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:32 PM, Bob Chill said: I don't get detailed vort panels. Just precip/pressure/temps. The 2 wave idea is on the table but we really don't want to go down that route. Unless we have a cold air feed, time is our enemy. We want precip in here as quick as possible. Stating the obvious but that's really an important piece. I don't know. It depends on the spacing between the waves and whether a reinforcing shot of cold air can get in. I wouldn't necessarily say we don't want it, but I'm kinda with you in pulling for the consolidated storm that threads the needle. In fact I'm secretly, and now publicly pulling for a March 1993 type of storm with a track slightly to the SE of that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:28 PM, stormtracker said: I was going to mention that, but didn't feeling like typing up all the disclaimers and dealing with the grief for talking about the 84 hour NAM. It is much quicker dosent the 84 hour NAM have new respect now? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:41 PM, Ji said: dosent the 84 hour NAM have new respect now? Only when the gfs follows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 3:44 PM, Bob Chill said: Only when the gfs follows. ...or it looks good for us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 my stomach gets sick before runs. I always expect a major shift/knockout punch. Not a fun way to live life as a snow hobbyist Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 GFS seems fast too, precip already in SW VA at 96 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted February 12, 2015 Author Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:03 PM, WxWatcher said: GFS seems fast too, precip already in SW VA at 96 High pressure seems to be further north vs. off SE coast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 The NAM was encouraging..but yes I feel like someone is going type next and have the smiley with the ax in his head come visit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Suppressed through 114 it would appear... barely any QPF in TN... 1009 MSLP in S LA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 at this point..more worried about supression(UKMET) than too north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 Its holding back the energy a bit...could be good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted February 12, 2015 Share Posted February 12, 2015 On 2/12/2015 at 4:05 PM, Ji said: at this point..more worried about supression(UKMET) than too north? At this point, I think we should wait...this might be better actually Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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