IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The GFS is digging the trough even less than 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 inv trough right into nyc this run...2-4 temps in the low teens Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 To bad it's not Saturday lol...that's a 4-8 fall for the area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Light snow Saturday and Saturday night. Temps will be very cold aloft so if we can squeeze out enough moisture ratios should be decent. The GFS also has a strip of moderate snow late Saturday night that jackpots NYC, NNJ, Western LI, the western LHV and from the Poconos up into SE Upstate NY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The rest of LI gets into the action between 06z and 12z Sunday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Light snow Saturday and Saturday night. Temps will be very cold aloft so if we can squeeze out enough moisture ratios should be decent. The GFS also has a strip of moderate snow late Saturday night that jackpots NYC, NNJ, Western LI, the western LHV and from the Poconos up into SE Upstate NY.This was in SNJ NJ at 12z, it will change every run until Friday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 H5 closes off about 100 miles East of ACY. Then the 500mb low jumps East and takes the surface low with it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 SV maps show 1-2" or 2-4" for the area with the inverted trough on Saturday night. 850mb temps run -12C to -16C Saturday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 To bad it's not Saturday lol...that's a 4-8 fall for the area...Is that area wide? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Isentropic, aren't norlun inverted troughs extremely rare for the nyc area? I remember reading that they almost always hit New England Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Is that area wide? It's not a 4-8" snowfall. I don't know where he got that from. Someone could see 3-5" if that verified but we all know how inverted troughs are impossible to predict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Isentropic, aren't norlun inverted troughs extremely rare for the nyc area? I remember reading that they almost always hit New England Yes, it shifted about 75 miles northeast this run. They are extremely difficult to predict and usually come down to the high res short term models such as the RAP and HRRR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Just to give you an idea, the entire area is in the 0.25"+ LE with both events combined. Even 0.25" at 20:1 ratios would be only 5". You would need 0.40" LE at 20:1 average ratio to get 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Just to give you an idea, the entire area is in the 0.25"+ LE with both events combined. Even 0.25" at 20:1 ratios would be only 5". You would need 0.40" LE at 20:1 average ratio to get 8". NYC and east are all over .35". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Isentropic, aren't norlun inverted troughs extremely rare for the nyc area? I remember reading that they almost always hit New England March, 2013 was an inverted trough that gave a huge area very good snows. This setup would support a large scale trough. Not a tiny BS one that benefits only a tiny area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 NYC and east are all over .35". That's close to 5 on a 10-1 ratio. Again yanks fan just humps qpf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Looks like both upton and mt holly think this is a real threat and possibly a big deal late Saturday afternoon into Sunday morning. Just read the latest discussions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 NYC and east are all over .35".We'll see when the soundings come out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 That's close to 5 on a 10-1 ratio. Again yanks fan just humps qpf0.35" at 10:1 is 3.5". Second grade math. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 The QPF shield, albeit light, is surprisingly very expansive for this event. We could probably eek out a few inches ratios could be extremely good perhaps 20:1 or better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 U know its been a tough winter when we're at each other's throats over ratios of a .35" event lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 It's going to shift again next run, and the run after that, and the run after that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't we see this movie last winter or the winter before? The models were all insisting that we were going to get hit with a major norlun, jackpotting our area run after run for days, then less than a day before every model backed off and we got zippo? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 It appears to me this is getting screwed on most models by a subtle piece of energy at 500 front running the main vort which causes the surface low to form too far to the east, f that vort is not there I thing this forms way closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I haven't really looked at this threat until now. But wow, that is a powerhouse vort. 12z mex snow number for kfok is 8 Edit - KISP + KNYC also Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
allgame830 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 U know its been a tough winter when we're at each other's throats over ratios of a .35" event lol Idk how you can say it's been a tough winter... Since Jan 15th I have received 26" inches of snow with my total for the winter currently at 31". Also with the two pending storms could make a shot at 40" and it would only be mid Feb. We are still going to be in a very active pattern. Light to moderate events add up big time to our seasonal totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 Yes, it shifted about 75 miles northeast this run. They are extremely difficult to predict and usually come down to the high res short term models such as the RAP and HRRR. I've noticed that southern Jersey has gotten lucky with inverted troughs quite a few times in recent years. Most of the time they seem to hit southern Jersey, or New England. It's rare for us to get lucky with an inverted trough in the northern Jersey to NYC area. Maybe we're due. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted February 10, 2015 Share Posted February 10, 2015 I've noticed that southern Jersey has gotten lucky with inverted troughs quite a few times in recent years. Most of the time they seem to hit southern Jersey, or New England. It's rare for us to get lucky with an inverted trough in the northern Jersey to NYC area. Maybe we're due. The whole area got nailed by a massive inverted trough in March of 2013. Similar setup to this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Zelocita Weather Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 It appears to me this is getting screwed on most models by a subtle piece of energy at 500 front running the main vort which causes the surface low to form too far to the east, f that vort is not there I thing this forms way closer to the coast. What do you think goose, any chance that lead vort gets out of the way? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted February 11, 2015 Share Posted February 11, 2015 The whole area got nailed by a massive inverted trough in March of 2013. Similar setup to this storm. Climo on theses say sne is favored....I expect 1-2 for the area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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