SleetStormNJ Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The whole area got nailed by a massive inverted trough in March of 2013. Similar setup to this storm. Much colder temps and better ratios this time too if it materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 What do you think goose, any chance that lead vort gets out of the way? Yes because it's such a subtle piece it could very well not end up existing altogether Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The more I look into this, we might have a decent chance for a widespread inverted trough event. Take a look at the March 7-8th 2013 set-up which produced a widespread 5-12" across N/C NJ, NYC, LI (10-20" in Boston of course). The coastal low was well offshore, but the interaction with the upper level vort over NY State allowed for the formation of the inverted trough feature extending NW. Given the presence of this upper vortex in upstate NY, and the energy rounding the base of the trough, this is actually a classic pattern for an impactful / widespread inverted trough. I think this is our best shot w/ the event. "On Thursday, March 7, a shortwave that was previously over southern Canada tracked southeast, splitting into a closed upper level low and reaching western New York, where it began to interact and phase with the upper level low associated with the main coastal low. This setup resulted in the low pressure stalling while becoming more negatively tilted, with a surface inverted trough stretching northwest into the Northeast US region, where widespread heavy snow developed and persisted into Friday, March 8. The storm finally exited the region on Friday evening as the interior ULL tracked offshore, phasing with the coastal ULL." http://www.nycareawe...-storm-summary/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Yes because it's such a subtle piece it could very well not end up existing altogether This would allow the shortwave to amplify and develop much more, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I don't buy the inverted trof setup with this, the 500/700/850 wind flow looks too strong to me, I think either the surface low forms further west and everyone from NJ to NNE is bombed or we miss completely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
+SNfreak21 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 DGEX shows the inverted trough while snowing in the single digits/teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 DGEX shows the inverted trough while snowing in the single digits/teens Wow Boston crushed again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Isotherm Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I think either the surface low forms further west and everyone from NJ to NNE is bombed or we miss completely. I think it's going to be very difficult for the former scenario to occur, but we need some changes in the evolution from what is currently progged. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Idk how you can say it's been a tough winter... Since Jan 15th I have received 26" inches of snow with my total for the winter currently at 31". Also with the two pending storms could make a shot at 40" and it would only be mid Feb. We are still going to be in a very active pattern. Light to moderate events add up big time to our seasonal totals.Never said no snow, I said "tough" referring to complete and udder failure by most models on several occasions... I would concider not seeing much of anything all of December and the better part of January as well as having a blizzard warning for 18-24" 6hrs prior to event and getting a dusting a tough winter.Not to mention a good winter for you does not mean everyone Is having a good winter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mophstymeo Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Never said no snow, I said "tough" referring to complete and udder failure by most models on several occasions... I would concider not seeing much of anything all of December and the better part of January as well as having a blizzard warning for 18-24" 6hrs prior to event and getting a dusting a tough winter. Not to mention a good winter for you does not mean everyone Is having a good winter I agree 100%. I think part of the problem is that for everyone south of NE, this winter has not lived up to its hype. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I agree 100%. I think part of the problem is that for everyone south of NE, this winter has not lived up to its hype. It's cliche but its true, models are trending to a favourable hit for NE yet again with the rest of the upcoming threats.. Not sayin it can't or won't jump back and hit us, but if we're gonna follow model trends why are we ignoring seasonal trends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yanksfan Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I don't buy the inverted trof setup with this, the 500/700/850 wind flow looks too strong to me, I think either the surface low forms further west and everyone from NJ to NNE is bombed or we miss completely. Strongly agree. That H5 setup has a textbook look to it. If not for that runaway vort, the storm would form much closer to the coast, take the BM route, and we all be hammered. I'm not saying this will be the outcome, but something that needs to be watched as a possibility. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The highest baroclinic zone with this will be pretty far east over the Atlantic and the momentum of this thing will be swinging NW to SE. That will probably force the surface low to form east and make it difficult to wrap mid-level moisture very far back to the NW. The whole trof structure would probably need to form further west and become negatively tilted earlier to pull this thing tight to the coast. I've seen these strong Ohio ULLs deliver a few times before. It could happen again but the synoptic look needs to change quite a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Norlun shifts north east on gfs tonight...Long island and ct get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Norlun shifts north east on gfs tonight...Long island and ct get it. Explosive low on the Gfs. H5 looks great. Just need more ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 as is it should be a pretty decent storm for nyc east this run considering how cold it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Explosive low on the Gfs. H5 looks great. Just need more ridging.yes ingredients are there but you cant bake a cake without the oven on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 yes ingredients are there but you cant bake a cake without the oven on Closer to the coast on this run. Just need more ridging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Closer to the coast on this run. Just need more ridging.what's the QPF looking like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I see a northern trend again in the models. To me it looks like another Boston storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I see a northern trend again in the models. To me it looks like another Boston storm. Just need it to dig further south and we will all be golden Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Just need it to dig further south and we will all be golden They have all trended further north this year...look at the Thursday threat? Thats going over vt now.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 They have all trended further north this year...look at the Thursday threat? Thats going over vt now.... Yes but not every threat is the same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Lol.mecs on the ggem lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chietanen Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Surprised not much excitement about this system. Seems it's shaping up to be a decent event for a good portion of the region, and not far off from something much bigger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Lol.mecs on the ggem lolAll we all want is one big storm with 8 inches plus of only and ALL snow is is that so much to ask!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYCGreg Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 I want a huge storm to make up for the busted blizzard. Is that too much to ask for...maybe, but it won't stop me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Lol the ggem is really tucked in south of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Lol the ggem is really tucked in south of LI.What's it's time frame? Saturday morning or Saturday night? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ILoveWinter Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 Surprised not much excitement about this system. Seems it's shaping up to be a decent event for a good portion of the region, and not far off from something much bigger. Too many rollercoasters this winter, need to be closer and see much more model consistency before full on weenie excitement commences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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